As Trump stumbles, Clinton watches her step

By Amy Chozick

New York Times

On Thursday, Hillary Clinton planned to take a break from fundraising in Los Angeles to appear on “The Ellen DeGeneres Show.” On Friday, she will fly to Seattle for a private fundraiser and on Monday, Billy Crystal, along with Matthew Broderick and Lin-Manuel Miranda, will host a Broadway-themed donor soiree on Clinton’s behalf.

With Donald Trump plunging in the polls amid new allegations of sexual assault and the continuing furor over the “Access Hollywood” recording, what Clinton won’t do is anything that could rattle a race that has shifted solidly in her favor.

She enters the final stretch of the presidential campaign with cautious optimism about the outcome. Unlike most presidential candidates, who spend the last weeks before Election Day holding a succession of big rallies, Clinton seems to see no reason to pack her public schedule. After Thursday, the Democratic nominee had no public appearances scheduled for the rest of the week, and her campaign has not announced additional events before next Wednesday’s third debate with Trump, in Las Vegas.

Aides point to rallies in Florida, Colorado and Arizona this week andsay Clinton has spent her downtime preparing for the debates. They have criticized Trump for shunning debate preparation, to his detriment. But her relatively light schedule also signals a newfound confidence inside the campaign as Clinton seeks to get out the vote among specific constituencies and avoid making any unforced errors.

After a shaky September, Clinton has surged to an 11-point lead over Trump in a four-way race, up from a 6-point advantage last month, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted over the weekend. Democrats expect that lead to widen in the aftermath of the second presidential debate, the tape that surfaced last week in which Trump can be heard making lewd comments about women, and the new accusations of sexual assault.

On Monday, Clinton drew her largest crowd yet, 18,500 people, to an outdoor evening rally at Ohio State University in Columbus. Nearly 2,700 voters came to a rally on Wednesday in Pueblo, Colorado. Campaign aides attribute the larger crowds to fury over what they call Trump’s scorched-earth tactics.

“We think people are turning out to show support for her taking on Trump,” said Jennifer Palmieri, a spokeswoman for the Clinton campaign. “We see we’re hitting goals in voting registration and enthusiasm on our side is growing.”

But in a fractured news media landscape, a boisterous campaign rally packs less punch than it used to and aides said they can more effectively target voters through other means. And the headlines about Trump of late underscore the Clinton campaign’s long-held assumption that dominating the national news is not always a good thing.

Rallies can also be fraught with risks.

A conservative radio host and Trump supporter, Alex Jones, has offered a cash prize to anyone who will interrupt Clinton events with chants accusing Bill Clinton of rape. Two protesters were escorted out of Hillary Clinton’s rally in Miami on Monday, where she and Al Gore talked about climate change at an event focused on young voters.

Clinton has a cadre of Democratic leaders to campaign on her behalf, including her husband; President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama; Vice President Joe Biden; and Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

“Rightly so, they know that if she is not out there making news, it is much more interesting to cover whatever Donald Trump said today,” said Russell J. Schriefer, a Republican political strategist and former senior adviser to Mitt Romney. “They know that ultimately plays to their benefit.”

Clinton has held 19 rallies in the 38 days since Labor Day, the official kickoff of the general election campaign, compared with Trump’s 32 rallies, according to a New York Times tally. But she has had a stream of high-dollar fundraisers, stops at community centers and small round-table discussions targeted at specific voters.

In Charlotte, N.C., this month, Clinton spoke at a black church and then had a round-table discussion with community leaders about the recent police shooting of Keith Lamont Scott and ensuing unrest in the city.

The talk changed the impression Shaun Corbett, 37 and owner of Da Lucky Spot Barbershop, had of Clinton.

“I can see how a lot of people would say she’s cold,” Corbett said. “But I saw that she’s just about her business.”

Direct outreach to voters like Corbett can be more valuable than rallies with already-devoted crowds.

“It’s got to be quality over quantity, return on investment,” said Tracy Sefl, a Democratic strategist who advises the campaign on women’s outreach.

Clinton’s campaign expects at least 40 percent of votes in battleground states to be cast early.

“We actually think that states like Nevada, North Carolina and Florida could be decided before Election Day,” said Robby Mook, the campaign manager.

Democrats says that despite Clinton’s solid performance in the first two debates, she will still attend her usual “debate camp” and grueling preparation sessions with aides in Westchester, New York, and Las Vegas.

After the final debate, Clinton is expected to make her closing argument with a more robust schedule of rallies, and may even make stops in long-shot states like Georgia and Arizona, where the margin has tightened.

“You take nothing for granted,” said Joel Benenson, Clinton’s chief strategist and pollster. “You campaign all the way to the end, and you regularly look at what’s ahead and you manage time and resources to get the most value out of the candidate’s time around the country.”