Shifting tone, GOP governors will face a test
NASHVILLE, Tenn. » Four years ago, a wave of new Republican governors administered shock therapy to the states they won, rolling back union rights, approving restrictions on abortion and deeply cutting taxes and spending.
Republicans triumphed again in the 2014 midterm governor’s races, winning re-election almost everywhere and expanding control to Democratic strongholds like Illinois and Maryland.
But rather than reprising the Tea Party insurrection of 2010, Republican governors taking their oaths this month have expressed more muted, less ideological priorities.
"One of the things about being governor is when you’re forced to actually balance your budget it makes people become much more pragmatic very quickly," said Gov. Bill Haslam of Tennessee, who easily won re-election in November and was recently elected chairman of the Republican Governors Association.
Yet that pragmatism is likely to be tested in the 24 states where Republicans also control the legislature and where bills are expected that would further restrict abortion, roll back the Common Core education standards and ensure that the president’s health care law does not gain a foothold in any more states. Many conservative lawmakers in these states see a turn toward moderation by Republican leaders as being at odds with the public mood, particularly after such a decisive electoral sweep.
"Conservatives really did vote conservative, and they want the leadership to reflect that," said John Cooper, a conservative state senator in Arkansas, where a fellow Republican, Asa Hutchinson, just won the governor’s race. "I think Asa knows that."
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The dynamic is different in each state capital, but in most the governors will probably take the lead, according to a sampling of state lawmakers and strategists. In Nevada, for example, Republicans now control both chambers of the Legislature and the governor’s office for the first time since 1929. Gov. Brian Sandoval, who was sworn in for a second term last week in Carson City, has gained the upper hand in alliance with moderate Republicans in the Assembly against a crop of no-new-taxes conservatives.
Chuck Muth, president of the conservative group Citizen Outreach who has been critical of Sandoval and the moderate legislative leaders, said he believed, albeit somewhat reluctantly, that the 2014 elections were more a rejection of Democrats than a mandate for ambitious conservative action, as was the case in 2010.
"This election was not a referendum to go crazy, though I wish it was otherwise," Muth said. "It’s a tough high wire act to both be a conservative activist and push for conservative legislation and yet at the same time acknowledge that political reality."
If Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin was the quintessential Republican victor of 2010, jolting his traditionally progressive state by ending public-employee collective bargaining, no one appears poised to be this year’s Scott Walker – not even Walker himself. As he mulls a run for president, Walker has said he views a so-called right-to-work bill gaining momentum in the Legislature, which would further limits unions, as a distraction. With Wisconsin facing a $2.2 billion budget gap over two years, Walker is also playing down suggestions he made a year ago to deeply slash the income tax.
In Ohio, Gov. John Kasich, also thought to have presidential ambitions, wants to raise taxes on energy drilling companies to pay for an income tax cut over the objection of a Tea Party faction in the General Assembly. Gov. Rick Snyder of Michigan, who overcame conservative objections to financial aid for Detroit, is proposing higher gasoline taxes to improve roads, an idea that is unpopular on his right.
The prospect of sweeping new tax cuts – a cornerstone of Republican orthodoxy – seems to have diminished. In part that is because incumbents first elected four years ago have already enacted cuts, but Republican governors also seem to be reacting to the cautionary example of Kansas.
There, Gov. Sam Brownback pushed large business and income tax cuts in 2012 and 2013, promising the loss of revenue would be made up by a business boom. Instead, revenues plummeted, the state faces a big budget shortfall, and a backlash nearly cost Brownback, a Republican, re-election.
In Florida, Gov. Rick Scott, who was sworn in Tuesday, laid out an agenda that called for spending billions more on schools, the environment and transportation – a sharp departure from the $3.3 billion in education cuts in his first term, when he also turned away billions in federal aid for light rail.
In Arizona, the newly elected Republican governor, Doug Ducey, promised in his inauguration speech Tuesday not to raise taxes but omitted mention of campaign pledges to cut income taxes each year. That omission surprised few, given that the state faces a substantial and growing shortfall.
Several Republican governors, including Haslam of Tennessee and those in Wyoming and North Carolina, have announced their support for some form of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act, arguing that it is fiscally smart to accept the billions of dollars in federal aid.
Conservative lawmakers, who are still confident they can block these efforts, argue that their resistance is supported by the election results.
"The November elections proved that conservatives are winning the national argument against Obamacare," said Jeremy Durham, the Republican majority whip in the Tennessee House.
"It’s surprising," Durham said of the governor’s moderate course. "Because it’s a very conservative electorate, and if he wanted to purse conservative policies he’s got the backing."
Conservative lawmakers may also still carry the day on some big issues by passing bills that governors reluctantly sign rather than go against their own party. That is akin to what happened with Gov. Pat McCrory of North Carolina, who positioned himself as a moderate while running for office, then signed one of the nation’s most restrictive abortion bills passed by conservatives in the General Assembly in 2013.
Among the Republican Party’s biggest election heroes this year are the four taking over in states previously led by Democrats – Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts.
Gov.-elect Larry Hogan of Maryland, who won the most surprising upset of 2014 in a deeply Democratic state, said he had no plans "to push in a conservative direction."
"My election had nothing to do with partisan politics," Hogan said in an interview. He said his agenda was "to fix a broken economy," which in his view includes high taxes, an unfriendly business climate and a looming budget gap.
In Illinois, Gov.-elect Bruce Rauner, a former finance executive who is taking over the state with the lowest credit rating in the country, has warned of difficult times ahead.
"I ain’t going to be Mr. Popularity for a little while," he told a meeting of farmers last month.
He has pledged not to restore a temporary 5 percent income tax rate that dropped to 3.75 percent on Jan. 1. The lost revenue will leave the state with a multibillion-dollar shortfall in its next budget.
Rauner, who is to be sworn in Monday, has refused to identify any cuts to services in advance of his first budget proposal next month, but he is sure to buck the priorities of Democrats who run the Legislature. Political analysts predict he will eventually be forced to accept higher taxes, at least in the short run.
But in some states, the true direction a governor will take is simply a matter of speculation.
In Arkansas, which will have a state government completely controlled by Republicans for the first time in over a century, many expect Hutchinson to proceed in the same sort of pragmatic style as his Democratic predecessor, Mike Beebe.
"I don’t see a dramatic shift in policy between the two," said Jonathan Dismang, a Republican who is the president pro tempore of the Senate.
But with Hutchinson having yet to declare a firm stance on issues like Medicaid expansion, this is only supposition. Lawmakers offering a contrary read are just as confident.
"I don’t agree with that statement at all; I see a lot of difference between the two," said Cooper, the conservative state senator. "And I think after six months or a year, that will be pretty evident."
Campbell Robertson and Trip Gabriel, New York Times
© 2015 The New York Times Company