For Gov. Neil Abercrombie, his looming defeat in the Aug. 9 Democratic primary would be historic; for state Sen. David Ige, his selection as the Democrats’ candidate for the November general election would be nothing short of miraculous.
Today’s Honolulu Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now poll shows Abercrombie losing to Ige by 18 percentage points, with a margin or error of 4.6 percentage points. It was conducted by Ward Research.
Most telling is Abercrombie’s job performance rating: 56 percent of the voters surveyed disapprove of the 76-year-old Manoa Democrat.
For someone who has served in political office for 40 years, including 20 in Congress, it portends an astounding fall.
If the poll numbers are correct, Abercrombie will be the first governor in Hawaii history to be voted out of office in a primary election. That sort of a loss is especially telling because the primary voters are just the Democrats who originally put Abercrombie into office.
A veteran legislator who has watched Abercrombie for years says the governor created his own political problems.
"He has a bipolar relationship with the voters," said the lawmaker, who asked not to be identified.
"One minute he can empathize with you and knows your concerns, and the next minute he can’t remember your name," the Democrat said.
A politician’s relationship with the constituents is a delicate business.
Four years ago, Abercrombie handily beat former Mayor Mufi Hannemann with a highly efficient and disciplined campaign that appealed to liberals, environmentalists, older voters and teachers.
After winning office, Abercrombie almost systematically sought to destroy his relationship with each voting group.
If the key voters in a Democratic primary are those looking to control development and encourage planned growth, those who want new energy regulation, educators looking for more support and pay, and seniors looking to balance their own budget, Abercrombie inflamed them all.
My Senate source, who was originally an Abercrombie ally, compared the governor’s problems to a failed marriage.
"It is like Neil and the voters buy a house together and then the pressures start and the voters are saying they don’t even recognize him anymore.
"There is no aloha left in this marriage."
Rebecca Ward, president of Ward Research, said she doubts there is anything Abercrombie can do in the next week to cause him to win.
"Some of the decisions made early in his governorship caused his slip in job performance ratings," Ward said.
"I don’t see how an early or a better campaign could turn around this freight train."
Meanwhile, the late-starting, underfunded and sometimes naive campaign of Ige has taken off and put the 57-year-old Pearl City Democrat in place to fight it out with Hannemann, who is running as an independent, and Republicans James "Duke" Aiona in the general election.
Abercrombie has raised $5 million and spent $4.7 million. In contrast, Ige has raised and spent about $500,000.
The power of incumbency, the staggering money already raised and spent by Abercrombie, and his own skills as a public speaker all fail in the face of voters who have already made up their minds.
Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.
