The Boise State decision is worth keeping an eye on

University of Hawaii football fans have taken a short break from asking me what I think of Norm Chow (answer: he’s undefeated). The past few days the queries have been about Boise State.

The Broncos find themselves in a tough spot, in limbo between leagues. They had some pretty good cards, but it looks like they played them too aggressively in the crazy, high-stakes game of conference realignment.

In their haste to attain a seat at the grown-ups table, BSU chose a chair that could be pulled out from under it at any time.

Heading East was a big gamble on the Boise administration’s part … I mean, anyone who knows the pecking order of the major conferences knows the Big East is the Big Least, except for a few weeks in late winter and early spring when it cashes in on basketball.

A four-team national championship football playoff is imminent. Let’s see … SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC again … somehow, "Big East" doesn’t come to mind when thinking "four-team national playoff." Maybe it has something to do with its top team in last year’s final BCS standings, West Virginia, checking in at No. 23.

That’s part of why Boise State hasn’t made its divorce from the Mountain West official yet. It also wants to see if the MWC is going to get an automatic qualifier for the BCS bowl games for the last two years before the playoff becomes reality.

Boise State has until July 1 to officially go through with its plan to leave the MWC after this year and join the Big East and pay only its $2.5 million fee to exit. If it reverses course and remains in the Mountain West, it owes the Big East $5 million. If Boise State waits until July to double-reverse on the Big East it is doubled to $10 million.

And if it leaves after this week? The MWC exit fee is at least doubled, and here’s where the automatic qualifier comes into play again: If the Mountain West gets an AQ for 2012 and Boise wins the conference and the BCS bid, it would forfeit the millions from that, plus a huge penalty.

The AQ issue may or may not be settled this week. If the Broncos wait to jump ship until after this week, they could put themselves in the crazy position of losing significant money if they win on the football field.

The Big East is a football-only deal, so the Broncos need a conference to park their so-called Olympic sports. The Big West and WAC are possibilities.

The former requires a vote, and I guess the latter would if there’s anyone left to do so. Boise State has been courting the Big West, even offering up the dreaded travel subsidies.

It appears to be in Hawaii’s best interest to vote ‘no’ on Boise State to the Big West if ‘no’ means the Broncos are forced to remain in the Mountain West. Better to continue the football rivalry than have their lousy basketball team (13-17 overall, 3-11 in the Mountain West) lower the Rainbow Warriors’ RPI.

Maybe the Broncos will improve in the sports other than football. Does it matter? Conference realignment has become an endeavor where anything goes, and I’m pretty sure Hawaii doesn’t owe Boise State any favors since the Broncos didn’t support UH to the Mountain West. But maybe there is a magic number with a dollar sign in front of it that makes sense for UH. I kind of doubt it though.

On Saturday, a person who follows this very closely in Boise put the odds at 10 percent that the Broncos end up staying in the Mountain West. Keep in mind that’s up from nearly zero until recently.

The bottom-line tends to move around in conference alignment issues, a lot. But at this moment for UH fans it’s simple: You want to be playing Boise State in the Mountain West, not the Big West.

Reach Star-Advertiser sports columnist Dave Reardon at dreardon@staradvertiser.com or 529-4783.