Call it the Abercrombie Conundrum: How does someone amass $2.1 million in campaign donations while earning thumbs down from a majority of the voters?
The veteran Democrat is moving into the second half of his first term as governor with the solid disapproval of 51 percent of voters, according to the new Hawaii Poll, taken by Ward Research for the Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now.
A total of 756 voters were surveyed. The poll has a margin of error of 3.6 percent.
Abercrombie’s smallest disapproval rating is 43 percent, coming from those who usually vote Democratic. But he has also earned the hostility of union voters, as 59 percent say he hasn’t done a good job.
Last year, a mainland-based polling firm, Public Policy Polling, had Abercrombie as the least-liked governor in the nation with a 56 percent disapproval rating, and only 30 percent of those surveyed approving of Abercrombie’s leadership.
The new poll reports that just 43 percent approve of Abercrombie’s job performance.
As the approval numbers are inching up, the telling number is that today, Abercrombie is where former Gov. Linda Lingle was at the depths of her unpopularity — both leaders could show 51 percent disapproval ratings.
Looking ahead, the interesting fact is not that Abercrombie — who has battled the unions, rebuffed media requests for more open government and upset both retirees and environmental- ists — is unpopular; it is that he gets such big political donations.
Abercrombie had a total of $2.1 million in collections since winning the governorship. He has spent more than $850,000, either paying off old campaign bills, or staging fundraisers or making political contributions. The latest campaign report has Abercrombie with cash on hand of $1.3 million.
In comparison, three years into her first term, Lingle had collected $2.4 million. She also was packing a 62 percent approval rating.
If Abercrombie remains unpopular, he also remains in power and able to raise significant amounts of money.
ALTHOUGH he turned 74 in June, Abercrombie has given no indication that he won’t run for a second term. The money raised in the last two years is listed as being for the 2014 governor’s campaign.
Union leaders privately have said they would like to put up a candidate against Abercrombie in two years, but have been frustrated in their attempts at recruiting someone with the ability to win against an incumbent.
Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz has been a big team player and is not considered a likely opponent.
Even if there was an opening for Schatz, Hawaii’s political history is filled with the failed campaigns of lieutenant governors opposing the top guy.
Republican James Kealoha couldn’t beat Gov. William Quinn in 1962; Tom Gill ran unsuccessfully against Gov. John A. Burns in 1970; and Jean Sadako King could not beat Gov. George Ariyoshi in 1982.
Running a statewide race is complicated and expensive. Getting the statewide exposure is one thing, but then raising the millions needed to finance the campaign is difficult. Collecting enough money to run against an incumbent governor from the same party is almost impossible.
Add to that Hawaii’s voter loyalty to incumbents and it is easy to see why even though a majority of voters disapprove of Abercrombie’s job performance, there is no one waiting to take his place.
Abercrombie’s supporters understand that their candidate is not winning any popularity contests, but understand that a big bank account builds the strong castle walls.
Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.
