Tourism could push Hawaii’s GDP to 2%

The Hawaii economy is expected to finish the year slightly stronger than previously projected, with tourism and construction fueling the growth.

In its fourth-quarter forecast for 2016, the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism said Hawaii’s economy, as measured by the inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, will grow 2 percent this year rather than the 1.9 percent projected in August.

DBEDT is now forecasting that visitor arrivals will rise 2.3 percent to a record 8.9 million this year and that spending will increase 3.9 percent to a record $15.7 billion. Both numbers would represent a fifth consecutive year of records. DBEDT previously forecast increases of 1.9 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively.

“Tourism has been performing better than expected,” said Eugene Tian, chief economist for DBEDT. “Due to the appreciation of their currency, both Japanese and Canadian visitor daily spending have increased during the last few months. Year-to-date through September, visitor arrivals increased by 2.6 percent, and visitor spending increased by 3.7 percent. Visitor arrivals is likely to be another record year in 2016.”

The report was released Wednesday.

DBEDT sees Hawaii’s growth rate diminishing in each of the next few years and eventually falling to 1.6 percent in 2019 primarily due to the expected pickup in inflation. However, DBEDT revised upward its tourism numbers for 2017 to a 1.8 percent increase in arrivals and a 4 percent gain in spending compared with its previous forecast of 1.7 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively.

The state also forecast that nonfarm payroll jobs will rise 2 percent this year to 649,600. That’s revised upward from a 1.8 percent increase forecast in August. Construction jobs have led the way with a 16.5 percent increase during the first nine months of the year.

“We are encouraged to see the continued growth in our payroll jobs,” DBEDT Director Luis Salaveria said. “During the first three quarters of this year, 14,000 new jobs were added, and that’s the highest job gain since the Great Recession in 2008. Forty percent of the job gains came from the construction industry, which is on track to set a new record year in 2016.”

DBEDT forecast that inflation would increase 2.3 percent this year — the same as previously predicted — but rise 2.6 percent next year. That’s up from the 2.2 percent increase it previously forecast for 2017.