Spending expected to rise, but at a slower pace

NEW YORK >> Americans are expected to spend at a slower pace than last year during the crucial winter holidays, weighed down by sluggish wage growth and other factors, according to the nation’s largest retail industry trade group.

The National Retail Federation, based in Washington, D.C., predicts holiday spending will be up 3.7 percent to $630.5 billion, slower than the 4.1 percent increase during last year’s November-December period.

It would mark the first slowdown since 2012, when retailers were hurt by Superstorm Sandy, which disrupted households and businesses for months, as well as other distractions, including a stalemate in Congress.

The dollar figure excludes sales from automobiles, gasoline and restaurants but includes online spending.

The group estimates that online spending should be up 6 to 8 percent for the two-month period to as much as $105 billion. That would be in line with the 5.8 percent increase over last year’s holiday season.

Still, the holiday sales estimate is much higher than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent. But the growth has been choppy since the deep downturn of 2008 when holiday sales fell 4.6 percent from the previous year.