Isle tourism still pacing ahead of 2017

Neither strikes nor flooding nor volcanic eruptions nor natural disasters appear to have curbed this year’s Hawaii tourism juggernaut from pacing ahead of a record 2017.

The Hawaii Tourism Authority reported Thursday that total arrivals in October rose 4.4 percent year-over-year to 770,359. With the first 10 months of the year in the books, Hawaii’s visitor count is up more than 6.3 percent over last year’s record pace to nearly 8.3 million.

Many tourism officials predicted earlier this year that Hawaii would top the 10-million mark for visitors in 2018. It now appears the final count for the year will be just shy of that number but still well above the 9.4 million visitors that came in 2017. The state will need visitor arrivals to climb by 6.7 percent in November and December to reach 10 million.

While the arrival numbers remained strong in October, spending was down 0.7 percent at $1.31 billion.

Arrivals, visitor days and airlift are on track with the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism’s third-quarter forecast that came out in August. However, daily spending and visitor spending dipped below the pace needed to meet DBEDT’s full-year forecast.

DBEDT has forecast that by year’s end statewide visitor arrivals could increase by more than 6 percent to 9.96 million, and spending could grow more than 9 percent to nearly $18.5 billion.

During the first 10 months of the year, visitor spending grew nearly 9 percent to $14.93 billion. Trans-Pacific air seats rose nearly 9 percent during the first 10 months of the year to more than 11 million seats.

The results belie some of the industry concerns that have emerged since challenges surfaced in the second quarter. Hawaii’s tourism struggles started in April when parts of Kauai dealt with massive flooding. Nearly 50 inches of rain fell in one 24-hour period. Haena and Wainiha are still closed to general traffic; however, island tourism has come back nicely.

Sue Kanoho, executive director of the Kauai Visitors Bureau, said, “The good news is that people quickly got clarity that the rest of the island was open for business. We continued as is and then starting seeing pickups due to concerns about the volcano on Hawaii island and from five weeks of strike activity on Oahu and Maui. We’re still up higher than last year, and last year was a pretty good year.”

The eruption hiatus at Kilauea is continuing, and Hurricane Lane and Tropical Storm Olivia weren’t as menacing as forecast, but canceled flights from these events hurt the Big Isle in September. While Hawaii island’s tourism has started to come back, visitor arrivals and spending were still down in October, no doubt the result of the uncertainty that was present when consumers were booking their travel.

Unite Here Local 5 ended a 51-day strike Tuesday that involved 2,700 hotel workers at five properties, including the Sheraton Waikiki, Royal Hawaiian Hotel, Westin Moana Surf­rider, Sheraton Princess Kaiulani and Sheraton Maui. The strike, which started Oct. 8, put a damper on Oahu tourism since it involved four major Waikiki properties, including three beach-front hotels. In October, Oahu posted visitor gains but experienced a drop in spending.

The strike also affected Maui, which was still reeling from a raging brush fire that swept across the Lahaina hillsides Aug. 24, fanned by 70 mph gusts from Hurricane Lane. The inferno burned 2,000 acres and claimed 30 vehicles and 21 structures, most of them homes. Heavy rain and flooding brought by Hurricane Lane also dealt serious damage to Maui, which also had to battle flooding and landslides from Tropical Storm Olivia. Still, Maui along with Kauai realized October spending and arrivals gains.

Joe Toy, president and CEO of Hospitality Advisors, said, “There certainly was a lot of bad press. Damage was done, but some of the damage — like the guests who decided not to book — is hard to quantify.”

Keith Vieira, principal of KV &Associates, Hospitality Consulting, said that the strike and other visitor concerns were settled so late into this year that he fears booking challenges could extend into the first quarter of 2019.

“I think we’ll beat 2017, but what’s concerning is what has happened in the last three or four months because that sets the trend for the future,” Vieira said.