Hawaii’s count of registered electric vehicles topped 11,000 last month, a mere 1% of the overall passenger vehicle tally. But over the next few decades, if local government clean-energy pledges hold, we’ll eventually see far fewer gas guzzlers. And by 2045, the presence of internal combustion engine vehicles on roads in the islands could be a memory.

Aligning with the state mandate to generate 100% of electricity sales from renewable resources within the next 25 years, Hawaii’s four counties have signed off on a commitment to transform public and private ground transportation to 100% renewable fuel sources within the same time frame.

The 2020 Legislature is sorting through dozens of transportation electrification bills that could spur progress, such as rebate and tax credit proposals as well as goals for state agencies to transition to clean transportation fleets.

Addressing the notion of doubt about EV aspirations here and elsewhere, Hawaiian Electric spokesman Peter Rosegg said: “To anybody who says, ‘It’s a passing fad,’ I’d say: ‘Did you watch the Super Bowl?’”

For auto ads, Super Bowl 54 was the year of the electric vehicle. In previous years, there had never been more than one EV ad. This year, there were four — more than half of the total car ads.

Industry observers say because regulators are increasingly demanding zero-emission vehicles, manufacturers are scrambling to provide them, pouring resources into electric-car development. By the end of this year, most major automakers are slated to be offering at least one EV.

In regards to Hawaii’s EV status, Jeff Mikulina, executive director of Blue Planet Foundation, a Honolulu nonprofit committed to ending the use of fossil fuels, said, “We’re making some progress on electric vehicles, but not nearly where we need to be to reach our targets.”

Blue Planet’s latest energy report card shows steps forward as well as foot-dragging. The top grade, a B+, is for energy efficiency. In the span of a decade, Hawaii has decreased per capita energy use by nearly 25% by increasingly opting for efficiency- focused practices and appliances, such as solar water heaters.

Transportation earned the lowest grade, a D, which flags high concern as it accounts for nearly two-thirds of Hawaii’s fossil-fuel consumption. Blue Planet’s analysis of public records tracked an increase in sales of bigger, less-efficient vehicles. Pickups and SUVs, which accounted for slightly less than half of sales in 2012, now make up 70%.

“In the ground transportation sector, we’re not reducing our carbon emissions. It’s actually increasing. We burned more gasoline in 2019 than we did in 2018,” Mikulina said, noting that gas pump sales increased by 6%, according to state figures.

While EVs using the existing electricity grid to charge still use some fossil fuel (except on Hawaii island), they use that fuel far more effectively than burning fuel directly in a typical gasoline engine. Further, by using stored electrical energy, EVs can take better advantage of intermittent solar, wind and other clean energy resources.

“Most vehicles sit idle over 22 hours of the day, so they can become de facto energy storage devices if their batteries are plugged into the grid when they are not in use,” Mikulina said. With smart grid infrastructure in place, EVs become an “essential component to electricity load and clean energy resource balancing — in addition to providing clean mobility.”

DEBATE ON STATE EV REBATE

Among the EV-oriented bills state lawmakers are weighing is House Bill 2462, which establishes an income tax credit of up to $2,500 per new electric vehicle that costs up to $50,000, starting in July and wrapping up at the end of 2028.

While various federal tax credits are now available, Hawaii currently lacks any tax credit or monetary incentive. However, in an effort to promote consumer adoption, Act 168, which took effect in 2012 and is expected to expire in June, exempts EVs from some county and state parking fees, including at airport lots.

In written testimony on HB 2462, many statements echoed that of the state Energy Office, which reasoned that since EV retail cost has been a barrier to greater adoption, establishing a tax credit would step up the switch and send to the auto marketplace a clear signal of Hawaii’s support.

Jimmy Yau, who recently served as Hawaiian Electric’s interim director of electrification of transportation, said the industry forecasts price-tag parity between EVs and similar gas-fueled vehicles within the next several years. However, he said, “over the course of a lifetime of ownership, an electric vehicle is already cheaper to own than a gas vehicle,” due to fuel savings and maintenance savings.

Because an EV motor has fewer moving parts than an internal combustion engine, it needs less maintenance; and right now it’s 30% less expensive to charge an electric vehicle at home with a standard electric rate than going to the gas station, Yau said.

Blue Planet wants lawmakers to also consider imposing a “feebate,” which would place a larger tax on the sale of vehicles that pollute more per mile than average — and use those funds to provide rebates for lower- cost electric vehicles. The policy idea is revenue neutral, requiring no additional money from the general fund or existing funds.

“We think it’s necessary,” Mikulina said, maintaining that consumers would respond to the “polluter pays” principle.

“It wouldn’t be huge. We calculated that for a Toyota Tacoma (18-21 miles per gallon, and the top-seller in Hawaii for nearly two decades) it would be $640 that you’re paying additionally. What you’re doing is you’re paying for the privilege of polluting. And right now we really don’t have anything that captures that.”

A separate bill based on the feebate concept has stalled at the state Capitol. While it was largely supported in testimony, opponents such as the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association contended that the proposal would touch off “serious disruption in the free market,” possibly penalizing “economically challenged customers” and local auto businesses.

INCENTIVES FOR EV CHARGERS

House Bill 1845 would appropriate additional funds for an electric- vehicle charging system rebate program enacted by state law last year. According to a recent study conducted by Hawaiian Electric, by 2030, some 3,600 public chargers will be needed to meet demand.

While the statewide inventory is rising — including the utility’s installation of fast-charging EV stations in its service territory on Oahu, Maui County and Hawaii island — more needs to be done to assure availability in public areas, Rosegg said. While the popular Nissan Leaf now has a range upwards of 220 miles, “range anxiety” will not altogether disappear.

Another measure addressing charging concerns is Senate Bill 1000, which requires construction of new residential multifamily and commercial buildings with at least 10 and 20 parking stalls, respectively, to make a portion of the stalls EV-ready, with wiring and conduit for charging.

The Honolulu City Council is considering a similar “future-proofing” proposal as part of its Energy Conservation Code update. While there are pocketbook-pinching upfront costs, installing EV infrastructure at the time of construction can cost about 90% less than post-construction retrofit.

For the commuter driving about 30 miles a day, overnight charging can essentially eliminate range concern. But given that charging at home is not a sure-bet option for many residents, such as those in high-rise condos, demand can be expected to grow for access to chargers near workplaces.

In coming decades, Rosegg said, providing effective answers to questions such as “Where can I charge? How efficiently can I charge? And how can I charge with the least aggravation?” will be key to successful EV transition.

Regarding Hawaiian Electric’s push for clean ground transportation, Rosegg said: “We’re not just supporting electrification of transportation because it’s good for our customers, which it is, or because they’re going to save money, which they will. … It’s also because it will help our grid. … We’re sometimes limited by the fact that we haven’t got a use for renewable energy (such as solar) in the middle of the day.”

He added, “When there are enough EVs out there, we’ll be able to use their batteries … as a way to help keep the grid stable.”

And as the utility spreads more electricity across existing infrastructure, costs to Hawaiian Electric customers can decrease.

FOCUSING ON RENTAL CARS

A provision of Senate Bill 996 requires rental car lessors with at least 200 passenger vehicles to include zero-emission vehicles in their fleets. The bill’s current draft requires 10% of a fleet to consist of electric, hybrid or fuel cell vehicles by 2025; followed by 75% in 2040.

Given that the rental car industry operates the state’s largest vehicle fleets — and that the frequent turnover of cars would translate into more zero-emissions vehicles entering the entering the secondary market — the proposal seems to align with other clean energy deadlines.

But in written testimony opposing SB 996, the state Transportation Department said such legislation would require redesign and retrofitting of the $340 million Kahului Airport Consolidated Rent-A-Car facility, which opened in May; and the “Consolidated Rental Car Facility” under construction at Daniel K. Inouye International Airport, which will be fitted with 2,250 parking stalls.

Responding to the potential sticker shock, Melissa Miyashiro, Blue Planet’s managing director of strategy and policy, said, “That just underscores why we need to be thinking about future-proofing our infrastructure. …. These are the kinds of situations we end up with.”

Another measure, House Bill 2699 would task state agencies with converting their own light-weight vehicle fleets within the next 15 years; and with ushering in a 100% clean-energy requirement for all light-duty vehicles statewide by the end of 2045.

In written testimony, David H. Rolf, Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association’s executive director, warned that such a timeline could exacerbate infrastructure challenges and give rise to potentially thorny issues such as whether to force removal of hybrid vehicles and other highly fuel-efficient rides.

The association, Rolf said, “believes the process is an evolution, not a revolution, and that the free market provides the best path to achieving Hawaii’s goals.”

The bill’s supporters, meanwhile, assert that in the interest of tackling climate change threats, the state should support the standing county goals — announced in December 2017 — and set its own for renewable ground transportation.

“There are countries across the world that are committing to phasing out fossil fuel vehicles even sooner,” Miyashiro said, pointing out that France and Britain intend to halt the sale of new gas cars by 2040. She added, “There’s a growing sense of urgency that we need a dramatic shift in the way we move around.”