The state Council on Revenues on Thursday scaled back its forecast for state revenue growth this fiscal year, which will reduce an anticipated surplus and require Gov. Neil Abercrombie to adjust his budget and financial plan.

The council projected 11.5 percent revenue growth for the fiscal year that ends in June, down from the 14.5 percent growth the panel had predicted in September. The lower forecast means an estimated $130 million loss for the state this fiscal year and a $138 million drop for the next.

The council left unchanged its 6.5 percent growth forecast for fiscal year 2013, which begins July 1.

Abercrombie’s supplemental budget and six-year financial plan were based on the rosier forecast, so budget analysts will have to recalculate. But the governor and state House and Senate leaders, who will open the new session of the state Legislature later this month, remain optimistic about the budget after several years of potential deficits tied to the recession.

"We will work with the Legislature as the supplemental budget session begins so that we continue to move forward on a positive track," Abercrombie said in a statement. "We’ll await the next council projection as the legislative session proceeds."

The Abercrombie administration had been anticipating healthy surpluses at the close of the next two fiscal years — $199 million after this fiscal year and $234 million after fiscal year 2013 — so budget analysts believe the state can withstand and maneuver through the initial revenue loss.

However, Kalbert Young, the state’s budget director, said the administration will have to make adjustments to prevent significant deficits in the following four years covered by the financial plan.

Young said the administration is evaluating what steps to take. He said options include asking lawmakers to extend the diversion of portions of a rental car surcharge into the general fund beyond this fiscal year and changing the timetable for replenishing the state’s rainy day and hurricane relief funds.

Abercrombie on Thursday repeated his goal of replenishing the emergency funds, which were drained to get through the last fiscal year, but several lawmakers said there would likely be a debate over the timing.

"Even if he didn’t lose the 3 percentage points — the $130 million — it would still be an item of discussion because it’s an appropriation, it’s a choice that has to be made against all other needs," said state Rep. Marcus Oshiro (D, Wahiawa), chairman of the House Finance Committee.

Abercrombie has called for a modest increase in state spending next fiscal year — about $188 million, including money for public education and social services — a request lawmakers will review more carefully given the new forecast. The governor’s overall budget draft is $11.1 billion.

State Sen. David Ige (D, Aiea-Pearl City), chairman of the Senate Ways and Means Committee, said the lower forecast would require adjustments but would likely not involve new spending cuts for state programs. He said the state is on more solid financial footing than during the past few years.

"It’s really more looking at where you spend and where you don’t spend," he said.

Richard Kahle, chairman of the Council on Revenues, said the downgraded forecast for this fiscal year was mostly the result of a change in procedure at the state Department of Taxation. The department has been more aggressive at cashing tax payments when they arrive, so previous assumptions about revenue flow at the end of the last fiscal year have changed, which influenced year-over-year projections about growth.

While some on the council wanted the forecast to be lower, citing doubts in the business community about the extent of economic recovery, a majority agreed on 11.5 percent growth. The council will issue its next forecast in early March.

"It’s a consensus opinion, and we do the best we can," Kahle said.

Economists and tax policy analysts are not sure the state will realize the revenue projected from the tax changes used by the Legislature last session to balance the budget, particularly the temporary suspension of general excise tax exemptions on business activities such as subcontracting. The council has taken an extremely conservative approach to that portion of the revenue forecast.

Lowell Kalapa, president of the Tax Foundation of Hawaii, described the revenue estimates on suspending the tax exemptions — about $200 million a year — as "very, very soft." He said it is a reflection of a lack of institutional memory at the Legislature and the Department of Taxation.