And then there were two.
Former Gov. Ben Cayetano has led the anti-rail charge that will oust incumbent Mayor Peter Carlisle in five months. Now, as Cayetano and former acting Mayor Kirk Caldwell go head-to-head for the mayor’s office in November’s general election, both will need to sharpen their messages on how to solve traffic gridlock, certainly, but also on daily-life problems such as potholes, pipes and property taxes.
Expect "the little guy" to emerge as the focal point as the two refine their rail narratives: Cayetano, the anti-rail candidate, will build on his populist call for people to take back power in government; Caldwell needs to turn up the volume on the myriad ways that rail will benefit you and me, not the power players who stand to gain financially.
As far as it’s gotten Cayetano — he received 44.8 percent of Saturday’s primary election vote against Caldwell’s 29.5 percent and Carlisle’s 25.1 percent — it’s not enough for him to be just the anti-rail candidate. There are a host of issues besides rail in this race, and both Caldwell and Cayetano must provide voters with real strategies on how these will be tackled.
Old water pipes. Sewage treatment and the federal mandate for upgrades. Roads and potholes. Garbage pick-up and landfill capacity. Parks and recreation. Homelessness. Planning for future growth.
Caldwell is better versed in these issues, having been immersed in them as the city’s former managing director. Even Cayetano, who acknowledged little interest in the mayor’s job until the anti-rail urge became too strong, on Saturday said he’ll need to make potholes, pipes and other infrastructure priorities if he hopes to succeed.
In the 10 weeks ahead, both candidates will need to articulate their visions for near-term actions, and for tilling the direction of Oahu’s future. Who can build the better city, and how will he do it?
Undoubtedly, rail looms large over the entire landscape.
A simple tally of Saturday’s numbers shows that the majority of voters went pro-rail — Caldwell and Carlisle combined for 54.6 percent — but it’s too simplistic to rely on such solidarity to sweep Caldwell into office and keep rail going. Cayetano already is casting doubt there, saying Caldwell’s pro-labor base has plateaued while the independent and Republican voters are largely his to gain in the general.
Though we disagree with Cayetano’s anti-rail position, his campaign has shrewdly tapped into a vein of people empowerment. Never mind that Cayetano, a two-term former governor and veteran legislator, is at the pinnacle of Hawaii’s power elite; he has managed to mold his campaign into "the little guy" versus the power-broker establishment. Conversely, what’s been sorely lacking from the pro-rail side is a real-people boosterism of the transit project, grown organically from the communities that believe in the many benefits of rail. Recent slick ads, particularly the attack ones, bankrolled by those who stand to gain economically from rail, only feed into a prevailing suspicion of "gravy train" contracts and top-down proclamations. These are seriously overshadowing the positives of rail.
Caldwell is now the project’s standard-bearer, so must find a way to tamp fears and for rail to "sell" itself all over again — from the ground up. He also must raise his own name recognition and public appeal, no small order next to the feisty Cayetano.
The timing could not be more precarious, with $1.55 billion of federal rail funds in the balance. That decision is expected around November, and the result of the Nov. 6 election could make or break approval. The loss of $1.55 billion would be monumental — and there’s little hope that Hawaii will again see that kind of financial support for any traffic solution.
Carlisle vowed Saturday to keep moving forward on rail construction in his final months as mayor. In a gracious show of solidarity, he appeared at Caldwell headquarters to concede, and said he would ask Caldwell to accompany him to Washington, D.C., to convince federal transit officials about Honolulu’s commitment to rail. That can’t hurt. But the real convincing must be done here at home: to resonate with a majority of voters that rail, done right, holds benefits for us all, individually and as a city.