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Democrats would be wise to approach the next three months cautiously because a lot could go wrong.
They are moving into uncharted territory.
This has never happened before. They have never had a governor turned into a lame duck by the voters. Especially when there is no assurance that a Democrat will take his place.
Neil Abercrombie’s administration comes to an end on the 1st of December. So if conventional wisdom has it that the next governor of Hawaii is likely to be a Democrat, think again.
Pearl City Democrat Sen. David Ige ran a savvy, if profoundly underfunded campaign, but he now faces significant forces gathering to stop it.
First, Republicans have former GOP Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona, who as the GOP was saying about Ronald Reagan, "He’s tanned, rested and ready." So far Aiona has run a simple, if competent campaign that kept his profile up during the Democratic primary.
Aiona is also likely to enjoy some major-league help. The Republican Governors Association was backing Aiona in 2010 when he fell to Abercrombie and is expected to be back with paid commercials this year.
Already the RGA has been chewing on Ige.
"Ige demonstrated during the primary election that he is no different from Governor Neil Abercrombie, unable to tell voters how he would do anything differently," said Gail Gitcho, RGA communications director, in an email this week.
Of course, Ige will not go into the general election undefended.
The Democratic Governors Association is also readying its support.
"We will do everything in our power to ensure Hawaii doesn’t turn back to the failed Republican policies of the Lingle-Aiona administration, which resulted in less jobs, massive deficits, and Furlough Fridays," Sabrina Singh, DGA deputy communications director, said in an email.
Former Mayor Mufi Hannemann has no such national group backing the Hawaii Independent Party. So far Hannemann has raised slightly more than $200,000 and will have to start some serious fundraising to remain competitive.
The most subtle challenge, however, belongs to Ige.
Ige needs to reach out to Abercrombie’s supporters to make sure they don’t wander off and ignore the general election.
Back in 1998, former Maui Mayor Linda Lingle lost the general election to Gov. Ben Cayetano. Lingle got 197,000 votes in that loss.
Four years later, she came back and won with just 197,000 votes.
Cayetano won in 1998 with 204,000 and Mazie Hirono lost in 2002 with 179,000 votes. So the entire voting pool shrank.
That could happen this year as Democrats, either dispirited by Abercrombie’s trampling or just not interested in an Ige candidacy, stay home and let Aiona take it.
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, reported this week that "Abercrombie’s defeat by 36.1 points is the largest primary loss by any sitting governor in U.S. history."
House Speaker Joe Souki, who had strongly supported Abercrombie in the primary, this week announced that he is endorsing Ige and hopes to help the Democrat’s campaign.
That is the sort of uniting of the tribes that Ige must accomplish this summer if he is going to prevail in face of experienced opposition this fall.
Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.
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