Hurricane Forecast: ‘It only takes one’

Following a busy 2014 season that saw three hurricanes threaten the islands, forecasters Tuesday predicted a slight uptick in activity with five to eight "tropical cyclones" expected this season in the Central Pacific.

Last year, forecasters predicted four to seven tropical cyclones — the term that encompasses tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes. Three tropical cyclones developed into hurricanes Julio, Iselle and Ana and threatened the islands from August to October before breaking apart.

Even though Iselle was downgraded to a tropical storm when it hit Hawaii island in August, it still damaged 250 homes there, destroying 11 of them, and cut off thousands of residents from water and electricity for days and sometimes longer.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but August is by far the busiest month, especially in an El Nino year when ocean waters run warmer and more and stronger tropical cyclones develop.

Since 1970, the Central Pacific has seen 78 tropical cyclones develop in August, compared to 46 in July and 38 in September, said Tom Evans, acting director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

During El Nino years, storms tend to move west from the Eastern Pacific into the Central Pacific, leading to above-normal activity.

El Nino conditions are also expected to exacerbate dry and drought conditions on leeward areas of Kauai, Oahu and Hawaii island, said Kevin Kodama, senior service hydrologist with the National Weather Service.

The islands are coming off of the "ninth driest wet season in 30 years," Kodama said.

"The existing drought should be expected to worsen or even spread," he said.

Gov. David Ige on Tuesday proclaimed May 24-30 as hurricane preparedness week to encourage residents to stock up on supplies and make homes and other buildings hurricane-resistant.

"The best we can do as a community is to be prepared," Ige said. "We can never be overprepared."

Evans showed reporters his own hurricane preparedness kit, which he said should include a gallon of water per day for every person and pet, canned food, medications, a flashlight with extra batteries, weather radio, cash and important documents, and, of course, plenty of toilet paper.

He encouraged residents not to wait until the next threat from a tropical cyclone to stock up on supplies, which often become scarce in the hours before an island gets hit.

Although no hurricane-force winds struck the islands last hurricane season, Evans said the damage from Iselle was still "devastating" for parts of Hawaii island’s Puna District.

He added: "It could have been a lot worse. … But it only takes one to be devastating."

PAST STORMS Since 1970, 162 tropical cyclones have formed in the Central Pacific. Here is the monthly breakdown:

JULY: 46
AUGUST: 78
SEPTEMBER: 38