Still not ready for big disaster

There is no doubt that Hawaii has made strides toward better emergency preparedness in the two decades since Hurricane Iniki devastated Kauai and caused severe damage statewide. That’s the good news. The more cautionary tale is that the next significant storm to strike the islands very well may stretch our coping capacity to the limit.

That’s because, for starters, the state still hasn’t done enough to prepare enough shelters for its current population and anticipated visitor count. On Kauai, the target zone of Hawaii’s last two major hurricanes, there are 19,300 structures that are certified to withstand gale-force winds, according to the American Red Cross. But that’s insufficient to accommodate the Garden Island’s 67,500 residents and the 20,000 additional people who, on average, are visiting.

And although Oahu has dodged the proverbial bullet in natural disasters, from Hurricane Iwa in 1982 on, the prospect of a bull’s-eye strike on this island is terrifying to consider. State and county civil defense authorities should take the occasion of this 20th anniversary of Iniki to redouble efforts to gear up for the worst-case scenario.

Some events aimed at improving awareness and preparedness are scheduled for the coming weeks. For Oahu, a full list appears on the city Department of Emergency Management site (www1.honolulu.gov/dem/demspecialeventscalendar.htm).

And on Kauai, Mayor Bernard Carvalho Jr. pledges to investigate placing trailer-size emergency containers on the island’s North Shore. They would be supplied with cots, blankets and emergency provisions — a wise fallback option as more permanent shelter accommodations are sought. Such help will be essential in the event that Hana­lei Bridge is flooded, which happened most recently during rainstorms in March.

Scientists are not of one mind about whether or not global climate change is increasing hurricane ferocity over the long term. But even one who is somewhat skeptical — Thomas Knutson of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — calls the odds "better than even" that human-induced global warming over the next century "will lead to an increase in the numbers of very intense hurricanes in some basins."

Does that include Hawaii? Who can say? But assuming the best outcome is anything but a wise course for the state’s leaders.

Fortunately, science weighs in favor of communities in other ways. Specifically, the technology for tracking tropical cyclones over the vast expanses of ocean has improved dramatically, report the experts at Honolulu’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Dozens of computer models now used in forecasting did not exist when Iniki hit the state 20 years ago, they say.

While it’s a relief to take comfort in such advances, emergency preparedness is now and has always been a collaborative mission, one involving everyone from the uninitiated resident on up. It’s everyone’s duty, essentially, to become initiated in the critical issues. The online resources posted by Hawaii State Civil Defense (www.scd.hawaii.gov/preparedness.html) are worth exploring, as a start.

If Iniki taught us anything, it should be that it’s impossible to be too prepared for a threatening storm. Even if the storm around the corner doesn’t deliver on that threat, it’s only a matter of time before one arrives that will. Expect the unexpected.