U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa eased by former Congressman Charles Djou in their November rematch for urban Honolulu’s 1st Congressional District by a comfortable 9-point margin.
That gap was the notable exception in the year of the blowout in Hawaii’s congressional races.
U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono beat former Gov. Linda Lingle by a stunning 25 points in November to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka. Hirono defeated former Congressman Ed Case by 17 points in the Democratic primary in August. Former City Councilwoman Tulsi Gabbard drubbed former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann by 20 points in the Democratic primary in Hirono’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers rural and suburban Oahu and the neighbor islands.
Lingle, Case and Hannemann were considered among Hawaii’s most polished and accomplished politicians. All three campaigned as bipartisan leaders who had the skill and experience to be more effective in Washington, D.C., than their opponents. While varied factors contributed to their defeats, the common denominator — overwhelming rejection by voters — has severely weakened them as viable contenders.
"I think that in all three of those cases, their futures are very much limited," said Neal Milner, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Hawaii at Manoa.
John Hart, a communication professor at Hawaii Pacific University, does not read as much as Milner and other analysts in the margin of the defeats, but agrees all three would have difficulty if they chose to run again.
"Linda lost in the general because of (President Barack) Obama’s coattails," said Hart. "I think Mufi’s high negatives caught up with him when the PACs decided to throw money behind a more likable candidate. And I think Ed simply ran out of money."
Analysts who have admired Lingle’s political acumen and her success — a two-term Republican governor in a traditionally Democratic state — attribute much of her crushing loss to Hirono to Obama’s landslide re-election in Hawaii, the threat of a Republican Senate to the power of U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye and the collapse of the Republican brand in the islands.
"Republicans are deceiving themselves if they think it’s the weakness of Lingle," Milner said. "It’s the weakness of the Republican Party."
But political strategists, speaking privately, say that despite millions of dollars in advertising by the Lingle campaign and interest groups to label her as bipartisan, Lingle never credibly showed how she would be bipartisan in the Senate. Hirono, an authentic liberal, effectively tagged Lingle as another Republican masquerading as bipartisan to get elected. "Where was the proof that she would stand up to her own party and say, ‘I differ with you’?" one strategist asked. "Abortion, to some degree, but nowhere else, really."
The strategist contends it is doubtful that Lingle could attract significant national Republican help for another Senate campaign because of the perception in Washington that she is "damaged goods," but she could shift to the urban 1st District if there is a vacancy.
The election results suggest a pattern that is also occurring in other states where one party dominates. Blue states are getting bluer and red states are getting redder, which does not bode well for a Lingle rebound.
"I think the only office she really wants is the Senate," Hart said, "and that might be the one she can’t have."
A politically bluer Hawaii could also be harsh on any comeback attempt by Case or Hannemann, centrists who have trouble in Democratic primaries. "The people who vote in Democratic primaries don’t find either of those candidates very attractive," Milner said.
Case has now lost three elections in a row — a Senate primary to Akaka in 2006, a special election for Congress to Djou in 2010 and the Senate primary to Hirono this year — and would be out of office for eight years by the time of the 2014 election cycle.
"I think a lot of people like him as a candidate, and he has a lot of good ideas, but when he went up against the establishment, they basically decided to financially bleed him to death, and they were successful," Hart said.
The strategist said privately that the progressive and labor wings of the party would likely never clear a path for Case over more liberal Democrats, even if a hypothetical matchup against Lingle for a Senate or 1st District vacancy was at stake, especially now that Lingle is weakened.
The strategist suggested that Case may want to follow the example of Gov. Neil Abercrombie and the late U.S. Rep. Patsy Mink, who rebuilt their political careers after losses for House and Senate in part by winning seats on the nonpartisan City Council.
"He’s still loved by certain members of the media, but that’s about it," the strategist said. "He’s not able to raise money, and he’s not able to win partisan races."
The outlook could be even bleaker for Hannemann, who, before stumbling against Gabbard, suffered a 21-point loss to Abercrombie in the Democratic primary for governor in 2010. Forty percent of voters had never heard of Gabbard last February, she had few accomplishments as a state legislator and councilwoman, and she had only recently moved off the strident opposition to same-sex marriage that her family is known for in the islands. But the young Iraq War veteran was embraced by progressives and environmentalists as the preferred liberal alternative to Hannemann.
"I think he’s finished in partisan races," the strategist said.
Lingle, Case and Hannemann did not return telephone calls seeking comment about their political futures. Djou, a Republican who lost to Hanabusa by single digits, said he has no immediate plans to get back into politics.
"Politics, I realize, is a very fluid situation. Things could always change," he said. "But I am very happy being a dad, very happy being a private citizen and very happy to spend a lot more time with my wife now."
