Expect muggy, voggy Kona weather this weekend, National Weather Service forecasters say. But, in a break with local beliefs, there’s only a small chance of rain over the Punahou Carnival today and Saturday.

“It’s going to be a lot drier than last weekend,” said Maureen Ballard, a forecaster with the National Weather Service.

Forecasters predict only a 20 percent chance of rain today and Saturday, when the winds will shift from the usual north-east trade winds to southerly, humid Kona winds from the southeast.

The southerly winds could bring some humidity and hazy vog from Kilauea volcano Saturday into Sunday.

The southerly sea breezes could also bring isolated afternoon showers to leeward areas.

“On Saturday the winds will start to get lighter, but you’ll notice it (vog) more on Sunday than Saturday,” Ballard said. “It will be short-lived.”

The trade winds should return Sunday night.