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Veteran lawmaker Donna Mercado Kim and Lt. Gov. Doug Chin are in a near tie in the race to represent urban Honolulu in the U.S. House, according to the latest Hawaii Poll, which shows the two front-runners each attracting roughly 30 percent of likely Democratic primary votes.
The poll of 242 likely voters residing in Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District found slightly more voters in favor of Kim, at 32 percent, to Chin’s 29 percent. Thirty- one percent of poll participants said they were undecided.
The poll was conducted March 13-18 by Mason- Dixon Polling & Strategy of Washington, D.C., for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser. The polling was done by telephone landlines and cellphones and has a margin of error of 6.4 percentage points.
The other two candidates running for the congressional seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa are trailing far behind. Honolulu City Council Chairman Ernie Martin, whose district includes Central and North Oahu, attracted 6 percent of likely primary voters, while state Rep. Kaniela Ing (D, South Maui) got 2 percent of voters in the poll.
Longtime Honolulu political columnist Jerry Burris said the results show Kim and Chin are essentially tied at this point.
“With that small of a sample, basically Kim and Chin are tied. There’s really no difference between them,” Burris said. “The names that people are paying attention to are Donna Kim and Doug Chin. I don’t think they’ve made up their minds yet, but those are the names they’re paying attention to.”
“And it seems both Kaniela and Ernie have their work cut out for them if they want to get any kind of attention,” he added.
Burris said Kim (D, Kalihi Valley-Moanalua- Halawa) has high name recognition for her years in public office. It also helps that she previously ran for Congress.
Kim’s political career began in 1983 in the state House of Representatives. She went on to serve for 15 years on the Honolulu City Council before being elected to the state Senate in 2000. In the Senate she served as chairwoman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee and as Senate president for three years.
“Donna has run for Congress before, and she has a fairly high profile in the Legislature so it’s not surprising that she’s recognized by a lot of people and that she’s getting some significant support,” Burris said.
Kim finished second in the 2014 Democratic primary for the 1st Congressional District, losing to the late Mark Takai, 43 percent to 27 percent.
Meanwhile, Chin entered the congressional race in late December, in his first attempt at elected office.
Chin enjoyed a statewide and even national profile as the state’s attorney general before accepting the lieutenant governor’s position following Shan Tsutsui’s abrupt resignation at the end of January. Chin, who was appointed attorney general in 2015 by Gov. David Ige, was a vocal opponent of decisions by President Donald Trump’s administration on immigration and other issues and mounted several legal challenges to the president.
The veteran Honolulu prosecutor previously served as managing director under former Mayor Peter Carlisle.
Kim said she’s encouraged by the poll results.
“I appreciate our early support and take it as a sign that voters know me as a fighter who has delivered for our state, for working families … for our kupuna,” Kim said in a statement.
“I am running because I have the qualifications and experience,” she added. “I am committed to staying in Congress long term to bring stability and continuity in our delegation. The voters can count on me to be that strong voice to get things done for Hawaii as I have for the past 35 years.”
Chin says he’s been campaigning hard to get his message out.
“I am humbled to start off with this level of support given that this is my first campaign and I’m up against some established, perennial politicians,” Chin said in a statement. “I am working hard to earn the good will and the votes of the people of Hawaii’s 1st (Congressional) District. Nothing would make me prouder than to serve Hawaii in Congress.”
Martin, meanwhile, said his standing in the poll isn’t meaningful at this point.
“The numbers are not surprising and reflect what we had anticipated — that those candidates with higher name recognition are polling well at the early stages of the campaign,” Martin said in a statement. “Campaigns in Hawaii are deeply personal, and as we campaign, the voters will come to learn of who I am, what I represent and my record of accomplishments — that I am the local ‘common person’ candidate who is more in tune with their interests and concerns. And, we are confident that we will have the resources to level the playing field and communicate this to the voters of Hawaii.”
Ing, who was elected to the state House in 2012, also said he’s trying not to read too much into the results at this early stage.
“I am a Bernie Sanders- style progressive with a record of getting things done. Our bold economic plan and anti-corruption message is generating incredible energy on social media with tens of thousands of followers and the most small-dollar campaign contributors by far,” Ing said in a statement. “Hundreds of young people are signing up to volunteer. These aren’t the typical folks that respond to polls, but they will vote.”
He added, “Once people get to know what I’m about, we will win, because I’m the only candidate with a message that resonates with everyday local people. Entrenched politicians keep acting like everything is great, and all we have to do is stop Trump. But I’ve been struggling before Trump was elected; most of us have. Hawaii has the lowest wages and highest costs. People want change.”
The Hawaii Poll – March 2018: Congress by Honolulu Star-Advertiser on Scribd
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