Good poll numbers present temptation for Hanabusa

For Hawaii’s two U.S. House members, March brings in a new time of planning and decision.

Both Rep. Colleen Hana-busa, representing urban Honolulu, and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, representing the neighbor islands and Leeward and Windward Oahu, must soon decide what they want from the 2014 elections.

Both Democrats could run for re-election and would be considered odds-on favorites to win in November. But, if they want to move up, there is much to risk and much to win.

Both would like to be in the U.S. Senate and signaled their ambitions by asking to be appointed as the successor to the late Sen. Daniel K. Inouye. Neither won; instead, Gov. Neil Abercrombie picked his lieutenant governor, Brian Schatz.

Hanabusa makes the decision process more complicated by also mulling over a race against incumbent Democratic Gov. Abercrombie.

Hanabusa last month hired QMark Research in Honolulu to take a statewide telephone poll of 500 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the Democratic primary. Instead of guidance on whether she should run against Abercrombie, or against Schatz, who says he is running for the Senate next year, Hanabusa got green lights in both races.

According to a leaked copy of the poll, which has a margin of error of 4.4 percent, if either race were held today, Hanabusa would beat either man.

Hanabusa would win by 27 percentage points in a primary race against Abercrombie and by 22 percentage points against Schatz if the race were held today, according to the poll.

Hanabusa declined to comment on the poll or its results.

There are no reports of Gabbard taking a poll on next year’s races, but her surging media popularity makes her a possible candidate for the Senate, especially if Hana-busa jumps into the race against Abercrombie.

So the next few months of decisions are critical.

Hanabusa doesn’t have to decide now, but she has to start measuring her campaign operation and what she wants to emphasize.

A Senate race has the advantage of allowing her to keep the campaign funds she has already raised. In last year’s campaign, she raised $1.3 million, but a statewide Senate race would easily cost $3 million or more.

Although she had served as a state senator since 1998, her 2010 U.S. House victory was the first after three unsuccessful congressional campaigns; poll numbers alone do not guarantee victory.

A campaign for governor would highlight some of the political problems Abercrombie experienced when he left his congressional office for Washington Place.

First, Hanabusa would not be able to use her existing campaign cash that had been donated to her federal campaign, so she would have to raise new funds. And statewide races for governor can easily cost $5 million.

Also, Hanabusa like Abercrombie is likely to discover that you can’t run for governor while serving in Congress, and Hawaii is too far away from Washington to commute easily — so she, like Abercrombie, would be forced to resign from the House to run.

Gabbard could also decide to run for governor, but much of her financial support came from Washington-based progressive interest groups such as Emily’s List and VoteVets, who would be interested in a congressional campaign.

If Gabbard and Hanabusa both go for the Senate against Schatz, a three-way race might go to the incumbent.

Finally, if both Hanabusa and Gabbard take off for new challenges, their congressional seats will both be open, meaning that many ambitious legislators and county officeholders will be thinking about a federal race. This could be the start of the much promised, but yet unseen, "new era" in Hawaii politics.

If all this sounds like fantasy politics instead of fantasy football, it is not.

The decisions Hanabusa and Gabbard make will set much of Hawaii’s political landscape for a decade or more.

———

Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.