In this gubernatorial race, every candidate counts

You have to go back 20 years to find a Hawaii race for governor as dicey as the upcoming contest next month.

Back in 1994, there were three major combatants: the Democratic lieutenant governor, Ben Cayetano; the Republican, former U.S. Rep. Pat Saiki; and the newly minted independent, Honolulu Mayor Frank Fasi.

There was also a fourth candidate: Kioni Dudley, representing the Green Party. His race was just a blip on the radar screen of 1994, and even if all his votes went to Fasi, Cayetano would have still won.

This year, things are not that settled.

Democratic state Sen. David Ige and Republican former Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona are running neck and neck, followed by former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, a Democrat running as an Independent.

The race is so tight that it is worth watching votes that go to the fourth candidate, Jeff Davis, a Libertarian who has never run for office.

Jim Loomis, political strategist and adviser to the late mayor, notes that the fringe candidates can cause trouble.

"Third-party candidates are very frustrating because they have the potential to thwart the will of a majority of the voters," Loomis said in an email interview.

"No matter how wacky they might be, the more they talk, the more scattered votes they’ll get … and those few votes could make the difference."

Former Gov. Cayetano also said in an email, "as a general rule, major candidates ignore minor candidates to avoid giving them publicity."

Saiki, who is now state GOP chairwoman, said in a telephone interview that the difference between this race and 1994 is that back then, Fasi’s entrance into the race cost her a 30-point lead in the polls.

She explained that Fasi ran a campaign to outflank her on the right and lure away her conservative supporters.

"Fasi was determined to be the spoiler and ran just to beat me," Saiki said.

This year, she said, Hannemann looks like a spoiler for Ige because "Mufi is still a Democrat and Democrats are going to feel a great loyalty to him."

Saiki’s running mate, former state Sen. Fred Hemming, agreed, saying this year "the big fish in the small pond is Hannemann.

"He will do as Fasi did in ’94 — split off some opposition votes."

Republican strategist Dylan Nonaka noted that he was a freshman at the Big Island’s Konawaena High School during the 1994 election, but has studied it.

"Aiona and Ige will share 80 percent of the vote; I think they will get around 40 percent each and the winner will be by a few points," Nonaka said in an email.

Hannemann will damage Ige, Nonaka speculated, because he sees blue-collar Democrats going to Hannemann.

Davis, however, is likely to cause problems for the Aiona campaign.

"Hard-core economic conservatives will want to vote for (Davis) since Duke does not excite them that much.

"In the end I don’t think (Davis) will get more than 3 percent, so he won’t be a huge factor — but if Duke loses by less than 3 percent, those votes could make the difference," Nonaka said.

Now here comes the "strategery" part, according to Nonaka: Ige must convince loyal Democrats that voting for Hannemann will be a waste because he cannot win and it will make it easier for Aiona.

Aiona’s job is to "get economic libertarians to understand that if they stick to hard-core principal and vote for Davis, they could be helping Ige win."

So this race is not just about winning the hearts and minds; it is also about steering voters around the pitfalls.