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Below-average hurricane season forecast for Hawaii region

By Sarah Zoellick

LAST UPDATED: 2:54 p.m. HST, May 22, 2013

The Central Pacific Region, which includes the Hawaiian islands, is expected to experience another season of below-average tropical cyclone activity, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center announced today.

The Center, along with the National Weather Service, has predicted there will be a 70 percent chance of the Central Pacific having a below average season, a 25 percent chance of having a normal season, and just a 5 percent chance of having an above normal season.

The season begins June 1 and goes through Nov. 30.

“This means we expect between one and three tropical cyclones this year, and an average season typically sees four to five tropical cyclones throughout the year starting in June all the way through November,” Ray Tanabe, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, announced during a press conference held at the Hawaii State Civil Defense headquarters in Diamond Head Crater.

“Tropical cyclones, as we know, include all strengths of systems and these include tropical depressions, the weakest, tropical storms, and hurricanes,” Tanabe said. “The outlook for a below normal season is based on continued neutral ENSO, or el nino southern oscillation, conditions throughout most of the season. This means we do not expect either la nina or el nino conditions to develop through the course of the season.”

Tanabe encouraged Hawaii residents to prepare in the event that a hurricane does hit the isles.

“The outlook, I’ve always mentioned, is a real general guide to hurricane activity in the pacific, and it doesn’t predict when, where, how or if a hurricane may impact the state of Hawaii,” he said. “As with any season, it’s only going to take one storm, and I hate to sound like a broken record but we could predict 15 storms and they all occur but they all miss Hawaii, or we can predict one to three storms like this year but it’s only going to take one storm.

Disaster preparedness information can be found at and

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