Democratic gubernatorial winner not out of the woods

An Abercrombie victory or Ige win in Hawaii’s race for governor is going to be just half of the story.

Although this column was written before Saturday’s Democratic primary, part of the outcome is already known.

This year’s campaign will go all the way until the last vote is counted in November.

The unusual three-way general election race between the prevailing Democrat and Republican James "Duke" Aiona and Independent Mufi Hannemann cancel all Democratic sure bets.

"Even if Abercrombie wins renomination, he may well falter in the general election," notes Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, in his political column.

The Hawaii Poll taken by Ward Research for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now has possible good news for the GOP this fall.

The survey shows that if Abercrombie is the Democrat, he would lose to Aiona, the former GOP lieutenant governor.

Hannemann has not appeared within striking distance whether the Democrat is either Abercrombie or Ige.

If Ige is the nominee, the poll shows that he would lose to Aiona, 41 percent to 34 percent, with Hannemann getting 15 percent.

In that projection, Ige would take 48 percent of the Democratic vote in the general election. He would also get half of the Japanese-American vote, but less than half of other ethnic groups.

In contrast, Aiona would still pick up 25 percent of the Democrats, and most of the Republican and independent voters.

An Abercrombie primary win would suggest, according to the poll, an even bigger loss for Democrats in the general.

The poll shows Aiona winning 45 percent to Abercrombie’s 30 percent, with Hannemann getting 14 percent.

Aiona is turning this into a comparison between himself and Abercrombie. The campaign marketing slogan — "Trust. Respect. Balance." — plays off of Abercrombie’s problems controlling his aggressive, confrontational style.

Although GOP suggestions are not likely to go far in the Democratic-dominated state Legislature, Aiona has already fleshed out a rental housing program.

"I know the Legislature sees affordable housing as a priority, so I look forward to working with them to accelerate the availability of affordable rentals throughout Hawaii," said Aiona when he released the plan.

An Ige candidacy presents Aiona with a new set of problems because it is likely that the now-fractured Democratic tribes would be able to reset, if not reunite, in the face of a new GOP threat.

Democrats will remember how a fractured political party in 2002 opened the door for the Republican Maui Mayor Linda Lingle to walk into the governor’s office.

So far the public worker unions have split their endorsements between Ige and Abercrombie, but would be more likely to come together instead of sitting on their hands in the general.

Candidate Ige serving as a truce-maker among the unions would strengthen his political reputation and might make it even more difficult for Aiona to win in November.

Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.