Early poll puts Hanabusa in lead over Abercrombie

Along with the admonition to not step on Superman’s cape, there is a general warning to curb your impulse to run against an incumbent Democratic governor in Hawaii.

The ghosts of Tom Gill and Frank Fasi will tell you that a Hawaii Democratic primary is a treacherous land, filled with traps.

During the primary season both were leading the polls against incumbents John Burns and George Ariyoshi, but it is Burns and Ariyoshi — not Gill and Fasi — with the title of "Governor" before their names.

So far in Hawaii’s 54-year history as a state, no Democratic governor has been turned out of office.

That cautionary history does not dampen the interest in a campaign next year against incumbent Democrat Gov. Neil Abercrombie.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa is mulling over three courses next year: run against Abercrombie for governor, run against appointed U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz or run for re-election to her urban Honolulu congressional district.

Hanabusa’s decision and Abercrombie’s fate have aroused the interest of local political junkies and prompted mainland political powers to ask the question: What’s going on out there in Hawaii?

To partially answer that question, last week the national AFL-CIO paid for a fast computer-dialed poll of nearly 700 across the state.

The results, according to local labor sources, are intriguing and encouraging to Hanabusa.

The poll found that if the race between Hanabusa and Abercrombie were held today, Hanabusa, a former state Senate president, would get 42 percent of the vote and Abercrombie, a 20-year congressional veteran, would pick up just 35 percent.

Along with the horse-race numbers, Hanabusa scores high in voter favorability. She is viewed favorably by 59 percent compared to Abercrombie’s 34 percent favorable rating.

Perhaps more important in a campaign, Abercrombie is still struggling with an unfavorable rating given by 48 percent of those surveyed. Hanabusa, in comparison, is at 24 percent.

Local union leaders looked at the poll and nodded in agreement, but added that it doesn’t show that Abercrombie is toast or that Hanabusa can start practicing her inauguration speech.

The only thing this preliminary poll does is keep Hanabusa interested in the race.

Hanabusa’s first problem would be money; her second problem is time.

Just like Abercrombie found while running for governor in 2010, campaign money raised for a federal campaign cannot be transferred, so she would have to return it to her donors and ask that they rewrite the checks for a state campaign.

Just as difficult would be a statewide campaign in Hawaii: up and down the island chain in tiny school cafeterias and union halls while still representing Hawaii in Congress.

Abercrombie at first said he could do both, but he blinked and retired from the U.S. House to run back home.

Dante Carpenter, state Democratic Party chairman, speculated that while Abercrombie right now is sagging in the polls, "he has a chance to redeem himself in the eyes of Democrats."

Abercrombie had turned over his spacious Ward Warehouse campaign space to the Democratic Party after winning election, but now is asking for it back, so the Democrats will have to find another location — showing both that Abercrombie is gearing up for a re-election campaign and more important, the close embrace between Abercrombie and the party regulars.

With the passing of senior U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye, Abercrombie becomes the undisputed "titular head" of the Democratic Party.

"That could impress some and depress others," Carpenter said.

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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.