Olivia forecast to approach isles from the east early next week
  • Sunday, November 18, 2018
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Olivia forecast to approach isles from the east early next week

  • CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER

    The forecast track for Hurricane Norman as of 11 p.m. Friday.

  • CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER

    The forecast track for Hurricane Olivia as of 11 p.m. Hawaii time Friday.

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UPDATE: 11 p.m.

Hurricane Olivia is forecast to approach the islands from the east early next week, then move through the region Tuesday night through midweek.

Olivia is tracking west-northwest near 15 mph, about 1,200 miles east of Hilo and 1,370 miles east of Honolulu.

It’s expected to move into the Central Pacific basin in the next 24 hours.

“Gradual weakening is predicted over the next day or so, but Olivia is forecast to remain a hurricane during the next few days,” forecasters said.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

As Tropical Storm Norman moves away from the state, trades will continue to trend down overnight. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, weather officials said.

Norman is tracking north-northwest near 9 mph, about 405 miles northeast of Honolulu and 420 miles north-northeast of Hilo.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center. Light and variable winds are expected Saturday through Monday.

5:15 p.m.

Hurricane Olivia continues to gradually weaken as it proceeds on a path that could take it directly over the islands next week as a tropical storm.

As of 5 p.m. Olivia was a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, centered 1,290 miles east of Hilo and 1,460 miles east of Honolulu, moving west-northwest at 15 mph. A gradual turn toward the west is expected Saturday night or Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 30 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend 115 miles out, forecasters said.

The five-day forecast has Olivia as a tropical storm, with sustained winds of 50 mph, passing over the islands on Wednesday. Only Kauai County is outside the five-day “cone of uncertainty.”

“Olivia is forecast to approach the main Hawaiian islands from the east early next week, but it is too soon to determine the exact location and magnitude of any impacts,” said forecasters with the National Hurricane Center in Miami, which monitors the Eastern Pacific. “Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Olivia this weekend and use this time to enact your hurricane action plan.”

Olivia is expected to enter the Central Pacific late Saturday as a Category 1 hurricane.

Forecasters caution: “Do not focus on the exact track or intensity forecast, or any specific landfall location, as errors can be large at extended time ranges. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could be felt anywhere in the islands as significant impacts could extend well away from the center.”

Tropical Storm Norman, meanwhile, is safely north of the islands and expected to further weaken to a post-tropical remnant by Monday as it moves even further away from the state.

At 5 p.m., the Central Pacific Hurricane Center said Norman was 390 miles northeast of Honolulu, with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, and moving north-northwest at 10 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 140 miles from Norman’s center.

Norman-generated waves have eastern shores of most islands under a high surf advisory. The advisory lasts until 6 a.m. Saturday for the Big Island and Maui, and until 6 p.m. for Molokai, Oahu and Kauai, according to the National Weather Service. Waves up to 12 feet are expected for eastern shores of Molokai, Oahu and Kauai tonight, lowering to 6 to 9 feet Saturday, forecasters said.

11 a.m.

Both Olivia and Norman continued to weaken today, the latter becoming a tropical storm as it passes safely north of the islands while the former dropped back down to a Category 2 hurricane on a direct path toward Hawaii.

No longer a major hurricane, Olivia was about 1,375 miles east of Hilo and 1,550 east of Honolulu while packing maximum sustained winds of 110 mph and heading west-northwest at 16 mph at 11 a.m., according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, which monitors the Eastern Pacific. This general motion is forecast to continue through Saturday. A gradual turn toward the west is expected Saturday night or Sunday. A slow weakening trend is expected during the next few days, forecasters said.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from Olivia’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

The entire state, except for Kauai County, is now within the storm’s five-day “cone of uncertainty”, which shows Olivia near the Big Island and Maui Wednesday. By that time, the current forecast calls for it to be a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, according to forecasters. However, they warned that Olivia may not “weaken as fast as some of the (forecast) guidance suggests.”

Closer to the islands, Norman was located about 330 miles north-northeast of Hilo and 375 miles east-northeast of Honolulu packing maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and moving north-northwest at 9 mph at 11 a.m., according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from Norman’s center.

Rapid weakening is forecast through tomorrow, with a slower rate of weakening expected Sunday and Monday.

The eastern shores of most islands remain under a high surf warning, due to the passing of Norman, until 6 p.m.

9:20 a.m.

Hurricane Olivia remained on an unsteady path toward the islands and could arrive next week as a tropical storm with wind speeds between 39 to 74 mph, said Henry Lau, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Honolulu.

“The track may still change,” Lau said. “It’s way too early to call. … The public should pay close attention to it. Even if it’s not hurricane status, if it gets closer to us, there still may be some pretty good winds and some localized heavy rain.”

At the same time, weather forecasters and hurricane trackers are keeping an eye on the possible development of another tropical storm, which is about 2,500 miles east of Hilo and would be called Paul if it forms into a tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center said at 8 a.m. that the system has a 90 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone in the next five days.

“Paul is spinning up,” Lau said. “But it’s too early to tell what that guy’s going to do. It’s still far away.”

Hurricane Norman, meanwhile, continues to pass safely northeast of the islands, but is churning up waves for eastern shores. A high surf warning has been extended to 6 p.m. today, with surf up to 15 feet along east facing shores of the Big Island, Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai.

“Surf will fall to advisory levels tonight and may continue into Saturday for the western end of the island chain,” National Weather Service forecasters in Honolulu said today.

They warned of water occasionally sweeping across beaches and of strong breaking waves and currents.

PREVIOUS COVERAGE

Hurricanes Norman and Olivia both weakened overnight as the former continued on a track away from the islands while the latter remained on track toward Hawaii.

Olivia was located about 1,465 miles east of Hilo and 1,640 miles east of Honolulu while packing maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and moving west-northwest at 16 mph at 5 a.m. today, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center

This general motion is forecast to continue through Saturday. A gradual turn toward the west is expected Saturday night or Sunday.

Olivia remains a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A slow weakening trend is expected during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from Olivia’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

Barely a hurricane now, Norman was located about 280 miles northeast of Hilo and 360 miles east-northeast of Honolulu while packing maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and moving northwest at 9 mph at 5 a.m. today, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

This motion is expected to continue through Saturday, becoming north-northwest on Sunday.

Weakening is forecast through Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from Norman’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.

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