Financial fumbling makes difficult task of paying for rail even more onerous over time

Say what you get for Christmas is a new baby. Congratulations — but don’t think that you and the kiddo will be moving around a lot.

By the time your pride and joy is 9 in December 2025, you and the youngster will, in theory, be able to board TheTrain, according to the most recent estimates from the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation.

Yes, the latest estimate puts the completion of Hono­lulu’s rail system at nearly a decade away.

What is rapidly becoming more apparent is that 2025 will not mark the end of paying for the 20-mile train route.

Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell, who will be 73 at the new estimated completion date, is now saying Honolulu should think about buying rail like you buy a house, with a long-term mortgage.

That means the debt goes up.

Caldwell told KHON-TV: “As the financial plan for rail changes dramatically from a pay-as-you-go arrangement to long-term financing, one of the key cost items is interest on borrowed money. Bond payments for rail will continue long after the project is finished being built.”

Long-term financing makes sense but it won’t be cheap. Recent calculations done by HART are putting the cost of delaying financing at $1 billion. That means HART’s train is creeping up to the nightmare scenario of paying $10 billion for a system estimated by HART to take 40,000 cars out of the daily commute.

Caldwell, however, warned that “based on the most recent cost estimates and revenue projections, the GET surcharge (the 0.5 percent tacked onto Oahu’s general excise tax to pay for rail) would need to be further extended beyond the current 2027 sunset date.”

Caldwell was reacting to some of the details in last week’s latest HART progress report.

That is not all he and you should worry about.

Some of the details are almost comical. For instance, the state Tax Department fumbled calculating how much money it should send the state. The base rate was $9 million off. But by the time they caught the mistake, it had already been factored into the projections.

“Since the error was included in the base projection period, its effect is compounded over the term of the Financial Plan. HART now has reduced the original GET surcharge revenue by $100 million to offset the impact of the remittance error,” said the report.

The report also warns you haven’t even seen the worse parts of the construction delays and costs.

“The largest remaining contract is the City Center Guideway and Stations contract, which also includes the most complex utility relocations and the undergrounding of two major 138 kV circuits within a very narrow right of way. Constructability and resulting impacts on traffic and local businesses pose challenges to anticipated schedules,” said the HART report.

Caldwell’s rail line needs about 2 billion more of your dollars to be completed. The mayor wants to get the state to allow the city to keep the excise tax increase. The rail report modestly noted: “The City has various other funding opportunities that are available to add financial capacity if needed.”

Most of those “funding opportunities” involve you and your wallet or purse.

Pay today, pay tomorrow, for something you won’t ride until at least 2025.

Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.