There is much at stake in Tuesday’s election, from control of the White House and who will represent Hawaii in open congressional seats to who will serve as mayor of Hawaii island and Oahu prosecutor.
But the most hotly contested race is for Honolulu mayor, which has become a referendum on the most expensive public works project in state history: Oahu’s $5.26 billion rail system.
The candidates for Honolulu mayor are making their final push to claim whatever undecided votes may still be up for grabs.
For voters who are unsure of who they want to see in Honolulu Hale, but know they want the rail project built, former city Managing Director Kirk Caldwell is making the rounds to get his name out and convince them he is the one who can build rail better while also concentrating on the roads, sewers and trash collection.
For undecideds who think the rail project is too costly, and that other transportation solutions need to be explored to allow tax dollars to go toward long-standing unmet infrastructure needs, former Gov. Ben Cayetano is walking the community and laying out the case for why the project should be stopped.
The arguments may be falling on deaf ears, one political analyst says.
"There’s not really many undecided," said Neal Milner, University of Hawaii emeritus professor of political science. "This is an election in which folks decided pretty early one way or the other."
He added: "It’s been pretty stable all along, actually. It’s been a low level of undecided for a long period of time."
According to the most recent Hawaii Poll, conducted Oct. 15-22 for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now, 5 percent of respondents said they did not know or refused to answer when asked whom they would vote for in the election for Honolulu mayor.
Of the rest, the poll showed the majority favored Caldwell, 53 percent to 42 percent.
The numbers, a snapshot in time, aren’t stopping either candidate from pushing forward as if the race were dead even.
"We’re cautiously optimistic," Cayetano said. "We know it’s going to be close. I think that what’s important is the turnout."
He said the campaign is doing all it can to increase turnout, with more sign-waving rallies and personal appearances at community events. The campaign held its final community forum Thursday night in Kailua.
"This is unlike any other campaign because I’ve never had $3 million thrown against me before," Cayetano said of rail supporters, mainly the Pacific Resource Partnership, which launched numerous attacks against him. "In the past we’ve always been able to mount a pretty good media campaign and grass-roots campaign.
"At this particular point, we’re relying heavily on our grass roots. Last forum in Kailua we got a very good response. So we’re doing that kind of thing."
Caldwell has run his campaign the same way from the beginning, when he was a significant underdog — high energy and high enthusiasm, working long days that include sign-waving, walking door to door and trying to meet as many people as he can.
Despite the poll numbers turning in his favor for the first time all year, Caldwell said he sees no reason to change his tactics now, practically on the eve of Election Day.
"I can really feel the momentum," he said. "We’re definitely on an upward swing. But we’re not taking anything for granted. We’re working as hard as possible to earn every single vote we can and to finish really strong."
And that means at least two more days of rising early for sign-waving and meeting more people.
"I think our message has been consistent throughout," he said. "A mayor is someone who deals with all kinds of issues — the up-close-and-personal, the nitty-gritty ones like sewer and water and road repaving and cutting grass and those kinds of things, and, yes, the big infrastructure projects that move our city forward into the 21st century.
"Ben has pretty much been a single-issue candidate, talking about killing the largest construction project in the history of Hawaii and focused on that while I focused on a lot of different things."
The most recent poll is a change of fortune for Caldwell, who launched his campaign in January and was immediately the underdog, facing two well-known opponents in Cayetano, the former two-term governor, and incumbent Mayor Peter Carlisle, the popular former prosecutor who won the 2010 special election for the post with only about half the money raised then by Caldwell.
Although Cayetano received the most votes in the August primary, 44.7 percent, he fell short of the 50 percent majority needed to win the office outright. Caldwell was second with 29.4 percent and moved on to Tuesday’s runoff with Cayetano.
Handicapping the race has been difficult for the veteran political analyst Milner, mainly because of the lack of available data. Only one other media poll has been taken, and it shows the race in a statistical dead heat.
Milner is cautious to predict who might win.
"I think the best thing you can say about the race right now on the basis of (the polls) over time is that Caldwell has caught up — that he’s made the race closer," he said. "That, to me, is the most cautious approach.
"I have a hunch that he’s caught up pretty darn much, but that’s just a gut feeling. What the polls tell you right now is pretty limited."
