Lots of District 1 hopefuls fight for a handful of votes

When everyone from Uncle Charlie to the mailman runs in an election, what happens?

The answer is important for the six announced candidates in the Democratic primary for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District.

Because U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa is leaving to run against U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz, the seat is open. The 1st Congressional District was occupied by Neil Abercrombie for two decades before he left to run and win Hawaii’s governorship.

Of the six candidates, five are holding office now. The newcomer is progressive activist Kathryn Xian.

Senate President Donna Mercado Kim has the most experience, having held elected office for 32 years.

State Rep. K. Mark Takai is second in longevity with 20 years.

The district hasn’t had such a crowd since the special election in 2010, when Democrats, Republicans and nonpartisans ran in a special election that attracted 14 candidates.

That packed field resulted in the top three candidates getting 97.8 percent of the vote and Republican Charles Djou winning the race. Djou went on to lose it to Hanabusa in the regular election.

Retired political consultant David Wilson says the race "is going to be a lot like the old elected school board races — there are so many people running you have a hard time with all of them."

That blur of faces will be a problem.

Compounding it is Hawaii’s usual low voter turnout — and primaries always have fewer voters than in the fall general election.

On Oahu, home to the 1st Congressional District, we have not seen primary voter turnout more than 50 percent since 1996.

The numbers for the last three regular primaries show that on average, just around 113,000 voters take a Democrat ballot.

If you consider that in a crowded race, the votes will go to the top three candidates, like what happened in 2010, then the winning total could be tiny.

Conceivably the primary election winner would need only 38,000 votes to win.

Long-time labor leader and an experienced political hand, J.N. Musto, executive director of the University of Hawaii Professional Assembly, says the winning total could be as low as 22,000 votes.

"There are just a lot of wrinkles in that sort of an election," says Wilson.

So far Kim and Takai have the best name recognition. The others in the race include state Sen. Will Espero, and Honolulu City Councilmen Ikaika Anderson and Stanley Chang.

Kim has recognition because of her many investigations into government waste and corruption, which have kept her name in the headlines. Takai has not had as prominent a legislative showing, but he has close ties both to the military and the University of Hawaii. Takai was recently endorsed by Vote Vets, the political organization that helped Hawaii’s Tulsi Gabbard win her first congressional race in 2012.

Kim voted against allowing same-sex marriage during the recent special legislative session. That will help her in some conservative quarters, but the argument can be made that a Democratic primary is more likely to draw the attention of liberal and progressive Democrats, rather than conservative Christian voters.

Still not heard from is former two-term Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann. It is still possible for him to jump into the primary.

Since Hannemann has lost his last two Democratic primaries since leaving City Hall, the argument can also be made that perhaps Hannemann needs to think like his political hero, former Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi, and either jump to the GOP or start his own independent party to skip the entire primary season and battle the winner in the general election in November.

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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.