Hawaii inmates considered at high risk for committing new offenses increasingly have been released from prison without any supervision — a trend that experts say is not only out of sync with national practices, but increases the safety risk to the public.

Though the number of such cases has been relatively small, given a state prison population of roughly 6,000, it increased dramatically over the past five years, according to a new study on Hawaii’s criminal justice system.

In fiscal year 2006, only 15 high-risk inmates "maxed out" — completed their full sentences and left prison without any continuing oversight — according to data from the Council of State Governments Justice Center.

But by 2011 the number surged to 101, a nearly sevenfold jump, reflecting a dramatic increase in maxed-out cases involving inmates of all risk levels, the center’s analysts found. The increases happened even though the overall prison population declined slightly over the five years.

The 2011 figure did not include parole violators, including 27 high-risk ones, who maxed out that year. That means the number of high-risk Hawaii inmates who completed their terms and were released without any transition actually was greater: 128.

"This is truly a public safety risk," said Meda Chesney-Lind, a University of Hawaii at Manoa women’s studies professor and criminology expert. "The very people who you want to have a gradual transition into the community with supervision are now completely without that. That’s a real bad sign."

The Justice Center’s findings were part of a broader study that the New York nonprofit organization did at the state’s request over the past six months. The center was asked to look for ways to make Hawaii’s criminal justice system more efficient and effective without compromising public safety. Among other things, the study identified inefficiences that have contributed to Hawaii’s severe prison overcrowding.

The analysts are scheduled to deliver their final recommendations next month.

To underscore the value of post-prison monitoring, the study noted that only 28 percent of Hawaii inmates who were paroled with supervision in 2008 were rearrested within three years.

By contrast, 53 percent who maxed out that year, receiving no monitoring, were rearrested within three years, according to the study.

"That’s when a lot of inmates are most vulnerable," said Bert Matsuoka, who was confirmed as chairman of the Hawaii Paroling Authority in May.

No one can predict with any certainty which prisoners released back into the community will commit new crimes or parole violations, though state-of-the-art risk assessments are described as nearly 80 percent effective.

Some inmates deemed low risk or who get supervision from probation or parole officers can go on to commit heinous crimes.

But when convicts are required to regularly report to an officer or get some type of treatment or assistance as they transition to a life of freedom, the professionals who provide such services typically are able to spot red flags, such as a renewed drug habit, and can act to counter that, experts who study such matters say.

Robert Coombs, senior policy analyst with the Justice Center, said that although the number of Hawaii’s high-risk inmates who max out has been relatively low, they are among the released prisoners most likely to commit new offenses.

When resources are tight, that’s the population that should be targeted for oversight, possibly preventing some future crimes from happening, he said.

The same logic applies to parole violators who max out, Coombs added. Because they committed a new crime or parole violation that prompted their return to prison, those inmates already have demonstrated that they have difficulty adjusting to life on the outside. "That’s the group you really want to supervise," he said.

Daniel Gluck, senior staff attorney for the ACLU of Hawaii, underscored the public safety risk. "Hawaii has long misspent valuable tax dollars on incarceration policies that make the community less safe, and a max-out policy only aggravates this problem," he said.

Jodie Maesaka-Hirata, director of the Department of Public Safety, which runs the prisons, attributed the surge in max-out cases largely to the practices of the past parole board and some judges in setting minimum sentences much closer to or at the maximum periods allowed by law.

If inmates facing a maximum of 10 years, for instance, were given nine-year minimums instead of five, some would decide to serve the extra year so they don’t have to deal with any monitoring or programming requirements upon release or while in prison, Maesaka-Hirata said.

"There’s no incentive to participate in programs to be released early," she said.

Coombs said it is too soon to tell whether the max-out trend is changing under the new board, but policies that contributed to that trend still are in place.

Matsuoka, the new paroling chairman, said the board considers each case individually and examines evidence and testimony to set minimum terms. "It’s based on the best information we have."

Charlene Iboshi, prosecuting attorney for Hawaii County, said she is aware of many inmates who decide to max out.

"Right now the defendants are driving a lot of this," she said. "They’re just saying they’ll do the time."

But like Chesney-Lind, Coombs and others, Iboshi agreed that providing inmates with supervision upon release would benefit them and the public.

"There’s no doubt about it. To have successful re-integration into the community, you have to have a gradual transition," Iboshi said.

North Carolina is among the states that have taken steps to increase post-prison supervision.

Based on recommendations made by the Justice Center, North Carolina recently implemented a new law that, among other things, requires all felons to be monitored at least nine months after release from prison. They are released at least nine months early to allow for the mandated monitoring.

Before the change, only felons who committed the most serious offenses were monitored. That left about 15,000 felons a year leaving prison without any supervision, according to Keith Acree, spokesman for the state’s Department of Correction.

The law was passed with bipartisan support. The thinking was that inmates "have a much better chance of not coming back to prison again" if they get supervision, Acree said.

Other states have adjusted their sentencing laws to incorporate post-prison monitoring into sentences.

Given the complexities behind Hawaii’s max-out trend, Iboshi questioned whether mandating a solution would be effective. "I’m not one for legislating fixes," she said.