Despite extensive election-year advertising and campaigning to convince the public of the benefits of the $5.26 billion Honolulu rail project, only 44 percent of Oahu residents believe work on it should continue, according to a new Hawaii Poll.
Another 50 percent of Oahu voters do not believe work should continue on the project, and 5 percent declined to answer or were undecided, the poll found.
Overall, support for rail has hardly budged since February, when a Hawaii Poll showed support had slipped to less than a majority as the city finalized plans and began construction on the system planned to run from East Kapolei to Ala Moana Center.
Even this year’s heated mayoral campaign, which has focused mostly on rail, has done little to change voters’ attitudes in the last five months, the polling data show.
Former Gov. Ben Cayetano is running for the office and says he intends to stop the project if elected. Cayetano’s campaign emphasizes the drawbacks of the project, arguing the 20-mile elevated rail line will be ugly and too expensive. Mayor Peter Carlisle and former city Managing Director Kirk Caldwell are both campaigning for mayor on platforms that support rail, arguing it is needed to ease congestion on Oahu roads and give residents an alternative to driving.
The rail question was asked of 509 very likely Oahu voters in the upcoming primary. The poll was conducted July 12-21 by Ward Research Inc. of Honolulu for the Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now, and has a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.
The poll found that efforts to promote rail have won over some additional middle-income voters and some who describe themselves as independents.
But even with those gains, 57 percent of independent voters still say they do not believe work on the project should continue, and only a slim 51 percent majority of middle-income voters want to continue with the project.
Meanwhile, support for rail eroded among more affluent voters, who make more than $100,000 a year, the poll data show.
Waimanalo resident Rebecca French, 49, said she supports rail, and said history shows there will always be naysayers complaining about cost or other issues when communities undertake major public works projects like rail.
"The Golden Gate Bridge or the New York subway system, it really made those cities," French said. "They went ahead with those projects anyway, and they’re so much better off."
"It costs a lot of money and there’s lot of whining about it, but in the long run it makes for a better city," she said.
But downtown resident Patrick Kamakawiwoole, 45, said he doesn’t believe rail projects in other cities have accomplished their goals. Kamakawiwoole said he doubts the Honolulu project will have as many riders as the city is projecting, and said he doesn’t believe rail will do much to ease traffic congestion.
"The way I see Hawaii and the local population is that people, if they have the opportunity, they’re going to drive," he said.
Daniel Grabauskas, executive director of the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation, said he has never known a major public works project that did not stir up some controversy.
He said HART has been trying to answer public concerns by cutting costs, offering more information to the public, adjusting the design of the rail stations and adding seats on the trains so fewer passengers will have to stand.
"It’s up to the voters whether they believe that fundamentally we’ve been doing the right thing," he said. "The bottom line and what I think is most important is that traffic is only getting worse, and we have already started building the system."
Rail is the largest public works project in Hawaii history, and the city has already spent more than $500 million since 2006 on planning, design, buying property and some construction work for the system.
The city has also awarded more than $2 billion in contracts to companies for activities such as building the first 10 miles of elevated guideway, producing rail cars and operating the rail system.
Longtime rail opponent Cliff Slater said considering the recent barrage of pro-rail advertising, it is surprising more people have not thrown their support behind the project.
Slater said he believes support for rail erodes as people realize that traffic congestion will increase even after the city spends billions of dollars on it.
He faulted Honolulu’s major media outlets for failing to make it clear to the public that Oahu’s roads inevitably will become more congested as the city grows.
That point has been the subject of much sparring between the pro- and anti-rail factions.
City officials acknowledge traffic congestion will increase in the years ahead even with a rail system, but contend traffic would be even worse without rail.
The new poll data demonstrate continuing, widespread skepticism about the city’s estimates of the final cost of the project.
HART calculates the cost at $5.26 billion, including $645 million in "contingency" funds that city officials budgeted to cover unexpected overruns or change orders during design and construction.
The Hawaii poll shows that even rail supporters doubt that will be enough money to get the job done.
Eighty-four percent strongly agree or somewhat agree with the statement that "The rail project will end up costing a lot more than is currently estimated."
Among the people who support rail, 74 percent somewhat agreed or strongly agreed with that statement. As for the people who do not support rail, 93 percent agreed rail will cost much more than the current estimates.
Connie Lau of the pro-rail organization Move Oahu Forward said she and her co-chairman, Richard Dahl, have carefully reviewed the rail financial plan and concluded it is sound. In fact, the latest financial plan predicts there will be a cash surplus of $193 million, she said.
"The goal of Move Oahu Forward is to help educate the public on the facts regarding rail," she said. "And what the poll shows is that it is even more important than ever that we continue our efforts to communicate the strength of the financial plan."
The poll results show rail supporters believe the train will make a noticeable difference in traffic congestion and will also provide a substantial boost to the local economy. Among those who support the project, 82 percent somewhat agreed or strongly agreed with both of those statements.
Among rail opponents, however, only 9 percent believe the project will cause a noticeable reduction in traffic, and only 10 percent believe the economic benefits would make the project worthwhile.
Rail opponents strongly support improvements to TheBus system instead of rail, which is a key theme in the mayoral race.
Cayetano has argued the city should scrap rail and instead move forward with a less expensive bus rapid transit project that would use dedicated bus lanes to move passengers around.
The poll shows that among rail opponents, 92 percent agreed strongly or somewhat agreed that an enhanced bus system would be a better choice than rail.
Improving city bus service also has support among rail proponents. In fact, 22 percent of supporters agreed strongly or somewhat agreed that an enhanced bus system would be a better choice than rail.
