More visitors expected in 2015 than ’14

The Hawaii Tourism Authority has set a target of hosting nearly 8.6 million visitors this year, up from the 8.3 million who came last year, despite a dip in January arrivals.

The board also set a goal to increase visitor spending to $15.58 billion in 2015.

If Hawaii’s visitor industry achieves these new goals, 2015 would finish the year with 5.6 percent higher spending and 3.7 percent higher arrivals than it attained in 2014, which was a record year.

Better airlift and strong fundamentals from Hawaii’s North American market drove the target increases, which are expected to occur notwithstanding January’s cooling-off period.

The Hawaii Tourism Authority reported Thursday that compared with January 2014, last month’s arrivals stayed relatively flat at 678,870. Some 4,000 fewer visitors came this January as compared with the same month in 2014.

Total spending fell 2.5 percent to $1.4 billion. January’s average daily visitor spending also fell 3.2 percent year-over-year to $193 per person, mainly due to declines from Japan and from the "All Other Markets" category, which includes Europe, Oceania, Latin America and Asian nations outside of Japan.

Williams said a reduction in international air seats, which fell 0.9 percent year-over-year, and the continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar against foreign currencies contributed to January’s slight declines, which were contained by domestic sector gains.

"The year started off below expectations as visitor spend was down, along with Far East arrivals," said Jerry Gibson, area vice president for Hilton Hawaii. "We are experiencing the same thing in February. The very positive thing for Hawaii is that the air into the islands is still good, and many airlines will be adding flights for the remainder of the year."

But the HTA sees better days ahead.

David Uchiyama, HTA’s vice president of brand management, said a record level of scheduled air seats from the U.S. West to Hawaii in the first half of 2015 should produce more robust results than the market experienced in January. As a result, the HTA increased its U.S. West arrivals and spending targets for 2015 by 4.4 percent. The HTA now expects this market to hit 3.35 million arrivals and bring in $5.28 billion in visitor spending. If the market delivers, it will mean an actual year-over-year gain of 2.7 percent for arrivals and 6.4 percent for spending.

An added Delta flight between Hawaii and New York’s JFK Airport and an 8.3 percent increase in seat capacity were contributing reasons for HTA’s decision to boost goals for the U.S. East, which is now expected to hit 1.75 million arrivals and $3.84 billion in expenditures. If the market performs to expectations, it will finish 2015 with a 2 percent gain in arrivals and a 4.1 percent gain in spending.

HTA also is more optimistic about Canada due to increased carrier competition, especially from Air Canada’s low-cost carrier option, Rogue. The board increased the market’s spending goal by 3.4 percent and its arrivals goal by 4.6 percent. The new spending goal is $1.17 billion, and the new arrivals goal is 562,640. If these targets are achieved, it will represent a year-over-year gain of 7.5 percent in arrivals and an 8.7 percent increase in spending.

However, the board reduced its spending goal for the beleaguered Japan market, which has struggled to meet the aggressive targets that were set after HTA pledged to work with the Japan Association of Travel Agents to increase the number of Japa­nese visitors to Hawaii to 2 million by the end of 2016. This year the HTA kept the Japan arrivals goal flat at 1.57 million and dropped its spending goal by 0.5 percent to $2.5 billion. However, if targets are achieved, they will bring a 3.8 percent arrivals gain and a 4.1 percent spending rise over 2014 actuals.

The HTA also downgraded its goals for the Korea market by 8.9 percent for visitor arrivals and 8.3 percent for spending because airline load factors, yields and seats are concerning. The new goal for 2015 is to welcome 190,000 Korean visitors, who will spend nearly $360 million in Hawaii. If the market reaches these targets, arrivals will come in 11.7 percent better than they did in 2014, and spending also will grow by 12.8 percent year-over-year.

The HTA pushed China’s arrivals goal for 2015 up 6.3 percent to 180,740 visitors and elevated the spending goal by 7.1 percent to nearly $464 million. While China’s economic growth slowed down to its lowest in the past two decades, Uchi­yama said the market has had sustained air capacity out of Beijing and Shanghai. If the market meets expectations, it will finish the year with 12 percent better arrivals and a 9.7 percent improvement in spending.

The HTA also boosted its targets for Oceania, which should reach 401,300 arrivals and more than $921 million in spending in 2015. Making that goal would mean the market finishes the year with 3.4 percent higher spending and a 6.5 percent gain in arrivals over 2014. Though the currency exchange rate is no longer favorable for visitors from the Land Down Under, the Outrigger Reef hotel pool was full of them Tuesday.

"We love it here. We love the weather, the shopping and the people," said Danny Sammartino of Melbourne, who was frolicking with his children Giselle and Dante. "It’s our second time to holiday in Hawaii in a year." 

The spending target for Europe in 2015 was downgraded by 11.2 percent, and the arrivals goal dropped by 1.7 percent, partially because the euro and pound are weakening against the dollar. Some 153,130 European visitors are expected to visit Hawaii in 2015 and spend more than $344 million. If the market achieves these goals, it will finish the year 7 percent higher than in 2014.