China’s industrial profit growth slows

BEIJING >> Profit growth at Chinese industrial firms slowed in November as producer price gains appeared to soften.

Industrial profits rose 14.9 percent last month from a year earlier, compared with a previously reported 25.1 percent in October, the statistics bureau said today.

Robust demand and consistent factory inflation have lifted profitability this year. That helps manufacturers pay off their debt and invest more as real corporate borrowing costs decline. Still, as factory-gate prices softens, profit growth may also be due to slow.

“Official year-over-year industrial profits growth is set to revert lower, but growth in reality should also trend down,” economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics Ltd. wrote in a recent report.

Global economy back to ‘normal footing’

LONDON >> The global economy found its post-crisis footing in 2017, with most major developing economies surprising on the upside.

Comparing 2017 predictions made a year ago versus the likely outturn — based on the latest forecasts in Bloomberg’s monthly survey — shows that the pessimists called this one wrong. One of the biggest surprises was the euro area, set for its strongest expansion in a decade. At 2.3 percent, the expected growth is far above the 1.4 percent pace predicted at the start of the year.

“It took a decade but the crisis is now behind us,” said Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier in Geneva. “The global economy has found a ‘normal’ footing, inflation is starting to come back into the picture — although far from posing a risk — and central banks are able to gradually remove exceptionally supportive policies.”

Some central banks have already started down the path of exiting from stimulus, though very gradually. The Federal Reserve is forecasting three interest-rate increases in 2018 after three this year.

So what does 2018 have to offer? According to Goldman Sachs, the main risks to the outlook are political, including the struggling NAFTA negotiations, North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and elections in Italy. But continued loose monetary conditions will support the expansion.  

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ON THE MOVE

Bank of Hawaii has announced the following three new vice presidents:

>> Erin Gutierrez has joined the bank as a vice president and compliance officer for the Trust Services Group. She was previously an assistant vice president and compliance officer for First Hawaiian Bank. Gutierrez has also been a law clerk and an associate attorney.

>> Tina Nakahara has been promoted to vice president and private banking compliance and operational risk manager. She has 28 years of experience in financial services in Hawaii.

>> Daniel Mestas has been promoted to vice president and engineering manager. Prior to joining the bank in 2015, he was an engineering and maintenance manager.

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