Early voting in Hawaii before today’s election was slightly ahead of the last presidential election in 2008, but political analysts do not expect turnout to be much higher than the 66 percent of registered voters who cast ballots four years ago.
The state Office of Elections said about 41,000 people statewide took advantage of early walk-in voting and that counties had received about 139,000 absentee ballots through the weekend.
Voter registration is at 705,668, the elections office said, up from 691,356 four years ago.
Hawaii has had among the lowest levels of voter participation in the nation — last when measured by the eligible population — despite some interesting campaigns in the past few elections.
A Hawaii-born presidential candidate was not enough to boost turnout in 2008, so analysts are skeptical about whether President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign, a Honolulu mayor’s race that could determine the future of a $5.26 billion rail project, and what could be a once-in-a-generation contest for the U.S. Senate will drive voters to the polls this year.
"At this point we’re running very close to the 2008 turnout," said Rex Quidilla, spokesman for the Office of Elections.
Democrats held their traditional election eve rally at the Mooheau Bandstand in Hilo on Monday, with many optimistic that Obama’s presence on the ballot will help Democratic candidates in other campaigns.
U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono, who is running against former Gov. Linda Lingle for the Senate, and incumbent U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, who is in a rematch with former U.S. Rep. Charles Djou for the House, are Democrats who could benefit from another strong Obama performance in the islands. Obama won Hawaii’s four electoral votes with 72 percent of the vote in 2008, the largest victory in any state and second only to the District of Columbia.
Higher-than-average turnout in the Honolulu mayor’s race among Republicans and independents who oppose the rail project could help Lingle and Djou, who oppose rail. Former Gov. Ben Cayetano, who would attempt to halt the rail project if elected mayor, is facing former acting Mayor Kirk Caldwell, who favors the project.
"We have an incredibly strong team for Hawaii, and the most important thing for us is that we keep it unified," said Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz, who is directing the Democrats’ coordinated campaign. "And that means a united congressional delegation that will support Hawaii’s priorities."
David Chang, chairman of the state Republican Party, said Hawaii, which has been dominated by Democrats since the 1950s, has ranked near the bottom on issues such as education and business climate and near the top for high taxes and cost of living.
"I think to make Hawaii better for the future, we really do need a viable, sustainable two-party system where we have a dialogue on ideas," he said.
The Office of Elections said it is ready to handle election day operations in Hawaii County. The state stepped in because of concerns about the county’s preparation after more than a dozen polling places opened late during the August primary, prompting Gov. Neil Abercrombie to extend voting hours.
"Everything is in line. We’re prepared," Quidilla said. "We’re hoping for a smooth election, like everyone else."
Hawaii County Clerk Jamae Kawauchi, who retains power over voter registration and absentee voting, said the county’s preparation is on track.
"We’re here to support the state," she said, "and we’re expecting the election to go smoothly."
