Ige is flawed, but securing challengers is a hard task

With the 2016 election done, speculation is turning to 2018 — mostly about whether Democratic Gov. David Ige will draw major opposition in his party’s primary.

Ige’s surprise primary victory over Gov. Neil Abercrombie in 2014 dispelled that an incumbent governor can’t be beaten, and some disgruntled Democrats now wish the same fate for Ige.

They see him as a weak leader who is painfully slow to move, inarticulate on his policies and lacking rapport with the Legislature in which he served for 28 years.

But when talk turns to Ige’s vulnerability, I say, “Show me the candidate who can beat him.”

In the cauldron of loyalties that defines Hawaii politics, an inoffensive governor of local ancestry isn’t as easy to knock off as a perceived loud-mouthed outsider.

While Abercrombie was Hawaii’s first incumbent governor to suffer a primary loss, such challenges have been common.

The late Gov. John A. Burns in 1970 had to fend off his Lt. Gov. Thomas Gill, while former Gov. George Ariyoshi, a mentor to Ige, faced major primary challenges in each of his three elections from the likes of Gill, Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi and his Lt. Gov. Jean King.

He swatted them all away.

Colleen Hanabusa would have been a good bet to run against Ige a year ago.

A capable and popular former state Senate president and congresswoman, she was looking for a way back in after giving up her U.S. House seat to run unsuccessfully against U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz.

Hanabusa is formidable enough to keep Ige up at night, but now that she’s reclaimed her U.S. House seat after the death of Mark Takai, will she give it up again for another risky challenge?

Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell has the organization, money and following to run credibly for governor, but he’s shown little inclination as he and Ige work collaboratively on homelessness and Oahu rail. The governor enthusiastically endorsed Caldwell’s reelection last year.

U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard also has a following and campaign organization, and she’s always in the conversation when it comes to speculation about potential candidates for governor — or any high office.

She’s also rumored to be a possible challenger to U.S. Sen. Mazie Hirono in 2018 and a candidate for president or vice president in 2020.

After working tirelessly to build national visibility, would she leave Wolf Blitzer behind for a toss-up local race?

Lt. Gov. Shan Tsutsui has reasons to run against his boss, but he’s indicated he’ll run for mayor of Maui, his home island.

Others mentioned — Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho, Maui Mayor Alan Arakawa and ambitious legislators like state Sens. Jill Tokuda, John Green and Will Espero — seem better candidates for lieutenant governor if Tsutsui departs.

So before writing off Ige, I say again, “Show me the candidate.”

Reach David Shapiro at volcanicash@gmail.com.