Abercrombie’s poor polling makes him less effective

A frustrated legislator, veteran Democrat, last week confessed: "When we meet with the governor, we just never know which Neil Abercrombie will show up."

The problem, echoed by several legislators, is that Abercrombie’s meetings with them are used to either spring a new plan on them or subject them to a rambling monologue. "We want to see something in writing after meeting with him," one legislator told me.

For instance, another lawmaker noted that during the summer, Abercrombie said he would support an effort to legalize gambling in Hawaii, but when the issue came up in the state House last week, there was no administration support.

The legislative uncertainty comes after Abercrombie last year failed to win legislative approval for any of his major economic plans.

In the interim, Abercrombie saw his chief of staff, deputy chief of staff, communications director and deputy communications director all resign. Although none of them said Abercrombie caused their departure, it called into question the administration’s stability.

Abercrombie then brought on board a number of legislative and government veterans and suddenly Abercrombie’s much-repeated "New Day Hawaii" had become "Everything new is old again."

The new advisers are former state Reps. Blake Oshiro and Kate Stanley, a pair of bright and articulate legislative leaders, who are now entrusted with bringing home Abercrombie’s legislative agenda.

It is still early in the session, which is expected to end in the first week of May, so Abercrombie still has a chance to steady his relationship with lawmakers.

"The team is working well, we have a lot of good talent and I think we are on the right track," says Jim Boersema, the new communications director brought in when Josh Levinson resigned. If Abercrombie’s touch-and-go relationship with the Democratic Legislature is in doubt, there is no question that his public perception remains bad.

A year ago, the Hawaii Poll had Abercrombie’s job performance rating at 50 percent. At the time that was not a good thing. New governors usually have a honeymoon period where voters give new leaders a chance to learn their jobs.

Abercrombie didn’t have that chance as he plunged into controversy after controversy and essentially spent all his good will in a series of heated clashes with the Legislature and various public interest groups.

This month, Abercrombie’s job performance rating is much worse.

The overall rating? A full 39 percent of the voters polled approve of Abercrombie’s performance, and 54 percent disapprove.

Back in October a national outfit, Public Policy Polling, had Abercrombie with a 30 percent approval rating. The recent Hawaii Poll was taken by the local group Ward Research and had included randomly selected telephone and cell phone calls and had a margin of error of 3.5 percent.

The poll highlights the big Abercrombie drop in the mind of the public. When the various demographic groups are parsed out of the poll, it shows the public displeasure is across the board.

On Oahu 58 percent disapprove, and more than 50 percent of both men and women disapprove of Abercrombie’s performance.

The most serious loss of support comes from union households. Last May, 51 percent of union households supported Abercrombie’s job performance. Today, just 35 percent think he is doing a good job. A full 60 percent of union households are thumbs down on the Abercrombie administration.

This does several things. First, union leaders have a clear signal that they can attack or not cooperate with the administration without fear of losing the support of their members, because the rank and file are already fed up with Abercrombie. Second, the low approval rating means Abercrombie speaks with a little voice when he attempts to appeal to union members for salary and pension reforms.

Finally, the poor numbers devalue Abercrombie’s political potency, making him less of a factor in the upcoming elections.

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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.