Original plan for rail is still the best one
The development of Honolulu’s rail-transit system is a saga, but it should not be quite the mystery it’s been.
The unanswered question: Why are cost estimates so out of whack?
Why have the projected costs doubled over the years, with the bottom line now seeming closer to the $8.1 billion forecast by federal authorities?
The feds, long seen as immovable on the central specifications of the project, are worried enough about cost control that they’re willing to hear proposals from the agency at the helm of the construction, the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation (HART).
HART was given until Aug. 7 to inform federal transit officials whether or not it plans to change tracks.
But in order to make the right decision in any quest for cost savings, the agency will need a better way to project expenses than what’s been used to date, given the double-digit increases the public has witnessed.
City officials must use their power — affirmed through the new ordinance that extended the project’s financing tax surcharge — to keep a watchful eye over how the money is being spent.
And the candidates vying to become mayor for the critical next four years must specify what they intend to do to direct the project toward a better course. Sending and hewing to a message that costs will be examined very closely would set the right tone.
HART also must ride herd over contractors and subcontractors to rein in costs as much as possible.
It’s likely that the authority’s best option will be to keep the current Kapolei- to-Ala Moana alignment and at least most of the station plans intact. But six alternatives were being contemplated last week:
>> Complete current plans to Middle Street, but then construct only the guideway to Ala Moana Center, eliminating all seven of the stations envisioned in between. But no public purpose would be served by passing over seven of the destinations where many riders would likely get off.
>> End the rail at Middle Street, with passengers transferring to complete the journey via bus line. HART would need to determine how much this would suppress ridership from commuters who don’t want a two-step trip.
>> Continue the alignment from Middle Street to Ala Moana Center with an at-grade rail system. Costing out the more expansive excavation would involve more complexity, and time. New burial sites might be found and require vetting by the Oahu Island Burial Council. And the work would take up even more ground space and intensify disruption to businesses.
>> Build the project as far as funding allows, and consider cutting or deferring stations to help lengthen the line. This “winging it” approach abandons good planning principles. The terminus point does matter.
>> Entertain public-private partnerships in which investors could help pay some construction costs. This is the one notion that seems sensible, but it’s yet unclear what appetite the business community has for developing around stations.
>> Change the Dillingham Boulevard alignment to Nimitz Highway — except that most desirable residential and business destinations are a long walk away, several blocks mauka.
HART officials weren’t pleased with any of them, for the reasons described, among others. None would complete the line to Ala Moana for the $6.8 billion the project is now set to receive from current taxing authorization.
More delays would result in order to do the additional studies for new alignments and complete the additional engineering work such plan changes would require.
There have already been shocking discoveries of changes needed, such as drilling far more deeply into the ground for support posts along Dillingham Boulevard and allowance for more space in construction around high-voltage power lines.
Colleen Hanabusa and others on the board asked HART staff to explain why the numbers have been so far off, and so far, no acceptable answer has been tendered.
It’s not good enough to say that the project has been dogged by “bad luck,” as Executive Director Dan Grabauskas has said. He also has said that it’s common practice for general contractors to handle the finer cost details.
Simply put, Honolulu’s project faces additional challenges and needs additional oversight.
Fortunately, that’s now required. Bill 15, enacted in February, mandates that HART report on such details to the Council within 30 days of the end of each fiscal year.
Public input could be useful to find the way forward, and the people’s elected representatives ultimately may need to re-evaluate the allotted tax revenue. But the decision on the right course is HART’s to make and should not be left, as one board member suggested, to a public poll.
The people voted for a 20-mile system, along a carefully studied alignment. A system that follows that basic course and provides sensible commuter connections is what the people said they want — and still need.
It’s HART’s job to deliver something as close as possible to what was envisioned, and promised.
61 responses to “Original plan for rail is still the best one”
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Excellent commentary. Rail needs to be completed as planned for our better future. We just need to make sure that rail is done the right way going forward.
No, rail does NOT need to be completed as planned(?), since it was really NOT planned appropriately in the first place. It has been a “wing it”, design-as-you-go boondoggle since day one! You don’t start construction on any project without proper research, engineering, and planning. Rail has not been done the right way, and you’ve (ukuleleblue) just admitted as such with your third sentence! The financial bleeding on this project must stop. Convert it into a BRT roadway or tear it down. Continuing this travesty of a project will financially hurt the current and future generations of the city and county of Honolulu, and perhaps the state taxpayers as a whole should the state government have to step in to bail out this over-budget, over-priced, monstrosity of an out-of-control, and obsolete train system.
agree. And no, the people did not vote on what we have now. They were given a bad plan with phony numbers behind it. Do you think knowing now, that “the people” or the 45% who voted would vote for this now? Mufi sold this shibai as a make-work project and the unions drove the vote hopeful of jobs.
Dan Grabauskas needs to be fired.
There’s been over a thousand public meetings in the planning process. Of course, rail is well planned. We have also had 3 public ballots on rail and they have all passed.
Of course design-bid-build is the safest way to go but what entity is wiling to pay the upfront design/engineering costs for 100% design before construction starts? Design-Build is now the norm for many large civil projects and thus it follows that unforeseen conditions such as lava tubes, soils, lawsuits, held up EIS documents, and increased labor and material costs cannot be effectively controlled. Most design-build projects start well before final engineering is completed so change orders are the norm as construction progresses. Change orders add to the cost pure and simple. If you want a perfect project, Design it, bid, it, and build it. I assure you nowhere will you find a contractor willing to bid on a project today that he/she cannot start for five years. What I am saying: don’t lay all the blame on HART
There has NEVER been a yes or no vote on a rail project from an empty field near Kapolei to the tourist mall. As a matter of fact there has never been any yes or no vote on a rail project to anywhere.
Why wasn’t rail done the right way from the beginning and not just going forward?
$$$$$
We have Mayor Caldwell and HART everything they asked for and it wasn’t enough. So they got another $1.6 billion dollar tax increase which they promised us would be enough to complete the rail project. Guess what? They were lying.
Now the FTA can’t continue to look the other way and they are withholding half a billion dollars because they are fed up with Mayor Caldwell and HART’s incompetence, waste, and stonewalling.
You want build rail as originally planned? Great! I’ll take a $3.2 billion dollar train that runs from Ewa and Kapolei and goes to UH and the the Feds will pay for half. Remember that one? The one with seats?
Now, since you clearly have nothing worthwhile to add, why don’t you take a few seconds and finally stop dodging the question of where you live on the mainland and what your connection is to this mess of a rail project? Can you possible beleve that everyone doesn’t see right through you?
Kalaheo,Kauai?
@ukuleleblue: The tow line that we just need to make sure rail is done the right way has been repeated for years (Mayor Caldwell made it a giant part of his campaign 4 years ago) and yet nothing has changed. Sorry, but the state just won’t believe the lies from those that are building the rail and cough up any more money. No lawmaker will risk any more tax increases that would jeopardize their job and anyone that does will probably get voted out of office during the next election cycle. If Caldwell gets voted out of office, it’s almost guaranteed that any elevated rail system into town past Middle Street will be stopped or modified significantly (Either the Nimitz Route, the system being at-grade, or elevated with no stations between Middle Street and Ala Moana Center).
Hmmm…ukuBS up all night into the wee hours making very early rah-rah comments on the SA rail “survey” AND this editorial.
Makes you wonder who he knows in SA/HART and how his handlers are telling him how to react….
SA just stop already! This paper has been a cheerleader from the beginning of this sad lie. You are part of the problem, but won’t own up to your responsibility. Sure, you get the support of certain deep pocket advertisers, meanwhile, they’re cleaning out our pockets, and for generations to come. Have you no shame?!
Take a hike ukus. And take your misguided rail commentary from the bought and paid for Star Advertiser with you. The people voted for this? With blank votes that counted as yes unlike any other vote in Hawaii history? The people voted for a train that would cost $3.5 billion and go to UH. We’re looking at least three times and counting that cost and not going to UH. So take a hike SA.
going fwd seems to be working. Construction of rail to Aloha stadium seems to have picked up. Hope the construction of rail stations get started.
The answer to the Big Q and to the editorial as to the HART options listed for consideration was stated the other day: “none of the above.” The solution can be found in Chapters 7 and 8 of “Maglev America,” conversion of the completed (to date) guideway for the steel wheels on steel rails (SWSR) system for use by urban magnetic levitation (maglev) technology. A 32-mile, 24-station system using medium-speed maglev rail can be developed within last year’s budget estimate of $6.57 billion and fully completed by 2024. This was submitted in testimony to the City Council and briefed at a town hall meeting last week. I do not recall, by the way, that the people ever voted for a 20-mile system. At $8 billion, 59 percent opposed rail according to the Star-Advertiser’s own poll in January. Delivered SWSR trains can be used on the converted guideway during transition to maglev systems, with the remaining miles of the alignment built for maglev-only operations, with much less impact on utilities and businesses. The alignment would eventually be two-way from Ko Olina to the Hawaii Convention Center, with a one-way loop (to lessen the physical and visual impact) from there through Waikiki on Kuhio to the zoo, mauka to the UH-Manoa campus, and back on Kapiolani Boulevard to the Center. Maglev also will save billions of dollars in operations and maintenance costs over the next 30 years. This newspaper is not investigating how the above can be done, leaving one suspicious as to why it seems unable to go along with anything other than whatever HART may decide. HART seems clueless as to the potential of maglev to not only complete the plan but even enhance it, and the board probably has not even invested the 20 bucks to read the book and maybe learn something from real rail experts. They might find a way out of the current morass and even look good while bringing 21st Century rail transit to Honolulu. I also think that every candidate for mayor should take a position on rail, giving the voters a chance to make an informed vote in August. Do it, but do it right by conversion to maglev.
For full disclosure, how much does the SA and it’s parent company have at stake in rail? You continue to push for this even with the mismanagement and huge cost over runs.
How much does the Managing Editor and the Publisher have at stake in Rail?
Like Pali_Hwy said above…SA is BEHOLDEN to the developers that take out huge ad space in full color on their pages…
Not to mention SA holdings probably has quite a bit of speculative real estate purchases in Krakaako…
Yes, why have projected costs doubled over the years? It is interesting to note that Japan recently opened a bullet train line linking the islands of Honshu and Hokkaido. The shinkansen (bullet train) line extension between Aomori in northern Honshu and Hakodate on Hokkaido is 92 miles long including a 33-mile tunnel bored under the sea between the two islands. Most of the line outside the tunnel is elevated and has many tunnels bored through mountains and bridges across many rivers. It also is dual tracked. The cost? It cost an astronomical amount of about $4.85 billion for the 92-mile extension or about $52.7 million per mile. Compare that to HART’s dinky little 20-mile route. At a currently estimated cost of $8.1 billion, the cost for a 20-mile elevated one track line will be about $405 million per mile. The cost difference is mind boggling. Someone at HART needs to explain why our costs are so much higher than Japan’s cost. How about Ukuleleblue?
…crickets…
“Original plan for rail is still the best one”
I assume the editors of the Star Advertiser are advocating a return to the $3.2 billion dollar rail that ran from Ewa and Kapolei to UH that we were promised.
Because the original plan for rail was never an $8 billion dollar (and rising) train that ignored traffic weary west side communities in favor of a new development well outside those areas and running to a luxury shopping mall instead of UH.
This is corporate welfare and theft of public resources at its very worst and I’m shocked the Star Advertiser co times to advocate unlimited spending on this failed and leaderless project.
It also surprising that the editors of the Star Advertiser can discuss the need for leadership among Mayoral candidates and neglect to mention that current Mayor Kirk Caldwell ran on a platform of “building rail better” and promised to bring the rail in “on time and on budget” yet has been noticeably absent in recent weeks as this bad news and hard issues are being discussed.
C’mon SA, we need better than this. This is on the level of ukuleleblue’s out of touch and condescending paste-ups from the mainland.
SA: The correct question you should be asking is: Where will the additional $1.3 billion and any money for new revisions come from to pay for what you advocate must be completed?
In a just world, it would come from the SA’s bank account, as they think so highly about it.
Lol, NO attacking SA now.
Maybe Ukublue or Wiliki wrote the SA editorial?
Primary Day is August 13th.
Vote for The Other Guy.
Notice that the SA never mentions the source of the money funding this poorly managed boondoggle. It’s the people’s money, which is being squandered by out of touch management. If the SA is so supportive of continuing the project, why don’t you fund it!
Ripping thru Downtown Honolulu, will have even worse problems than the ones encountering at Dillingham. There will undoubtedly more Pipes Wiring And other Great problems that will Shut down Electric, Water and other items to the Entire Downtown area. This is and “Destruction Derby” Not just ‘View’ will Be forever destroyed. Just like with the Nimitz Hwy.Raised freeway there will be Many Bankruptcies, caused. We ain’t seen nuttin yet!
“The people voted for a 20-mile system, along a carefully studied alignment.”
Perhaps the editors of the Star-Advertiser could remind us all when we voted for this current system and alignment? Especially considering the shenanigans with the Salt Lake route.
In fact, such a vote never took place, and it’s disturbing that the Star-Advertiser would try to re-write history as though it did.
As I’ve said many times before, if you can’t support the Honolulu Rail without resorting to lying, then you can’t support the Honolulu Rail project.
Lee Cataluna probably wrote this editorial.
No, more likely Ukublue or Wiliki wrote this editorial
Kalaheo lies. He’s a hypocrite.
The costs are so out of whack because rail in our small state with a small tax payer base, with little land to develop is simply a very bad idea. Who’s going to pay for this? Hawaii taxpayers who already pay more taxes than in any other state will ultimately be expected to pony up. I’m still waiting to see how the state is going to cover the operational and maintenance costs of rail? Guaranteed there will be more shocks to the cost of rail in the future. So the question really should be if our state can afford rail at all? Just look around the state for infrastructure that isn’t being properly maintained now and you’ll find the answer.
“There have already been shocking discoveries of changes needed, such as drilling far more deeply into the ground for support posts along Dillingham Boulevard”
Honestly, Star Advertiser editors, if you are truly ‘shocked’ by a public works contractor encountering “unexpected soil conditions” that trigger massive change orders from their original low-ball bid, then you must have just stepped off the plane.
I remember the litany of “hard questions” that Tokuda and Luke asked Caldwell for the latest 5 year extension for which he answered none of them. Yet the legislature “en masse” passed the extension. Right then you knew the “fix” was in.
Now with the unknown total costs, unknown O & M, and just the peed off public at this time………what will these politico’s do?
SA asks “The unanswered question: Why are cost estimates so out of whack?” Here’s the obvious answer, the goons, just like their contractor friends working on the project, LOW BALLED ESTIMATES to get the “buy-in” from the public.
Really SA……..
Here is one answer: it happens all the time because of the failure to account for known flaws in human cognition.
See: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy
“It’s HART’s job to deliver something as close as possible to what was envisioned, and promised.”
The promise was from Kapolei to U.H Manoa for $3.8 Billion. Short of that, terminating the guide way at Aloha Stadium and converting to 2 lane reversible for under $4 Billion is BEST option.
“HART hasn’t yet issued the two big contracts to complete rail’s final 10 miles”
The first 10 miles ends at Aloha Stadium. The rail, if kept, should end at Aloha Stadium where there are enough open parking spaces for a major Bus transit center and for many passenger cars (for commuter transfers to/from the buses/rail) during the week day when the stadium parking are unused.
The practical and best 7th option is to convert the rail guide way to a reversible 2-lane HOV(2) Reversible freeway from Kapolei to Aloha Stadium for less than $4 Billion already collected via GET.
The reversible freeway can carry 17,000 commuters per hour (200 express buses and 3800 vehicles per hour on two lanes) versus 3,000 rail commuters per hour. This option deletes rail stations, rail cars, utilities relocation, land/building acquisitions, rail security, rail power plant, rail O&M (100 million per year), etc.
New buses are 80% funded by the Feds and would cost the city about $200,000 per bus or $40 million for 200 new buses. HART plans to purchase 80 rail cars at $1.2 million each for $96 million (Oahu Taxpayer funded).
BUT WE AREN’T BUILDING THE ORIGINAL PLAN. That was supposed to go from UH Manoa past the airport to Kapolei.
Convert the existing steel rail to a private toll reversible highway. Repeal HART. Auction all excess materials and supplies.
….or convert it to magic teleporting pumpkins
excellent anything less will be idiotic as the antis.
So they’re saying “this project is hopelessly FUBAR but let’s continue and finish it as planned”????
Unbelievable.
This often happens, even when it is irrational.
See: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs
Staying with the original plan is becoming too costly. Too many unanticipated issues i.e. Dillingham Blvd and to now having to purchase public streets in Kakaako from private owners. It’s time to rethink and re adjust our public transportation plans.
The costs were only unanticipated by the Mayor, HART and the rail builders. EVERYONE else anticipated the skyrocketing costs.
“Original plan for rail is still the best one” – Sure, the original plan was good, not best, but it was FATALLY FLAWED. The expected COSTS were hidden and now that the COSTS are coming out into the open, it shows that we can’t afford it. The proposed changes may drop some construction costs but will increase O&M costs to taxpayers because ridership will drop substantially – And, why finish a train that very few people will ride?
What plan? We’ve had a criminal conspiracy to get taxpayers on the hook for a multi billion dollar lie fromantic day one. I’ve worked in infrastructure for a long time and I’ve never seen intentional misconduct like this. Yes, intentional. How many lies did the Mayor, HART and minions have to give us to get this far? Don’t tell me they didn’t get ugly reports and cover it up. This should be on the state AGs list of things to prosecute.
I think this calls for the FBI. Maybe when the favorite son has finished his term, we can get some objective attention from Federal law enforcement. This has been, and continues to be a staggering white collar crime perpetrated against the citizens.
You are right. US Attorney where are you in all this? Playing ball with the Obama Administration?
We NEVER voted for a Rail system or the route. All we voted for was steel on steel so please STOP LYING !!
Wake up SA. The City and HART have pretty much admitted that they do not have money to complete this fiasco of a rail project as originally planned.
What is going to wake you guys up, a cold bucket of ice water over your collective heads?
Kick Caldwell out of office in November. Forget about Carlisle. The only sensible answer is to elect Charles Djou for mayor, the only one of the three who will reign in rail costs. If you don’t want to throw any more of your money into this bottomless pit, elect Djou.
Caldwell is doing an outstanding job.
Djou has no executive experience.
So says weewee the self proclaimed senile kupuna of rail.
Your boss cannot handle his responsibilities. Very poor performer.
He’s doing an outstanding job. Open your eyes.
The so-called original plan is of course not really the original plan! It is just a starting point for further development of the Rail system to at least UH and Waikiki which was the original plan. But we all know that is not the end. Stop before Caldwell, HART, etc. commit us to a 100 years or more of Rail construction and steep tax increases. The Rail system will never pay for itself.
Everybody buy from AMAZON whenever possible and DENY Honolulu its GET!