Ethnic support in elections not quite what it used to be

Local comedian Andy Bumatai is interviewing state Sen. David Ige while they drive along Ige’s old Pearl City neighborhood.

It is an entertaining television spot, with Ige continuing both his campaign for governor and the trampling of political sound bites. Bumatai turns philosopher to ask:

"David, do you feel more local or do you feel more Japanese?"

Ige, a member of Pearl City High School’s first graduating class, says "I feel definitely more local. It is all chop suey. … Ethnicity in Hawaii doesn’t matter.

"I talk about people in Hawaii being kind of blind to ethnicity. We are from Hawaii."

Over in the race for the U.S. Senate, a different dynamic is at work as U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz and U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa battle for the Democratic nomination.

The new Honolulu Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now poll shows Hanabusa leading Schatz by 8 percentage points.

This is one of those races with the candidates stressing "experience, values and commitment" instead of sharply defined political differences. This is not the tea party against the socialists — Hanabusa and Schatz are two liberals running in a liberal state, thinking good thoughts about Social Security and wishing electric cars and progressive schools for all.

But, the poll turns up some interesting splits.

First Hanabusa is beating Schatz 53 percent to 35 percent on the neighbor islands. On Oahu she is ahead just 49 percent to 45 percent.

They both campaigned on the neighbor islands when they ran against each other for Congress, so neighbor island voters know them both, but the split is dramatic.

Even more dramatic is the difference in ethnic support.

Hanabusa enjoys the support of 54 percent of Japanese-American voters, and Schatz is boosted by 57 percent of the Caucasian voters. Hanabusa also has strong support among Filipino-American voters, 61 percent, and Hawaiian voters, 67 percent.

So, is the race shaking out along ethnic lines or is it something else?

First the AJA vote may not be what it used to be.

"I think the Japanese-American community is much harder to organize politically than 30 years ago when there were still substantial numbers of nisei voters who were strong Democratic Party supporters and who could be appealed to collectively through the veterans’ clubs and unions," says Jonathan Okamura, a University of Hawaii professor of ethnic studies.

What may be happening in the election is not a separation by ethnicity, but by residency.

The poll shows that 57 percent of those born in Hawaii would vote for Hanabusa and 52 percent of those born elsewhere would vote for Schatz.

"Claiming a local identity is more important to Schatz … than to Hanabusa because people might perceive him as someone unfamiliar with local people and culture," said Okamura.

For Hanabusa, this sort of a campaign gambit, however, is dangerous ground. Former Mayor Mufi Hannemann found out four years ago that extolling your local roots does not resonate with any voting group.

And a long time ago, City Councilman Arnold Morgado had the same sort of campaign based on "Local Roots, Local Values" backfire during his campaign for mayor.

At the same time, the Schatz-Hanabusa race is being fought on several levels that are already being reflected in the polling data and will play an important part of the Saturday night decision.

Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.