Voters gloomier than gov about Hawaii’s economy

A new poll taken to judge voters’ thinking about the local economy holds little good news for the reelection campaign of Democratic Gov. Neil Abercrombie.

The Hawaii Perspectives Fall 2013 poll was taken for the Chamber of Commerce of Hawaii, the Pacific Resource Partnership and the Hawaii Business Roundtable by New York-based Global Strategy Group.

The poll shows, according to an analysis done for the chamber, that Hawaii voters are "extremely cautious regarding economic issues.

"There is broad agreement that Hawaii residents are better off than they were a year ago, but few believe that good times will be long-lasting," said the poll.

Fifty-six percent of voters say they are better off but some of that has to be linked to the survey also finding that half of those surveyed reported that their family income was tied to the government. All government workers have gotten pay raises this year.

The poll was based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 26-Oct. 1 with a random sample of 700 registered voters in Hawaii. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Voters, the survey reports, are not that cheered about the state economy. Forty-six percent say it is getting better and 45 percent say it is getting worse.

That pessimism runs straight against the central theme of Abercrombie’s re-election message that good times are here again.

"We are now in a better situation to address key social and community issues like early education, environmental protection, homelessness and support for our seniors. Only with a strong economy and sound financial management can we adequately address these important issues," Abercrombie told members of the chamber while reviewing his budget plans.

Although across the country total spending by state governments is higher than it has been in 20 years, Hawaii’s state spending is down 3 percent, according to data assembled by PEW Charitable Trusts’ State and Consumer Initiatives (http://goo.gl/K5PXZW).

Pew found that Hawaii’s employment rate is also down 5.5 percentage points from 2007, before the Great Recession. In 2007, employment for workers age 25 to 54, the prime working years, was 81.9 percent. Today that same group has an employment rate of 76.4 percent.

Again measured by its recovery from the recession, Hawaii is showing tax revenues up 4 percent more than in 2007, according to Pew.

Although the state Council on Revenues last week lowered the state’s revenue estimates, Abercrombie said in a press release that things are going well.

"The Council on Revenues’ forecast supports my belief that Hawaii’s economy is already running at peak conditions. Although the adjusted forecast suggests slightly reduced potential revenues in the current fiscal year, the amount is very modest and manageable in the state’s financial plan," Abercrombie said.

Overriding Abercrombie’s optimism is a feeling reflected in the survey that voters are also equally pessimistic.

When asked the general question of, are "things in Hawaii going in the right direction, or are they on the wrong track?" voters split nearly in half.

Thirty-nine percent said things were on the right track, and 37 percent said "wrong track."

Oahu voters split equally, while Democrats were at 48 percent optimistic, with Republicans at 45 percent pessimistic.

Most telling was the views of independents, the voters usually courted in an election. Of that group, 34 percent are thinking we are okay and 41 percent are saying Hawaii is on the wrong track.

Happy campers we are not.

Abercrombie is facing Democratic state Sen. David Ige in the primary in August and is considered the favorite.

This recent statewide poll shows his political message will need an aggressive campaign because all voters are not seeing the same Hawaii as Abercrombie.

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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.