Abercrombie’s main threat to re-election is his own ego

Gov. Neil Abercrombie’s surprising 50,000-vote victory in 2010 over the better-funded and heavily endorsed Mufi Hannemann boiled down to a simple political dynamic.

Hannemann’s ego-driven style as Hono­lulu mayor left droves of antagonized voters itching to take him down a peg, and Abercrombie sold himself as an acceptable alternative.

Ironically, the same dynamic is at play in next year’s Demo­cratic primary between Abercrombie and state Sen. David Ige, except this time it’s Abercrombie who must beware of antagonized voters.

Abercrombie ran a pitch-perfect campaign in 2010, presenting himself as a mature, unifying leader with the experience of three decades of service in state, city and federal government.

The message played well with younger progressives and even won over many older Demo­crats who had been suspicious of Abercrombie’s rabble-rousing days at the University of Hawaii.

But the good will evaporated soon after the election when the new Abercrombie reverted to the old Abercrombie, picking unnecessarily nasty and often ill-informed fights with seniors, teachers, nurses, environmentalists, the Pro Bowl and the media.

Despite an improving economy that is usually political gold for governors, Abercrombie’s approval in the polls has been below 50 percent throughout his term.

Ige’s strategy appears simply to be there as an alternative for voters looking for one — and hope there are enough of them to reach the critical mass Abercrombie achieved over the favored Hannemann in 2010.

Ige has yet to outline a single major policy difference with Abercrombie, campaigning instead on differences in style.

Borrowing heavily from the themes of former Gov. George Ari­yo­shi, who reportedly urged him to run, Ige is promising quiet competence and a more respectful tone than Abercrombie has set.

In other words, a capable alternative to the blustery Abercrombie who represents the same Demo­cratic values but at lower volume.

Though little-known at this point, Ige has been a solid if unspectacular performer in the Legislature for 28 years — most recently as chairman of the powerful Senate Ways and Means Committee.

A deliberative engineer by training, he knows the state government intimately and poses no threat to labor, environmentalists, gays and other special interests that hold clout in the Demo­cratic Party.

In fact, some of them feel betrayed by Abercrombie and might openly back Ige.

Ige is a long shot in a state that traditionally sticks with its incumbent governors, and Abercrombie has a loaded campaign war chest, many prominent endorsements and an ability to turn on the charm on the campaign trail.

But the governor can’t erase the ill will he created by failing to govern his own ego. The intriguing question of 2014 is whether he’s ticked off too many voters past the point of no return, as Hannemann hadin 2010.

———
Reach David Shapiro at volcanicash@gmail.com or blog.volcanicash.net.