State economy set to cool off starting with close of 2017

Hawaii’s tourism industry and construction sector continue to keep the economy humming, but there are signs on the horizon that the state’s growth may be downshifting.

The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization said in a report released Sept. 30 that it expects visitor arrivals to rise 2.3 percent this year to a fifth consecutive record before slowing to a 1.5 percent increase in 2017, a 0.9 percent gain in 2018 and a 0.3 percent rise in 2019. Visitor arrivals were up 4.5 percent in 2015.

UHERO also forecast that the state’s gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic output — will rise 2 percent this year and an additional 2.4 percent in 2017 before growing just 1.5 percent in 2018 and 1.4 percent in 2019.

“The environment for tourism remains guarded, and the maturing of the construction cycle will remove what has been a major impetus for growth,” UHERO said. “Compared with recent experience, average rates of growth for jobs and income will trend lower over the next several years.”

U.S. visitors have been carrying the banner for the tourism industry over the past few years with a 6.9 percent increase in 2015 and a 2.9 percent gain projected for this year. That’s in stark contrast to visitors from Japan, the state’s top international market, which declined 1.9 percent in 2015 and are forecast to slip 0.4 percent this year.

“International visitors have been feeling the pinch from the strong dollar and global economic weakness,” UHERO said in the report, which was headlined by Executive Director Carl Bonham, senior research fellow Byron Gangnes and economist Peter Fuleky. “Although the yen has appreciated about 20 percent over the past 12 months, continuing softness in the Japanese economy has precluded a rebound in Japanese arrivals. For Canada, the effects of a weak currency are compounded by the economic drag from the oil price slump. As a result, visitor volume from our northern neighbor has declined 10 percent in the year to date.”

UHERO said that although total arrivals have continued to grow, inflation-adjusted visitor spending has remained essentially flat since 2012.

The researchers said construction jobs will hit 38,800 this year and peak at 39,500 in 2017 before beginning to decline as activity wanes. Construction employment rose 14 percent in the first half of this year compared with a year ago.

“The economy is now firing on all cylinders, but how long it can operate at this level depends on a range of factors,” UHERO said, citing slowing construction expansion, deteriorating home affordability, rising construction costs, higher interest rates and global economic conditions.