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EditorialOn Politics

Party demographics harder to predict

Who is a Democrat and who is a Republican in Hawaii?

How do we tell them apart?

For the first two years of her term in office, Gov. Linda Lingle was being pecked to death by her party’s conservative factions who called her a RINO (Republican in Name Only) because of her moderate stance.

She had lobbied for keeping anti-abortion planks out of the state GOP platform; she actually had the local leader of the gay GOP group Log Cabin Republicans address the state convention on Maui; and sin of sins, she initially encouraged raising taxes for mass transit.

Since then Lingle has gotten right with the GOP, but there are questions of where are the Democrats. Former Mayor Mufi Hannemann, for instance, has his own troubles with an Internet whisper campaign that he is a DINO (Democrat in Name Only) resurfacing this week and a Hawaii Sierra Club leader criticizing Hannemann for encouraging hotel development on Oahu’s rural North Shore.

I asked Ward Research, which just completed a 600-voter state survey for the Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now, what would be the typical demographic characteristics of Democratic and Republican voters. While noting that the results are broad generalizations, Ward Research President Rebecca Ward had some interesting suggestions.

Typically, a Democratic voter is a Japanese-American woman, about 55 years of age, with annual household income of around $70,000 living in the 2nd Congressional District. A Republican is generally a Caucasian man of about 50 years of age, living on Oahu, with annual household income of about $80,000.

A Democratic campaign consultant said, "Republicans are harder to stereotype. Just because you go to private school, have a high income, do not belong to any union, belong to a church, even a conservative church, doesn’t mean that you are a Republican.

"However, if you start your day by tuning in to Glenn Beck’s radio show, if you think that Sarah Palin ‘has a lot of good ideas,’ then you might be a Republican."

University of Hawaii political scientist Neal Milner adds that this year there has been significant voter movement as independents decide to vote for Republicans.

There is an interesting factor in these elections, said the Democratic consultant: Party choice may reflect how connected and effective people feel.

"People who feel they have a stake in the game and think they are going to succeed are likely to be Democrats. Those who feel they aren’t going to make a difference, the country is going to hell and we can’t stop it, are likely to be Republicans."

That "fed-up factor" vote may be the most easy to explain, but if it wins the election, it will not be a lasting coalition.

Richard Borreca writes on politics every Tuesday, Friday and Sunday. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com

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