Tuesday’s election will start to show the transition of the generations, from boomers to millennials.
Baby boomers, considered the dominant and most powerful generational group in politics, is giving way to an even larger demographic: boomers’ kids, the millennial generation. Boomers in the U.S., estimated at about 76 million, were born between 1946 and 1964. Millennials, born from 1980 to 1999, number 87 million.
A new poll taken by the Harvard Institute of Politics surveyed 2,000 of the group, finding that they are becoming more conservative and showing big divisions along racial lines.
The findings give Republicans new growing room among a voting group that had previously been owned by the Democrats.
"Our survey finds that likely young voters prefer Republican control of the Congress by a slim 4-point margin of 51 to 47 percent," the poll’s summary says.
"A lesson here, for us, is that young people, millennials, are no longer the political outliers that they once were," said John Della Volpe, polling director, on a conference call with reporters.
"In contrast to where we were four years ago, the youth vote is very much up for grabs politically."
On a national level, the findings show a serious dislike for politics. Millennials say they strongly support working for the community, but not within a political party. And the survey also says there is a profound dislike for Congress.
"A majority of young Americans seem content to dispense with all of Congress, with 53 percent saying they would be willing to recall and replace all members; the number rises to 62 percent when only the most likely voters are surveyed," the report states.
The key in the Harvard poll is among those surveyed who say they are likely to vote. That group shows the biggest switch from D to R. In 2010 those wanting a Republican-controlled Congress trailed by 12 points. Today the number is plus 4 percentage points.
The survey reports that Democratic millennials are also less likely to vote compared to GOP millennials, by a 12-point margin: 42 percent to 30 percent.
"Millennials care about the ‘me’ and ‘now.’ ‘What about me?’ ‘I want it now, the future can wait.’ It is the opposite of what our parents taught us. It is the opposite of what old-school, true-blue, Democrats stand for. Millennials are looking at the GOP brand and liking its products," says one local, young and politically active voter.
Another young voter who works in local politics says that among her friends who vote, most are liberal, not conservative.
"They don’t like churches telling people who to vote for; they don’t like policies that get into personal decisions," she said.
"Dem messages don’t resonate; neither do GOP messages," she said.
A veteran House and Senate member points out that the millennial generation has been hurt more than most by the Great Recession.
"Millennials split between social issues and economic issues. They are more likely to support the Democratic social issues — gay marriage, immigration, legalizing marijuana — but more traditional in supporting economic issues," he said.
The local lesson to be learned, he said, is that the economy, when it means having a job or being able to get a job, is just as important as being a social liberal.
As Hawaii goes to vote Tuesday, this has already shown up in voters rejecting the liberal Gov. Neil Abercrombie for the more fiscally conservative Democratic state Sen. David Ige; and the Republican James "Duke" Aiona attempting to moderate his conservative stands on gay marriage and finding room for government housing plans in his GOP platform.
Of course, the best social welfare program is a job. As Bill Clinton successfully reminded: "It’s the economy, stupid."
Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.