Opposition will halt HEI sale, investors research firm says

NextEra Energy Inc. will not win state approval for its $4.3 billion buyout of Hawaiian Electric Industries, according to UBS Financial Services Inc., a Zurich-based investment research firm.

In a December report, UBS said the Florida-based energy company’s purchase of HEI will not happen because of local skepticism.

“We continue to bias towards the deal breaking up given persistent consternations from an array of constituencies in Hawaii,” UBS’ New York-based energy team said in the report.

NextEra announced its intent to purchase HEI for $4.3 billion in December 2014. The last stamp of approval the companies need to close the sale would come from the Hawaii Public Utilities Commission. As the companies and HEI’s utility customers wait for the PUC to make a decision, the sale has attracted polarized reviews from local stakeholders.

The investment firm said it is biased toward the sale falling through because of concern about NextEra’s commitment to the state’s 100 percent renewable energy goals — a concern Gov. David Ige noted when announcing his opposition to the sale in July.

“The debate around NEE’s commitments to Hawaii’s renewables-goals have been an area of concern for quite some time now; and we think the debate will intensify,” UBS said.

The report highlights an email in which HEI CEO Connie Lau wrote to HEI’s general counsel Chet Richardson on Nov. 24, 2014, claiming Moray Dewhurst, NEE’s CFO, “made it clear that we are the snack … on the way to their (NEE’s) desired buffet luncheon to acquire other regulated utilities.”

The email was one of several confidential documents released during the first round of hearings held by the PUC with local stakeholders. The hearings will resume Feb. 1.

Not all financial analysts have the same outlook as UBS. Some analysts say they are confident in the sale closing.

“I think it will happen but I realize there is a lot of political noise,” said Charles Fishman, analyst at Morningstar Inc., Chicago-based investment firm. “I certainly don’t diminish that. I would say there is even a 75 percent chance the deal is going to happen.”

“You never know until its over,” said Paul Patterson, analyst at Glenrock Associates LLC, a New York investment firm. “There is no question it has its challenges.”

Some challenges include political opposition.

The biggest two-day drop in HEI’s share price since the sale was announced came after Ige said he is opposed to the sale in its current form. On July 21, when Ige held a news conference to announce his opposition, the share price fell 3.3 percent, and it fell another 3.8 percent the following day.

The day after NextEra announced it intended to purchase HEI for $4.3 billion — or roughly $34 a share — HEI’s share price jumped 14 percent to close at $32.22 from $28. That’s typical when a purchase is announced as investors anticipate the shares will rise to match the sale price.

HEI shares continued rising until reaching a closing high of $34.83 on Jan. 29. In February the price started what became a long, slow decline back to the $28 level. It closed at $28.90 on Monday.