Gay marriage won’t pack political punch it once did

Gay marriage is still the subject of interest for the state Legislature’s special session, but what of the long-lasting political impact?

Elections have consequences, but do political actions shape elections?

Former President George W. Bush was definitely politically hurt by his response to Hurricane Katrina; there was fallout after former Mayor Mufi Hannemann sent a mailer that compared his wife and now-Gov. Neil Abercrombie’s spouse –but is there political danger in being for or against gay marriage?

Most likely Hawaii’s tolerance for those already in office will shield most of the 76 lawmakers.

American mass media is already saturated with pictures of same-sex marriages; there are network television shows portraying gay relationships; and crowds at the Indianapolis 500 this year cheered when Jim Nabors introduced his partner, Stan Cadwallader.

So there is little political shock value in campaigning against gay marriage.

Conservative Christian groups have organized campaigns against the legislation, but after the votes are taken — spoiler alert — it will pass. But will there be fallout?

How much of a backlash will there be a year from now? Probably not much.

One union and political organizer I talked to, J.N. Musto, executive director of the University of Hawaii Professional Assembly, said he saw little political merits or demerits in the same-sex special session.

"No one will choose their legislator solely on a vote about same-sex," Musto predicted.

An argument had been made that three liberal lawmakers, who opposed the original 1998 state constitutional amendment giving the Legislature the power to define marriage as between a man and woman, were "punished" by voters and voted out of office.

But the three all had other political problems and were not well-known in their districts.

Sen. Clayton Hee, the Judiciary chairman, has been a strong supporter of same-sex marriage and represents portions of the Windward side that include the Laie area with a large Mormon population.

The Mormon Church has strongly opposed same-sex marriage, and Hee’s political stands and positions have been flashpoints in past campaigns, but have not hurt him on Election Day.

On the other side of the issue, will gay political groups be running to the aid of politicians who vote "yes"?

No one will benefit, said Musto, and I agree. The dedication and passion of groups supporting gay marriage will have little definition once same-sex marriage is legal.

Discrimination against gay people will continue to be an issue, but the fire will not be there to organize larger groups to help supportive politicians.

Much of this is because of the timing of the special session. If the Legislature in 2014 took up same-sex marriage, it would have the potential for being a session-long drama. Legislators would have had the ability to trade or hold other bills in return for a vote for or against same-sex bills.

Also voters’ memories would be fresher and it would be easier to lure candidates into races against incumbents.

Now coming a year before the elections, gay marriage in the 2014 election will be old news.

Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.