The state is juggling a lot of factors with the redevelopment of Kakaako, and the question of providing for enough educational support has risen on the list of public concerns.

In more conventional development proposals, involving subdivisions of single-family homes, townhouses and apartments, it’s a safe assumption that the new project will mirror others like it and attract a population that includes a sizeable count of school-age children.

The same may not be true of Kakaako, said Anthony Ching, executive director of the Hawaii Community Development Authority, which oversees the community’s buildout. The challenge state agencies face is to find the right formula for developers to support the educational needs of a community — one of somewhat unpredictable makeup — before it materializes.

Officials of the HCDA and the state Department of Education say discussions are on schedule, given that development is just beginning in earnest and future plans remain uncertain. Nonetheless, the door must be left open for the possible creation of a new elementary school serving the area, and thought must be given to the uniquely urban shape this school should take.

Ching said that HCDA’s study of the school issue so far puts the community’s current population at roughly 12,000, but only about 450 students in area schools have Kakaako addresses. By 2030, the projection is for the population size to more than double, to about 30,000. The working assumption, given the expected mix of affordable and upscale price points for the housing units, is that a similar percentage of school-age children would apply. And this means, Ching said, that it’s reasonable to project a count of 900 or more school-age children.

While little about this process can be considered certain, Ching said the expectation is that there’s capacity in the existing schools to accommodate students that can be anticipated in the next few years. The nearest elementary schools, Royal and Queen Kaahumanu, have some room now, and there’s even more room in Central and Washington middle schools and at McKinley High School.

Currently McKinley is the only school within the redevelopment zone boundaries; the district’s remaining public charter school, Voyager, is moving over the next few weeks to a new rented home, the former campus of Our Redeemer Lutheran School on Wilder Avenue in Makiki.

The 3.4-acre site originally designated for school development has been erased from the plans for the 690 Pohukaina complex. If this parcel no longer will accommodate a school, other alternatives must be explored. Ray L’Heureux, assistant superintendent in charge of DOE facilities, said a vertical design for a compact urban school setting is being studied as part of a facilities master plan now under development.

If such a school site can’t be folded back into the Pohukaina project, it might be situated on a future redeveloped corner of the block now dominated by McKinley.

And the DOE needs to develop a formula for the impact fee that, according to a 2007 law, developers must pay to offset the cost of providing public education to the community.

In the past, developers participated in what was called the School Fair Share Contribution Program whenever they received their land entitlements. But according to a DOE fact sheet on the new law, the DOE must define districts where additional schools or campus upgrades must be provided.

A variable factor in calculating the fee amount is what’s called the Student Generation Rate (SGR). For example, golf course homes in resort areas are expected to generate fewer students than "affordable single-family homes on the outer edge of urban growth," according to the fact sheet.

The range of units planned for Kakaako don’t fall neatly into either demographic. And because of this uncertainty, state officials need some outside-the-box thinking to preserve some flexibility.

It may turn out that the best use of impact-fee money is the expansion or improvement of existing schools rather than building a new campus, but it would be smart for the state to keep its options open.