Young voters not swayed by Bill Clinton’s history
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Former President Bill Clinton pauses for a selfie with a supporter at a coffee shop while campaigning for his wife, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in Los Angeles.
ATHENS, Ohio >> Ignoring his own sexually aggressive predilections, Donald Trump wants voters to see Bill Clinton as a scandal-plagued cad whose history with women should disqualify Hillary Clinton from the presidency.
The argument doesn’t seem to resonate with America’s youngest voters, who know the 70-year-old former president as a figure out of history books and don’t seem to care about his Oval Office affair with Monica Lewinsky or other marital infidelities. Many of them describe the white-topped, bespectacled grandfather more as Hillary’s famous husband than a central figure to consider as they weigh their 2016 ballot.
“I’m here for Hillary, not for Bill,” said 19-year-old Rachel Onusko, an Ohio University sophomore who attended the former president’s recent campaign appearance at the Athens campus. “It’s great that he’s supporting his wife,” Onusko continued, “but the main factor is not, ‘Oh, her husband was the president.’ For me, the message is, ‘Hillary is a strong woman and this is what she stands for.’”
To be sure, millennials have yet to embrace Hillary Clinton fully, even as they reject Trump. A national GenForward survey in September found 54 percent of adults age 18-30 had a negative view of Clinton, with 75 percent feeling the same about Trump. And Bill Clinton isn’t necessarily the best Hillary Clinton supporter to convert skeptics: President Barack Obama and his wife, Michelle, the only White House couple the youngest voters have followed closely, are the ones who draw massive, shrieking crowds of young people.
Hillary Clinton’s campaign implicitly concedes the point, with Bill Clinton’s recent and coming schedules in Ohio, Florida, Iowa and other battlegrounds tilted to union groups and African-American audiences. Still, an August Gallup poll found the former president with a 56 percent approval rating among adults ages 18-29.
Perhaps most encouraging for Bill Clinton in the millennial pursuit — and ominous for Trump — is that Onusko and many of her contemporaries express bewilderment and even disdain over the Republican nominee’s broadsides about the ex-president’s sexual history and Hillary Clinton’s actions in the political fallout.
“Bill Clinton was abusive to women,” Trump said in the second presidential debate, as three of the women who allege unwanted sexual encounters with Clinton sat in the audience at Trump’s invitation. “Hillary Clinton attacked those same women, and attacked them viciously.” He’d raised that subject intermittently before.
Hillary Clinton did not directly address Trump’s accusations that she had taken part in aggressive efforts by Clinton associates to discredit women who had gone public with allegations about her husband.
Even before the disclosure of an explosive 2005 tape in which Trump boasted in vulgar terms about imposing himself on women at will, young people hardly regarded the billionaire as a man who respects women.
“The only people I know who support Trump are men, mostly older men,” said Selena Peterson, 19, of Canton, Ohio, who voted for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary but has no qualms about voting for Clinton over Trump.
Dominic Detwiler, 18, from Lancaster, Ohio, was a Sanders supporter who is deciding between Clinton and the Green Party’s Jill Stein — but not because he’s contemplating Bill Clinton’s treatment of women. “I’m over the whole Monica Lewinsky thing,” he said of the White House intern at the center of the 42nd president’s 1998 impeachment. “I mean, would I have divorced him if he’d done that to me? Sure. But that wasn’t my decision; it was Hillary’s.”
It’s certainly not that young voters aren’t familiar with Bill Clinton’s transgressions, confirmed or alleged. “Impeachment was one of the first things we learned about him in school,” said Peterson, “and, of course, people in history class would make the Monica jokes.”
Will Maher, 25, of Fort Collins, Colorado, was 7 years old in 1998. “I remember my parents turning off the television during the news and saying, ‘We’re not going to discuss that,’” he said. Maher, who hasn’t decided how to vote, says: “If he was running again, maybe that would matter.” As for Hillary Clinton, “I judge her as her own candidate, in the present.”
Madison Sloat, a 19-year-old from Pittsburgh who has backed Hillary Clinton from the beginning, agreed. “It shouldn’t be an issue that impacts her at all. It makes me mad that he wants American citizens to blame Hillary for all of that.”
That attitude suits the former president fine. “He’s been making those attacks since the beginning of this campaign, so I don’t think there’s anything new,” Bill Clinton told reporters in Ohio. Days later, he sat silently in his wife’s VIP box, feet from the debate stage where Trump bellowed, “There’s never been anyone in the history of politics … so abusive to women.”
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Follow Barrow on Twitter at https://twitter.com/BillBarrowAP .
45 responses to “Young voters not swayed by Bill Clinton’s history”
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Dumb kids….just want a free ride….
Maybe they just aren’t white supremacists, racists, bigots or xenophobes? Those folks are Trump’s base.
Maybe they are. Who knows
Since you asked…they are.
Dumb tea baggers…Just want to be able to hang a black.
Guess what your hiLIARy think of you…
“She wants to achieve consistency and the best way to do that is to keep the people ignorant”
https://wikileaks.org/dnc-emails/emailid/4788
You’re using wikileaks to back up your claims? Well then guess what we think of you…
Adobo_bobo…in denial. We have names for people like you..sheep.
Yep. Young = ignorant. No surprise here.
These young voters just do not get it. The issue is not really Bill Clinton’s sexual history, which is pretty sordid. It is Hillary Clinton’s defense of her husband and the brutal attacks she launched against the woman who accused Bill Clinton of rape and sexual assault. Yes, Hillary, who claims to be the protector of women.
They don’t get it, but you do?
Exactly!
Do you remember?
How quickly we forget! If you’re over 35, take a walk with me down memory lane—you won’t believe what you have forgotten. If you’re under 35, read on—I promise you that you will be amazed at what you missed! (By the way, sadly, this isn’t a joke. I wish it was.)
REMEMBER WHEN BILL CLINTON WAS PRESIDENT?
(January 20, 1993 to January 20, 2001—two terms)
When Bill Clinton was president, he allowed Hillary to assume authority over an attempt to reform health care.
Her proposed plan was so bad that many Democrats came up with competing plans of their own in protest, and in spite of threats and intimidation, on September 26, 1994, the “Hillarycare” bill was declared dead.
This fiasco cost the American taxpayers about $13 million for studies, promotion, and other efforts.
Then, President Clinton gave Hillary authority over selecting a female attorney general. Her first two selections were Zoe Baird and Kimba Wood—both were forced to withdraw their names from consideration.
Next, she chose Janet Reno, which husband Bill described as “my worst mistake.”
(Some may not remember that Reno made the decision to gas David Koresh and the Branch Davidian religious sect in Waco, Texas resulting in dozens of deaths of women and children.)
Husband Bill also allowed Hillary to make recommendations for the head of the Civil Rights Commission—Lani Guanier was her selection.
After considerable backlash from prominent Democratic senators concerning Ms. Guanier’s radical views, Bill Clinton withdrew her name from nomination, stating that she did not represents the civil rights views that he had championed during his campaign.
However, apparently a slow learner, husband Bill continued to allow Hillary to make more recommendations.
She chose former law partners, Web Hubbel for the Justice Department, Vince Foster for the White House staff, and William Kennedy for the Treasury Department.
Her selections went well: Hubbel went to prison, Foster (presumably) committed suicide, and Kennedy was forced to resign.
(Is anyone wondering yet what her Supreme Court Justice appointments would be like?)
Many younger voters will have no knowledge of “Travelgate,” the first major ethics controversy during Bill’s presidency.
Hillary wanted to award unfettered travel contracts to Clinton friend, Harry Thompson—but the White House Travel Office refused to comply.
She trumped up allegations of financial mismanagement and reported seven long-time White House employees to the FBI. This ruined their reputations, got them fired, and caused a thirty-six month investigation.
Eventually, most of the employees were reinstated and Clinton associates were forced out of the travel office. Only one White House employee, Billy Dale, was charged with a crime—the enormous crime of mixing personal and White House funds; a jury acquitted him in less than two hours.
Still not convinced of her ineptness, Hillary was allowed to recommend a close Clinton friend, Craig Livingstone, for the position of Director of White House Security.
When Livingstone was investigated for the improper access of about 900 FBI files of Clinton enemies (Filegate) and the widespread use of drugs by White House staff, suddenly Hillary and the President denied even knowing Livingstone, and of course, denied knowledge of drug use in the White House.
Following this debacle, the FBI closed its White House Liaison Office after more than thirty years of service to seven presidents.
Next, when women started coming forward with allegations of sexual harassment and rape by Bill Clinton, Hillary was put in charge of the “bimbo eruption” and scandal defense.
Let’s look at some of her more notable decisions in this regard . . .
She urged her husband not to settle the Paula Jones lawsuit. After the Starr investigation, they settled with Ms. Jones.
She refused to release the Whitewater documents, which led to the appointment of Ken Starr as Special Prosecutor.
After $80 million dollars of taxpayer money was spent, Starr’s investigation led to Monica Lewinsky, which led to Bill lying about and later admitting his affairs.
Hillary’s devious game plan resulted in Bill losing his license to practice law for ‘lying under oath’ to a grand jury, followed by his subsequent impeachment by the House of Representatives.
Hillary avoided indictment for perjury and obstruction of justice during the Starr investigation by repeating, “I do not recall,” “I have no recollection,” and “I don’t know” a total of 56 times while under oath. (Sound familiar?)
After leaving the White House, Hillary was forced to return an estimated $200,000 in White House furniture, china, and artwork that she had “mistakenly thought was hers.”
So you see, the email scandal and all of her malfeasance regarding the handling of Top Secret information, not to mention the “pay to play” schemes of the Clinton Foundation, are nothing new.
Hillary’s entire political career has been nothing but a web of lies, corruption and destruction in her quest for power.
Is anyone else ready to say, “Enough is enough!”?
But unfortunately, I’m sure her loyal fans will say, “What difference does it make?”
Hmmmmn. Deal with this:
Economic Leadership and a Stronger Economy
Under President Clinton’s leadership, almost 6 million new jobs were created in the first two years of his Administration — an average of 250,000 new jobs every month.
In 1994, the economy had the lowest combination of unemployment and inflation in 25 years.
As part of the 1993 Economic Plan, President Clinton cut taxes on 15 million low-income families and made tax cuts available to 90 percent of small businesses, while raising taxes on just 1.2 percent of the wealthiest taxpayers.
President Clinton signed into law the largest deficit reduction plan in history, resulting in over $600 billion in deficit reduction. The deficit is going down for 3 years in a row for the first time since Harry Truman was president.
Fighting Crime and Restoring Our Communities
The President signed into law the Brady Bill, which imposes a five-day waiting period on handgun purchases so that background checks can be done to help keep handguns away from criminals.
The President’s Crime Bill will put 100,000 new police officers on the street. More than 1,200 communities have already received grants to hire 27,000 additional officers.
The Crime Bill also punishes criminals by expanding the number of offenses eligible for the death penalty and implementing the “three-strikes-and-you’re-out” provision.
And, the Bill banned the manufacture of 19 specific types of deadly assault weapons, while simultaneously protecting hunters’ rights by exempting over 650 hunting rifles.
Strengthening Our Families: Security and Opportunity
President Clinton signed the Family and Medical Leave Act. The law, which covers over 42 million Americans, offers workers up to 12 weeks of unpaid, job-guaranteed leave for child birth, adoption, or personal or family illness.
President Clinton expanded the Earned Income Tax Credit to cut the taxes of 15 million working families with incomes of $27,000 or less.
President Clinton granted waivers to 25 states — half the nation — providing for comprehensive welfare reform demonstrations.
President Clinton ordered the U.S. Justice Department to conduct the first-ever crackdown on deadbeat parents who refuse to accept financial responsibility for their own children.
Signed an Executive Order cracking down on federal employees who owe child support.
Cutting Bureaucracy
President Clinton has already cut the federal bureaucracy by more than 100,000 positions. Under the recommendations of the National Performance Review, the federal bureaucracy will be reduced by 272,000 — its lowest level since the Kennedy Administration.
And, he reduced the White House staff by 25 percent.
Making Education A Priority
Under the President’s Direct Student Loan program, students can borrow money directly from the government at a lower interest rate and with many flexible repayment options, including the option to repay with a percentage of their after-graduation salary. Taxpayers will save at least $4.3 billion over five years.
In 1994, over 20,000 AmeriCorps members tutored students, immunized children, reclaimed urban parks, and patrolled neighborhoods. In return, they earned $4,725 per year of service towards college tuition or job training.
President Clinton signed into law Goals 2000, a national standard of excellence for our public schools. Already, 41 states and territories have received federal grants to raise academic standards and improve schools.
President Clinton’s Safe and Drug Free Schools and Community Act and the Safe Schools Act provide funding to schools to fight violence and drug abuse. Schools can use up to 25 percent of their funds to purchase metal detectors, develop safe zones, and hire school security personnel.
The President’s School-to-Work program provides venture capital to spark a nationwide system for moving America’s young people from high school to a job with a future. In 1994, all states received planning funds for their school-to-work program.
Charter School legislation signed by President Clinton encourages states and localities to set up public school choice.
Expanding Markets for American Products
The Clinton Administration forged a bipartisan coalition to pass NAFTA, after concluding tough negotiations on side agreements covering workers’ rights, the environment, and import surges. Exports to Mexico rose 23 percent in the first 11 months of 1994.
President Clinton led the fight to pass GATT, which lowers tariffs worldwide by $744 billion over ten years — the largest international tax cut in history. GATT cuts tariffs on manufactured goods by more than one-third overall and eliminates tariffs in major markets in a number of sectors in which the U.S. is particularly competitive.
Protecting Our Environment
Under President Clinton, the EPA launched its “Common Sense Initiative” to make health protection cheaper and smarter by focusing on results rather than one-size-fits-all regulations.
The President’s Northwest Forest Plan is putting communities in the Northwest back to work, while conserving ancient forests.
After decades of conflict, the Clinton Administration negotiated a consensus plan to protect California’s most valuable natural resource — its water. The San Francisco and Delta estuary supplies dr inking water to two-thirds of the state’s people, provides irrigation for 45 percent of the nation’s fruits and vegetables, and sustains 300 aquatic species.
Promoting Security and Freedom Abroad
President Clinton hosted the signing of the Israeli-Palestinian Declaration of Principles in September, 1993, and the signing of the Israeli-Jordan Washington Principles in July, 1994 — historic agreements between the leaders of Israel and her Arab neighbors to settle differences by peaceful means.
To enhance European security and stability, the Clinton Administration proposed the Partnership for Peace program, offering former Soviet republics and Central/East European states closer ties with NATO. Already, 22 nations have signed on, since NATO’s adoption of the program in January, 1994.
As of May, 1994, nuclear missiles in Russia and the United States are no longer targeted against any country. And, as a result of other Clinton Administration efforts, the Ukraine is ahead of schedule in reaching the goal of transferring 1,500 nuclear warheads to Russia for dismantlement.
President Clinton peacefully restored democracy to Haiti, curbing the violence that threatened tens of thousands of Haitians, securing our borders, and upholding our commitments and the commitments made to us in the process.
CREATING ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY AND SECURITY FOR ALL AMERICANS
Signed the Economic Package, August 10, 1993.
The economy created 7.7 million new jobs in the first 34 months of this Administration.
Passed the largest deficit-cutting plan in history — saving more than $1 trillion over seven years.
On track for three consecutive years of deficit reduction — for the first time since Harry Truman.
Cut federal spending by $255 billion over 5 years.
Made new tax cuts available to over 90% of small businesses.
Unemployment has fallen from 7% when President Clinton took office to its current rate of 5.6%
Lowest combined rate of unemployment and inflation since 1968.
1994 real GDP growth was the highest in a decade.
Proposed a plan to balance the budget while protecting critical investments in education.
PROMOTING A FUTURE OF OPPORTUNITY
Increased Head Start funding by almost $760 million.
Passed the Student Loan Reform Act, August 10, 1993.
Implemented the National Service Act, September 21, 1993.
Signed the Goals 2000: Educate America Act, March 31, 1994.
Enacted the School-to-Work Opportunities Act on May 4, 1994.
Signed the Elementary and Secondary Education Act Reauthorization
MAKING COMMUNITIES AND SCHOOLS SAFE FOR OUR FAMILIES
Passed the toughest most comprehensive Crime Bill ever, September 13, 1994
Signed the Brady Bill, November 30, 1993.
Enacted the Assault Weapons Ban as part of the Crime Bill.
Put 100,000 new police on the street — nearly 31,000 more officers have been funded.
Signed the Violence Against Women Act as part of the Crime Bill.
Signed the Safe and Drug-Free Schools Act, October 20, 1994.
Issued Presidential Directive enforcing a “Zero Tolerance” gun policy in schools, October 22, 1994
Submitted and fought for the most comprehensive Drug Control budget ever.
MAKING GOVERNMENT WORK BETTER AND COST LESS
Already cut the Federal Workforce by over 200,000 — on the way to lowest level in 30 years.
Abolishing 16,000 pages of obsolete regulations and rewriting 31,000 more pages.
$58 billion in savings are already in the bank. $46 billion in savings are still to come.
Over 180 new recommendations will save $70 billion. Eliminated 284 federal advisory committees.
Developed government-wide Customer Service Standards for the first time.
Appointed the most diverse Cabinet and Administration in history.
Signed the most important federal procurement act ever to streamline government purchasing.
Reformed Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation to protect 8.5 million pensions.
Signed the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act, March 22, 1995.
CREATING OPPORTUNITY IN AMERICA’S COMMUNITIES
Created nine Economic Empowerment Zones and 95 Enterprise Communities.
Signed the Community Development Banking Financial Institutions Act, Sept. 23, 1994.
Signed the Interstate Banking Bill, September 29, 1994.
Instituted the Defense Reinvestment and Conversion Initiative.
Reformed the Community Reinvestment Act to focus on performance rather than paperwork.
Made the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit and Mortgage Revenue Bond Program permanent.
PROTECTING THE ENVIRONMENT AND OUR PUBLIC HEALTH
Ike, a simpler answer to Sarge is:
1) Hillary’s health plan was single-payer. A very good idea, but the Repiblicans killed it because they wanted to keep their insurance company friends in business.
2) Waco? Are you serious?! Those folks defied the Feseral government and barricaded themselves in their compound. The government was very patient for over a month. Rather than assault them with weapons, the government decided to smoke them out with tear gas. It is unfortunate that the building caught fire, but the year has was an attempt to avoid bloodshed. The Branch Dividiana brought it upon themselves. How can you support anything about them?
Hmmmmn. Deal with this:The Arkancide website consists of a history of the Clintons and their misdeeds in Arkansas and the White House, a list of books about the Clintons, a section on Hillary Clinton, which is rapidly growing and becoming increasingly relevant to all of us, and a section on the press and their view of Hillary as “she who can do no wrong.”…http://arkancide.com/
Slick Willy isn’t running for President according to the latest polls.
The sad irony for you Sarge, is according to the polls, neither is Trump.
Buahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
klastri never gets it as Ronin has aptly pointed out the discrepancy and hypocrisy of Hillary’s public position of supporting victims of sexual assault versus her actual actions in blaming Bill’s victims and defending a client of hers whom she knew was guilty of raping a 12 year old girl.
bullfighter you’re the one that doesn’t get it. A lawyer has to provide a legal defense for all. You need to go back to school and learn a bit of how our judicial system works.
airsumo – yes a defense attorney has an obligation to provide legal defense for his/her client. However, it is another thing for Hillary to laugh about her client passing a lie detector test knowing he was guilty and she plea bargained for him. That is the way the judicial system works but one does not laugh about it especially when it pertains to the sexual assault of a 12 y.o. – particularly for Hillary who sees herself as a protector of women’s rights.
Yes, Klastri, I get it, but you don’t. Exactly.
Sorry sarge, what I remember about the Clinton administration is that we had Balanced budgets, something you republicans haven’t given the nation since Eisenhower. We also had economic growth for 8 tears which you republicans said would not happen due to the largest tax increase in the history of the nation. But as usual you republicans turned out to be wrong and the nation enjoyed economic growth until an idiot republican stole the 2000 election and brought back Voodoo. Then we had an economic collapse, 9/11, tax cuts during a time of war and a deficit of over a trillion dollars. Thanks a lot.
Sorry, Boots, but Clinton did not balance the budget. He was President when it happened but that was the extent of his involvement. The budget was balanced by the Republican-controlled House led by Newt Gingrich. http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/no-bill-clinton-didnt-balance-budget
Trump is going to lose, he’s going to lose SO Yuuuggee !!! When he does, will the mysogonists and bigots go back into their holes they crawled out of ???
Oh yeah and don’t forget SO “bigly” or “big league”.
That is what I love about phony conservatives. The poor do not need a defense and if they should get one, their attorney should just go through the motions and let em hang. Right Ron?
Go ahead ..keep supporting Clinton, the most corrupt candidate for president in US history… Trumps no angel, but at least he’s an outsider..
I plan on voting for sweet Hillary. I am voting for Hillary as I want the president to be someone who is qualified. The Donald is not qualified to be dog catcher.
If you needed open heart surgery, would you look for a surgeon who has been doing it for years, or would you try to get an “outsider”?
If the surgeon who’s been doing it for years with no success, it might be worth a shot with an outsider.
In November, Donald Trump could become the first Republican presidential nominee to lose Orange County, California, since 1936. He could also be the first to lose Virginia Beach, Virginia, since 1964. But he could simultaneously become the first Republican to win an electoral vote from Maine since 1988 and only the second Republican to carry Iowa since 1984.
Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, perhaps by a lot. Republicans are still favored to hold the House. In other words, after all the madness, the balance of power in Washington post-2016 could look surprisingly similar to that after 2012. Yet beneath the surface, the tectonic plates of the American electorate are shifting.
By now, it’s clear where the fault lines lie: The 2016 election is poised to be among the most polarized elections ever, not only along gender and generational lines, but especially along lines of race and educational attainment.
In August, Nate Cohn of The New York Times put it well when he wrote: “The simple way to think about Mr. Trump’s strength is in terms of education among white voters. He hopes to do much better than Mitt Romney did in 2012 among white voters without a degree so that he can make up the margin of Mr. Romney’s four-point defeat and overcome the additional losses he’s likely to absorb among well-educated voters and Hispanic voters.”
There’s ample evidence that Trump is underperforming Romney among Asians and African-Americans, not just Latinos and college-educated whites. Clinton, on the other hand, has been underperforming President Obama among non-college-educated whites.
To get a handle on how these shifts could affect the electoral landscape, we modeled how many of Romney’s votes came from college-educated whites and minorities and how many of Obama’s votes came from non-college-educated whites in each state, county and congressional district. The difference between these two vote totals, shown in the map above, can tell us where Clinton and Trump have the most potential to build on 2012.538
Wassup SA?
To the liberals…welcome to the Club….
There is serious fallout from the newly leaked emails from Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman John Podesta.
Podesta was once President Bill Clinton’s Chief of Staff and then a counselor to President Barack Obama, and is now one of the most influential lobbyists in Washington, D.C.
Now, we see in an email from Podesta that Hillary Clinton hates “everyday Americans.” Podesta mentioned this in an email exchange with Jen Palmieri, Clinton’s campaign director of communications. They were debating how the phrase should be used in a New Hampshire speech in April 2015.
Read more: http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/wikileaks-reveals-two-words-hillary-clinton-hates-anything/#ixzz4MtQWrQ9q
Yawwwwnnn…now back to the tapes and grabbing some furniture or kissing some magnets or something like that.
Adobo_bobo, you are a fine example of a Clinton Ignorant.
Questions for all of the Trump supporters. Do you agree with the way Trump treats women? Would you want your daughter to marry a man like him?
Questions for all of the Hillary supporters. Do you agree with the way Hillary lies and acts as if she’s above the law? Do you really think she understands what an average American is while she’s wearing $12,000 outfits?
Well those are loaded questions. Here, allow me to rephrase your questions: “Do you agree with Hillary?” Yes. “Do you really think she understands what a average American is?” Yes.
Also, would it be okay with you if she wore $11,000 outfits? $5,000 outfits? $50 outfits? Since you seem to be an expert on judging people on the value of their outfits, what’s the minimum value for you to consider her to understand? PS…I wear $5 outfits (flea market t-shirt, shorts, and slippahs) and she understands me perfectly.
You asked…
Keolu, so your answer to my question is?
Another instance of the kids being smarter than their parents and grandparents….
Why Trump has lost it, by the numbers and only the numbers:
In most years, the early-October polls were pretty close to the mark, with a correlation of +0.96 between the polls and the final result. Ten of the 16 elections featured errors of 3 percentage points or less, and in all but three campaigns, the polls were within 5 percentage points of the final outcome. Even in 2012, when Mitt Romney closed his deficit against President Obama after the first debate, the polls at this point still showed Obama leading. At this point in the election cycle, the average error of polls for all elections is just 3.3 percentage points (much lower than the 4.7-point error we found for just after the conventions), and every candidate who’s been ahead in the popular vote in mid-October went on to win the election.
Simply put, there isn’t a precedent for a candidate coming back to win this late in the game after being behind by as much as Trump is now. That’s not to say Trump is dead in the water — polls are not perfectly predictive — but history doesn’t offer much hope for candidates in Trump’s position.
The nearest precedent available — if you squint and cover one eye — is probably 1992. The polling error that year, 8.5 percentage points, was larger than Trump’s current deficit in our polls-only forecast. In mid-October of 1992, Bill Clinton held a double-digit lead over George H.W. Bush. Clinton won, but only by about 6 points.
But the 1992 campaign isn’t a great model for the Trump campaign. First, Bush still lost. Second, 1992 featured a strong independent candidate in Ross Perot, which made polling the race more difficult. Gary Johnson’s support, in contrast, appears to be shrinking, which creates less volatility. And while Bush was hemorrhaging Republican support — as Trump is now — he still ended up losing more Republicans than Bill Clinton did Democrats on Election Day. That won’t work for Trump this year given that there are usually more self-identified Democrats than Republicans.
Trump’s supporters are better off pointing to two other races, 1980 and 1968, though neither of those are particularly encouraging either. In 1980, Ronald Reagan had a small lead over Jimmy Carter at this point in the campaign but ended up crushing Carter by nearly 10 percentage points. So that’s a decent precedent for Trump, right? Not really. The 1980 race shifted a great deal in the final weeks of the campaign, but even if 2016 underwent a similarly sized lurch towards Trump, he’d still lose. Not only that, but Reagan still had a major card to play in that election: the only debate between him and Carter. Reagan’s calm, collected performance there gave him a significant boost in the polls. This year, of course, two debates are already in the books, and Trump has lost both. Trump could obviously do better in the third debate, but it would likely have far less of an impact than the lone Carter-Reagan debate in 1980 did.
Pau, e hui hou!
Young women would have an affair with Bill. Why not? He’s not really married to what’s her name.
hiLIARy…who btw labeled all her liberal supporters as ignorant.
Keoni, the day you can get into Elihu Law, come back and we can speak. Until then, go fetch me something…..
Let me get this straight. Young voters are not in any way bothered by the fact that Bill assaulted multiple women and was aided and abetted by the democrat nominee for president. But they are horrified by Trump’s words on a hot mic. Please tell me you progressive geniuses of the SA comment boards why is it okay for Bill Clinton to get a pass but Trump to get savaged?