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Warming report sees violent, sicker, poorer future

By Seth Borenstein

AP Science Writer

LAST UPDATED: 06:35 a.m. HST, Nov 03, 2013

WASHINGTON >> Starvation, poverty, flooding, heat waves, droughts, war and disease already lead to human tragedies. They're likely to worsen as the world warms from man-made climate change, a leaked draft of an international scientific report forecasts.

The Nobel Peace Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will issue a report next March on how global warming is already affecting the way people live and what will happen in the future, including a worldwide drop in income. A leaked copy of a draft of the summary of the report appeared online Friday on a climate skeptic's website. Governments will spend the next few months making comments about the draft.

"We've seen a lot of impacts and they've had consequences," Carnegie Institution climate scientist Chris Field, who heads the report, told The Associated Press on Saturday. "And we will see more in the future."

Cities, where most of the world now lives, have the highest vulnerability, as do the globe's poorest people.

"Throughout the 21st century, climate change impacts will slow down economic growth and poverty reduction, further erode food security and trigger new poverty traps, the latter particularly in urban areas and emerging hotspots of hunger," the report says. "Climate change will exacerbate poverty in low- and lower-middle income countries and create new poverty pockets in upper-middle to high-income countries with increasing inequality."

For people living in poverty, the report says, "climate-related hazards constitute an additional burden."

The report says scientists have high confidence especially in what it calls certain "key risks":

--People dying from warming- and sea rise-related flooding, especially in big cities.

--Famine because of temperature and rain changes, especially for poorer nations.

--Farmers going broke because of lack of water.

--Infrastructure failures because of extreme weather.

--Dangerous and deadly heat waves worsening.

--Certain land and marine ecosystems failing.

"Human interface with the climate system is occurring and climate change poses risks for human and natural systems," the 29-page summary says.

None of the harms talked about in the report is solely due to global warming nor is climate change even the No. 1 cause, the scientists say. But a warmer world, with bursts of heavy rain and prolonged drought, will worsen some of these existing effects, they say.

For example, in disease, the report says until about 2050 "climate change will impact human health mainly by exacerbating health problems that already exist" and then it will lead to worse health compared to a future with no futher warming.

If emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of coal, oil and gas continue at current trajectories, "the combination of high temperature and humidity in some areas for parts of the year will compromise normal human activities including growing food or working outdoors," the report says.

Scientists say the global economy may continue to grow, but once the global temperature hits about 3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than now, it could lead to worldwide economic losses between 0.2 and 2.0 percent of income.

One of the more controversial sections of the report involves climate change and war.

"Climate change indirectly increases risks from violent conflict in the form of civil war, inter-group violence and violent protests by exacerbating well-established drivers of these conflicts such as poverty and economic shocks," the report says.

Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann, who wasn't part of the international study team, told the AP that the report's summary confirms what researchers have known for a long time: "Climate change threatens our health, land, food and water security."

The summary went through each continent detailing risks and possible ways that countries can adapt to them.

For North America, the highest risks over the long term are from wildfires, heat waves and flooding. Water -- too much and too little -- and heat are the biggest risks for Europe, South America and Asia, with South America and Asia having to deal with drought-related food shortages. Africa gets those risks and more: starvation, pests and disease. Australia and New Zealand get the unique risk of losing their coral reef ecosystems, and small island nations have to be worried about being inundated by rising seas.

Field said experts paint a dramatic contrast of possible futures, but because countries can lessen some of the harms through reduced fossil fuel emissions and systems to cope with other changes, he said he doesn't find working on the report depressing.

"The reason I'm not depressed is because I see the difference between a world in which we don't do anything and a world in which we try hard to get our arms around the problem," he said.



The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: http://www.ipcc.ch/

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palani wrote:
And now for the other, more realistic, side of the story. Prepare for explosive economic growth and a huge reduction in starvation and poverty:

Global warming could yield $11.6 trillion in increased crop production

on November 2,2013 | 03:14PM
Anonymous wrote:
Democrats are doing their part - there are now more people on welfare handouts than full time wage earners in the USA...the real problem is uncontrolled breeding.
on November 2,2013 | 04:55PM
eoe wrote:
Umm, no.
on November 2,2013 | 05:08PM
kolohepalu wrote:
Nice irrelevant transition.
on November 2,2013 | 08:15PM
Grimbold wrote:
Anonymous is right: Uncontrolled breeding is terrible: Inferior non-self-supporting creatures are having the most offspring, while intelligent society-contributing people pay for the survival of the inferior ones and because they don't want to overpopulate, have less offspring. That will deteriorate humanity's gene pool, because natural selection is being turned into the opposite. As long as that continues it is going down hill for humanity.
on November 3,2013 | 04:54AM
Grimbold wrote:
palani has his head in the clouds. "Prepare for huge misery on the planet because of population growth" he should have posted. Already misery is sitting in traffic, and it will only get worse with each new immigrant. And housing less and less affordable . And house lots and apartments tinier and tinier. And pollution worse every day. And fishing more and more junk. And water resources depleted and overused every day more. And beaches and all natural attractions more overcrowded every day. The more people are crowding the planet the more civility will disappear.
on November 3,2013 | 04:46AM
frontman wrote:
What a bunch of BS.............Temps have not changed and actually cooled in the last FIFTEEN,15 years. This is just another money grab by the democrats. The lies they tell and the evidence the won't show is startling. HEATING IS NOT MAN MADE. A great example is the story of the volcano in Indonesia and our own has put more CO2 into the atmosphere since 1984 than man has from the time he created by GOD.
on November 3,2013 | 06:20AM
frontman wrote:
Warming report sees violent, sicker, poorer future Sounds like a report on obama's first five years in office.
on November 3,2013 | 09:33AM
palani wrote:
Yes, not since the malaise of the Carter presidency have we heard such doom and gloom.

Democrat = Doom Extolling Maltusians Offering Catastrophic Railings Against Truth.

on November 3,2013 | 10:30AM
saywhatyouthink wrote:
They don't know what will happen, this report is fear mongering at it's best.
on November 2,2013 | 03:16PM
aomohoa wrote:
Chicken Little the sky is falling!
on November 2,2013 | 04:18PM
palani wrote:
Apocalypse fatigue!
on November 2,2013 | 06:00PM
HD36 wrote:
The Earth's magnetic force feild is the weakes in thousands of years. The sun is in a solar maximus cycle. The combination is a strong factor of creating weather anomolies.
on November 2,2013 | 11:02PM
thepartyfirst wrote:
Only the Democrat Party uses phony science to push their agenda.
on November 2,2013 | 04:23PM
Leinanij wrote:
Yup, all the Republicans left in Hawai'i have posted here.
on November 2,2013 | 04:30PM
thepartyfirst wrote:
Leinanij: So where do you get your info from?
on November 2,2013 | 07:17PM
kolohepalu wrote:
Ha- they get louder the more their numbers dwindle.
on November 2,2013 | 08:17PM
geo333 wrote:
Yup LeinaniJ there may be a certain amount of truth to what you said about us Republicans, none-the-less, we are God fearing, believe in working hard to get what we want out of life, don't believe in the Democrat's theme song "If it's free, it's me! If I have to pay, NO WAY!" Keep your "Hope and Change" and we will keep our guns and God!
on November 3,2013 | 06:20AM
honopic wrote:
"Guns and God" sums up the priorities of the GOP. Probably in that order. And how did this report from an intergovernmental panel worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize turn into another finger-pointing contest between the two U.S. political parties? Both sides seem to think they are at the center of the universe. Guess what, Dems and Reps - the rest of the world doesn't care about you. They only care about how your squablling and bickering has a negative effect on them.
on November 3,2013 | 07:38AM
RandolphW wrote:
Where is former vice-president Al Gore?
on November 2,2013 | 05:24PM
dontbelieveinmyths wrote:
Laughing all the way to the bank!
on November 2,2013 | 07:56PM
HD36 wrote:
Getting more in touch with his feminine side everyday.
on November 2,2013 | 11:13PM
syhud wrote:
Didn't alarm the majority of the worlds population the first time. Now they come up with this cockamamie warning?
on November 2,2013 | 07:11PM
Skyler wrote:
So we want to build more more mmmmmoooooooorrrreeeee on Oahu because we have an unlimited supply of good, clean water, air and land - especially in the inundation zones. Pffft.
on November 2,2013 | 08:29PM
rigormortis wrote:
looks like you already got yours.
on November 3,2013 | 05:49AM
thepartyfirst wrote:
Article in Forbes Magazine about Al Gore's claim North Pole could be ice free will not post by SA.
on November 2,2013 | 09:44PM
HD36 wrote:
Studies funded by Al Gore and friends.
on November 2,2013 | 11:12PM
HD36 wrote:
Have they ever considered that the earth's magnetic feild, which keeps alot of solar radiation from hitting the earth, is the weakest its been in thousands of years? Have they considered we're in a solar maximus cycle where M class flares off the charts are hurling trillions of radiactive particles towards Earth? Have they considered that the ocean gives off more than 70% of the CO2 in the atmoshpere and is increasing because the friction between the mantle and the crust has caused a .3 degree rise in centigrade? Nobel bell prize means nothing. Paul Krugman got one of those.
on November 2,2013 | 11:20PM
frontman wrote:
What a bunch of BS.............Temps have not changed and actually cooled in the last FIFTEEN,15 years. This is just another money grab by the democrats. The lies they tell and the evidence the won't show is startling. HEATING IS NOT MAN MADE. A great example is the story of the volcano in Indonesia and our own has put more CO2 into the atmosphere since 1984 than man has from the time he created by GOD.
on November 3,2013 | 06:20AM
HD36 wrote:
Very true. The magnetic feild around the earth is the weakest in thousands of years. It acts like a sheild, absorbing alot of the sun's radiation. The sun meanwhile is in a solar maximus cycle. M class flares have been recorded recently that were off the charts. The ocean's also emit more than 60% of the CO2 on earth.
on November 3,2013 | 07:30AM
PMINZ wrote:
Well the Earth weather gets worse especially when "HAARP" and the other countries similar weather control groups are constantly battling to change the Earth's weather patterns. The millions of air heating devices (we call High heat Street lights About 300 deg each) heat every large city and creating their own weather patterns. The " Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" has their head in the sand and ignores real causes. Plus the Earths People pollution, is NOT causing planet heating on MARS, Jupiter Neptune, ETC. The Human pollution is only a manini portion of the problem. Now we have a POWER Hungry President that just gave Himself HUGE powers to oversee the population. Watch He will want to change the 2 term limit of being President to Extend his Term.
on November 3,2013 | 08:36AM
frontman wrote:
Warming report sees violent, sicker, poorer future Sounds like a report on obama's first fie years in office.
on November 3,2013 | 09:32AM
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