It’s the lull before the storm for a lot of teams this weekend. The Oahu Interscholastic Association Red Conference playoffs kick off today. Top-tier teams Mililani, Campbell, Farrington and Kahuku have opening-round byes, while remaining qualifiers need a win to reach next week’s quarterfinals.

That means a team like Waianae, ranked No. 5 in the state, could see a promising season come to a halt against an upset-minded Castle squad.

It’ll also be pau hana time for Leilehua (5-3, 3-3 OIA Red), the fifth-place team in the West, or Moanalua (3-5, 3-3), the East’s fourth-place finisher. The Mules have history on their side, to say the least. Since 2007, when a man-child sophomore quarterback known as Andrew Manley sparked a run to the OIA Red and state titles, the Mules had qualified for the state tourney every year — until last season.

In fact, Leilehua had reached the semifinal round of the HHSAA state championships five years in a row until last fall. A 14-7 loss in the OIA Red semifinals to Kahuku was followed by a 52-26 loss to Farrington in the third-place game. That sent the Mules home. Early.

Kahuku went on to capture its second state crown in a row.

During that same stretch of mighty Mule success, Moanalua rose from the depths. In ’07, Na Menehune didn’t qualify for the OIA Red playoffs. In ’08, they didn’t qualify for the OIA White playoffs. But in ’09, they edged Kalaheo 21-20 in the White semifinal round, then outlasted Aiea 21-7 to take the league trophy. Then came a 17-14 loss to Hawaii Prep in the Division II state tourney.

The next three seasons, however, were a time of soaring momentum for the once-struggling program. After losing to Radford 29-22 in the OIA Red playoffs to end the ’10 season, Moanalua reached the playoffs again in ’11 and ousted Kapolei 30-13.

That’s where postseason pain at the hands of the Mules is becoming familiar. Leilehua eliminated Moanalua 40-7 to end Na Menehune’s ’11 season.

Last year, Moanalua again won its playoff opener, topping Waipahu 31-20. Then came a 29-3 loss to Leilehua to end the season. Again.

This time, the aerial attack of Moanalua may be better positioned to score more than once against the Mules. In the playoff loss to Leilehua in 2012, Micah Kaneshiro passed for 90 yards and was picked off three times. His favorite receivers were straitjacketed: Sheldon Pagba had four catches for 24 yards and Donald Lambert had one grab for 26 yards.

This year’s Na Menehune are more given to throwing the ball than ever. Kaneshiro averaged 20.6 attempts per game last season. This year, he has almost as many completions (203) in eight games as his total attempts (206) from last year. Kaneshiro is averaging a whopping 45 attempts per game and has accumulated 2,424 passing yards — 303 per outing.

The most pass-happy offense in recent history has its ups and downs. Moanalua lost its first three games, but righted the ship without solidifying a rushing component. Last year’s leading rusher, Ishmil Scott, had 98 yards in the loss to Leilehua. This season, he has been out most weeks with injury and has just 22 carries for 102 yards.

Kaneshiro has 23 touchdown passes, matching last season’s total, to go with 15 interceptions. That 15-INT total seems high, but it’s an improvement over last year (19 picks). His pick rate is one per 24 attempts, which is in range of elite passers like Saint Louis’ Ryder Kuhns (one per 39.8 attempts).

Kaneshiro’s rate is similar to ‘Iolani’s Austin Jim On (one per 23.8) or Campbell’s Isaac Hurd (one per 29.3). Few can approach the pick rate of Punahou’s Larry Tuileta (one per 74.5 attempts) or Mililani’s McKenzie Milton (one per 60.5).

Moanalua’s ridiculously entertaining pass-to-run ratio (6 to 1) has made fun time of game nights for Lambert (46 receptions, 573 yards, eight touchdowns), Chad Aragon (56, 680, 7) and Jason Sharsh (52, 828, 6).

Not even Leilehua put up massive numbers like that over the past seven seasons. Moanalua, in that sense, has out-muled the Mules.

Leilehua has its share of offensive weapons with versatile running back Ikaika Piceno (590 yards and seven TDs from scrimmage), Tristin Kamaka (38 catches, 479 yards, six TDs) and Dustin Ancheta-Maeda (31, 371, 3).

Mack Eberhardt has been steady at quarterback (1,082 yards, nine TDs). One of the unique numbers for the Mules: backup quarterbacks Kalanimoku Pauole and Justin Jenks have a combined 10 touchdown passes in just 81 attempts. Jenks lines up more at wide receiver and Pauole can be as risk-taking (four interceptions thrown in just 51 attempts) as he is exhilarating. He is one of the best scramblers in the league.

Leilehua showed a unique coverage early in the season, regularly planting a safety 20 to 30 yards back, almost like a center fielder on the warning track. Of the old Polo Grounds.

In past matchups, it’s been about Moanalua’s defense trying to find ways to counter Leilehua’s air force.

Tonight, it could be the other way around.

THIS WEEK’S GAMES

FRIDAY’S GAMES

Pac-Five (1-6, 1-4 ILH) vs. No. 1 Punahou (7-0, 5-0), Aloha Stadium — Statistics can be misleading. Last year, Larry Tuileta had a sterling passer rating of 189.52. This year, with a mix of new and experienced linemen and a revised playbook, he has been more dynamic and unpredictable even as his rating dropped to 159.93. He has thrown for 1,444 yards and 16 TDs with just two picks, but has been on the run more than last year.

Sometimes his need to run was bad — early-season protection breakdowns — but lately it’s become a good thing with the triple-option package the Buffanblu unveiled last week against Saint Louis. The direct beneficiary is Luke Morris (5-11, 170), who has been sure-handed as Tuileta’s pitch man out of that three-running back, sledgehammer formation.

No. 2 Kamehameha (7-1, 4-1 ILH) at Damien (3-4, 2-3) — The Warriors have learned how to roll with change. First it was the departure of coach David Stant, the early summer hiring of Doug Cosbie and, now, the arrival of new offensive line coach Vince Manuwai.

The former Jacksonville Jaguars offensive lineman, who starred at the University of Hawaii and Farrington High, steps in after the departure of offensive coordinator Donovan Raiola. Eric Kane also returns to the varsity staff to assist with the offensive line. Raiola left after offensive line coach Dean Chung was forced out last week. The offensive schemes that have produced big numbers for running backs Brandon Kahookele and Kainoa Simao — a combined 1,403 yards and 13 touchdowns — will remain. A big key to the Warriors’ ground-and-pound success is an offensive line anchored by center Kaiwi Chung, son of the departed position coach.

Kailua (2-6, 2-4 OIA Red) at Kapolei (5-3, 3-3) — The Hurricanes lost some momentum with road losses to Waianae and Campbell in the final two weeks of the regular season.

Kapolei’s most difficult foes were teams with mobile quarterbacks — Mililani’s McKenzie Milton, Waianae’s Kekoa Kaluhiokalani and Campbell’s Isaac Hurd. Kailua has struggled often this season, but the nimble feet of sophomore scrambler Noah Auld has kept hope alive.

Waipahu (2-6, 1-5 OIA Red) vs. McKinley (4-4, 3-3), Ticky Vasconcellos Stadium — Out West, the Marauders saw all kinds of offensive weaponry on the other side of the ball. But they did not face a 5-11, 235-pound wildcat running quarterback like Mathias Tuitele-Iafeta. The talented linebacker/running back/punter added slotback and quarterback to his list of duties in recent games, mostly with positive results. He doesn’t throw the deep ball, but he hits enough of the short stuff to move the chains and keep the Tigers close.

Meanwhile, McKinley’s defense will have the task of corralling Waipahu’s option attack, something rarely seen in the East.

Pearl City (5-3, 5-2 OIA White) at Radford (7-1, 6-1) — Both teams have clinched playoff berths so there may be reason to hide a few pages or chapters of the playbook. The Chargers were replicating the late-season success of last year’s squad, winning five in a row before last week’s 31-6 loss to Kaiser.

They haven’t seen a southpaw quarterback yet this fall, which is what Radford has in Cody Lui-Yuen.

The senior has passed for 2,352 yards and 31 touchdowns with only five picks. Absolom Henry, a 6-3, 190-pound junior, is averaging 21.5 yards per catch (44 grabs, 945 yards, 12 TDs) and Jameson Pasigan (38, 661, 13) is having another stellar season.

Kalani (5-3, 5-2 OIA White) at Waialua (3-5, 3-4) — The Bulldogs were solid in a 37-8 win over Anuenue last week. Quarterback Taleon Lele is more dangerous as a scrambler (348 rushing yards, 6 TDs) than he is as a passer. They’ve struggled against pass-first teams and will be tested by Kalani’s fleet of pass catchers.

Three Falcons have at least 34 receptions. Trevor Yamashita (45, 783, 8) has progressed as their deep threat, which made Brandon Roberts’ move to slotback a luxury. Roberts (48, 615, 13) and sophomore Blaise Manabe (34, 467, 5) have benefited from the accelerated development of senior quarterback Noah Brum (2,406 yards, 31 TDs).

Anuenue (0-8, 0-7 OIA White) at Nanakuli (3-5, 3-4) — Chazz Troutman’s illustrious career on the gridiron wearing the black and gold will come to a close. Anuenue has an intriguing playmaker of its own in senior offensive lineman/defensive lineman/running back Keola Lindsey, a 6-foot, 310-pound senior.

Konawaena (6-2, 5-1 BIIF) at Kealakehe (3-4, 3-3) — The reformatting of the league schedule has forced D-I and D-II teams to meet, which is good news for fans in Kona. In recent years, these rivals didn’t play, claiming that the other school wasn’t interested in any kind of exhibition game — despite the almost-guarantee of a sellout crowd at either venue.

King Kekaulike (1-5, 1-5 MIL) vs. Maui (4-3, 2-3), War Memorial

Stadium — The Sabers won four of their first five games before falling to the league’s premier teams in the past two weeks, including a 7-0 loss to Baldwin. They had little trouble with King Kekaulike in their first matchup, winning 32-7 more than a month ago.

Keaau (1-5, 1-5 BIIF) at Kamehameha-Hawaii (4-4, 3-2) — The Cougars broke into the win column with a 14-6 victory over Honokaa last week. The Warriors would love to beat their cross-town rival without losing anyone to injury with the BIIF D-II playoffs around the corner.

SATURDAY’S GAMES

Castle (3-5, 2-4 OIA Red) at No. 5 Waianae (6-2, 4-2) — This is a prime opportunity for the visiting Knights, who had to scrap their way to a playoff berth after two heartbreaking losses at midseason. Waianae nearly got a first-round bye, but finished with the same record as Campbell, and Campbell had the tiebreaker (head to head).

History might be with the Knights. They knocked off Waianae 23-16 in the 2009 playoffs. The game was at Torii Field and, as they are this week, the Seariders were ranked No. 5, while Castle was unranked.

No. 9 Lahainaluna (7-0, 5-0 MIL) at Kamehameha-Maui (1-6, 1-5) — It was bound to happen eventually. The Lunas dominated King Kekaulike 55-6 last week, yet fell one spot in the Honolulu Star-Advertiser Top 10. A nonconference slate against Kapaa and Mt. Douglas (Canada) did little to impress voters, apparently.

The Lunas have a prolific rushing attack out of their modified wing-T offense with a stable of ballcarriers — primarily Christian Whitehead, Jared Rocha-Isalas and quarterback Sione Filikitonga — each averaging more than 8 yards per attempt.

Hilo (7-1, 6-0 BIIF) vs. Waiakea (3-6, 2-4), Dr. Francis Wong Stadium — The Vikings have come a long way. They lost 38-24 to Konawaena in an exhibition game back in August, then defeated the Wildcats last week to remain unbeaten in league play.

Running back Devin Preston (945 yards, 6 TDs) has been a bright spot for the Warriors.

Waimea (1-6, 0-4 KIF) vs. Kapaa (3-3, 2-2), Vidinha Stadium — The Menehune haven’t tasted victory since opening week. The Warriors are mathematically still in contention for the league title. They need to beat Waimea and first-place Kauai, and hope Waimea can upset Kauai on Oct. 26.

Honokaa (0-7, 0-6 BIIF) at Hawaii Prep (6-2, 4-2) — Ka Makani are back on track with a two-game winning streak since losing to Konawaena. Between the three rivalry games on Big Island fields this weekend (Konawaena-Kealakehe, Keaau-KSH), this one is the oldest by far. It may also have lost the most luster.

STANDINGS AND STATISTICS