Magazines forecasting gloomy days for Warriors

Last year at this time, it was hard for a University of Hawaii football fan to pass a news rack without inhaling the preseason magazines’ heady predictions about the Warriors.

This year?

Well, for the hard-core follower, it might be close-your-eyes time if you can’t handle the unvarnished forecasts.

The consensus of the early magazines that will hit the newsstands this month is that the Warriors will finish no higher than seventh in their inaugural season in the 10-member Mountain West Conference.

They tell you a lot about the perceptions of the Warriors beyond these shores and underline in sometimes glossy color the notion that this is a rebuilding season with a capital "R." Complete with all the challenges that should imply when stepping into a new conference with a paucity of returning starters and transitioning to a new coaching staff’s offensive and defensive schemes.

For all the enthusiasm Norm Chow’s hiring has engendered and the hope that it portends for the long haul, the reality is to buckle up for what shapes up as a decidedly uphill challenge in 2012.

The MWC will be tougher than the WAC has been in years. The nonconference portion of the schedule is more demanding and the combination adds up to a tall order. Gone, for example, are perennial W’s such as New Mexico State and Idaho, to be replaced by Air Force and San Diego State, both on the road.

Or, as someone told Chow the day after taking the job, "Hey, you should have come a year earlier."

Last year UH played the weakest schedule (120th out of 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams) in the nation, according to the NCAA. This year Boise State and Southern California are back on it, along with season-finale tormentor Brigham Young, meaning a return to the postseason will take some doing even with a lower bowl-eligibility threshold.

This season, because UH will play a 12-game schedule, the Warriors need to win six games to qualify for a berth in the backyard Sheraton Hawaii Bowl instead of the seven victories required for a 13-game slate.

Lindy’s predicts, "A .500 record would be something to celebrate."

Phil Steele, whose magazine has generally been among the more optimistic of the preseason seers on UH fortunes through the years, writes, "I will call for UH to have fewer than six wins overall for just the second time in 12 years."

GamePlan, which is still in production and said it is deciding between a seventh- or eight-place finish for UH, notes, " … unless Chow is capable of working some minor miracles, the Warriors are headed for a second straight losing season."

Of course, UH fans should know better than most that predictions made this time of the year best be taken with some salt. Or, in the case of recent history, perhaps a boxcar load. The proof of that being that UH was seemingly everybody’s — the magazines’, coaches’ and media’s — choice to win the Western Athletic Conference championship last year.

And, we all know how that turned out.

Reach Ferd Lewis at flewis@staradvertiser.com or 529-4820.