The median price rose for Oahu single-family homes in November, ending a string of six consecutive months of declines over the same months last year. But the gain was slight, and won’t likely correct the small but negative price move for the full year even with one month of sales to go.
Data released Wednesday by the Honolulu Board of Realtors showed that the median price of Oahu single-family homes sold last month was $580,000, up 1 percent from $574,500 a year earlier.
The number of sales also eked out a gain of 1.2 percent. There were 251 sales last month compared with 248 a year earlier.
For the first 11 months of the year, single-family home sales were down 1.8 percent and the median price was down 3.4 percent. Since January, the median price was down in every month except for November and April compared with the same months last year.
In Oahu’s condominium market, sales rose 5.4 percent to 333 units in November from 316 a year earlier. The median price declined 5.4 percent to $295,000 from $312,000.
Year-to-date condo sales were up 2 percent, and the median price was down 1.5 percent.
Broad weakness this year in Hawaii’s biggest housing market has been influenced by the state’s uneven and rocky economic recovery where residents continue to suffer pay decreases and job losses. Foreclosure inventory pegged at about 10 percent of the market by research firm Clear Capital also has affected home prices despite a relatively tight overall inventory and low interest rates.
"Everything is kind of flat-lined right now," said Mike Gallagher, owner of Kailua-based Mike Gallagher Real Estate Inc. "We’re just in a holding pattern, and as far as I’m concerned it’s not a bad thing. We’re getting by."
But Gallagher, a longtime Hawaii real estate agent who formed his own brokerage firm in August, predicts that prices won’t rebound in the next two years. Instead, he fears there could be more price decreases.
Local economist Paul Brewbaker of TZ Economics is forecasting a general sideways movement in prices, persisting for a few years until robust economic growth returns.
The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization has a more favorable view. The organization released a report last month predicting that the median sale price for Oahu single-family homes will rise 1.5 percent next year followed by an 8.5 percent gain in 2013.
UHERO projects that the median condo sale price will be flat next year, then rise 3.5 percent in 2013.
A median price decline in the single-family home market this year would follow a 2010 rebound of 3.5 percent that reversed two years of declines totaling 10 percent.
The condo market median price was unchanged last year, which was an improvement from a 6.2 percent decrease the year before.