Scheduling nonconference opponents can be a little like "Goldilocks and The Three Bears."
Coaches weigh hard vs. soft in trying to get it "just right."
The difficulty is in trying to predict, a year or two in advance, just how good another team will be prior to putting them on the schedule. And with the increased importance placed on the Ratings Percentage Index for top-16 seeding and hosting duties in the NCAA tournament, it becomes even trickier.
Play the best team in a bad conference and one’s RPI will take a hit. Lose that match and it’s a disastrous free-fall.
Beat a middle-of-the-pack team in a highly ranked conference and good things can happen. Lose "as expected" and the damage is palatable.
Hawaii can control which teams are on its preseason schedule while being stuck with what appears to be somewhat mediocre Big West. However, it has no control how those teams — Big West or not — do when not playing the Rainbow Wahine.
This year’s preseason tournament slate may not be as sexy to fans as some in the past, with only two "name" teams — No. 4 Florida and No. 20 UCLA — ranked in the AVCA preseason Top 25. Still, both American and Wichita State are receiving votes in the poll and are picked to win their conferences, the Eagles in the Patriot and the Shockers the Missouri Valley.
Plus the Rainbow Wahine’s RPI will get a boost just by playing teams in the power conferences, regardless of how those opponents fare the rest of the season. Besides UCLA, Hawaii plays Oregon State of the Pac-12 and Iowa of the Big Ten; the Bruins were picked to finish eighth and the Beavers ninth in the Pac-12, while the Hawkeyes were 11th in the numerically challenged 14-team Big Ten.
Where Hawaii’s RPI will take a hit is when playing two Big Sky teams in Idaho (picked to finish fifth in the conference) and Eastern Washington (eighth), and when hosting the WAC’s Cal State Bakersfield (fourth) twice and San Diego State (sixth) of the Mountain West.
"The schedule is what it is and, to me, it’s very challenging," Rainbow Wahine coach Dave Shoji said in beginning his 41st season in Manoa. "Florida is top five and UCLA always has the potential to be a national contender. Iowa will have Big Ten talent.
"All we can control is how we play."
Hawaii will be tested in all three of its tournaments, beginning with this week’s Chevron Invitational. After opening with Idaho on Friday, the Wahine face Wichita State with all seven of its starters back, including three who played in the 3-0 loss to Hawaii in the 2013 Shocker Classic.
No. 18 Hawaii — its lowest preseason ranking since the poll began in 1982 — did not beat a ranked team last year until knocking off No. 25 Duke in the first round of the NCAA tournament. The Rainbow Wahine finished 1-6 against ranked opponents, including two five-set losses to Long Beach State during the 49ers’ undefeated run in the Big West.
This year, Hawaii and its 12 returnees were a near-unanimous choice to win a ninth Big West conference crown. That was hardly a surprise considering the Rainbow Wahine have five starters back and one of the best incoming classes in the country in two-time AVCA two-year-college national player of the year Annie Mitchem and highly touted freshmen Casey Castillo, McKenna Granato and Natasha Burns (possible redshirt after breaking her hand last week).
Defending champion Long Beach State, with one vote, was picked second but have big pukas to fill with the losses of honorable mention All-Americans Bre Mackie and Chisom Okpala, and libero Tyler Jackson.
To avoid conflicts with UH football, the schedule was reworked and the Wahine’s final home match is Nov. 1.
2015 Rainbow Wahine volleyball schedule
* denotes Big West Conference match. All times Hawaii time. Home matches at the Stan Sheriff Center.
AUGUST |
|
Chevron Invitational |
28 |
Oregon State vs. Wichita State, 4:30 p.m. |
|
Idaho at Hawaii, 7 p.m. |
29 |
Idaho vs. Oregon State, 4:30 p.m. |
|
Wichita State at Hawaii, 7 p.m. |
30 |
Idaho vs. Wichita State, 2:30 p.m. |
|
Oregon State at Hawaii, 5 p.m. |
SEPTEMBER |
|
Hawaiian Airlines Classic |
4 |
American vs. UCLA, 4:30 p.m. |
|
Iowa at Hawaii, 7 p.m. |
5 |
Iowa vs. UCLA, 4:30 p.m. |
|
American at Hawaii, 7 p.m. |
6 |
American vs. Iowa, 2:30 p.m. |
|
UCLA at Hawaii, 5 p.m. |
|
Outrigger Resorts Challenge |
10 |
Eastern Washington vs. Florida, 4:30 p.m. |
|
San Diego State at Hawaii, 7 p.m. |
11 |
Eastern Washington vs. San Diego State, 4:30 p.m. |
|
Florida at Hawaii, 7 p.m. |
12 |
Florida vs. San Diego State, 2:30 p.m. |
|
Eastern Washington at Hawaii, 7 p.m. |
18 |
vs. CSU Bakersfield, 7 p.m. |
20 |
Alumnae match, 3 p.m. |
|
vs. CSU Bakersfield, 5 p.m. |
25 |
vs. UC Santa Barbara, 7 p.m. * |
26 |
vs. Cal Poly, 7 p.m. * |
OCTOBER |
2 |
at CSU Fullerton, 4 p.m. * |
3 |
at UC Riverside, 3 p.m. * |
9 |
vs. CSUN, 7 p.m. * |
11 |
vs. Long Beach State, 5 p.m. * |
16 |
vs. UC Davis, 7 p.m. * |
17 |
vs. UC Irvine, 7 p.m. * |
30 |
vs. UC Riverside, 7 p.m. * |
NOVEMBER |
1 |
vs. CSU Fullerton, 5 p.m. * |
6 |
at Long Beach State, 5 p.m. * |
7 |
at CSUN, 5 p.m. * |
15 |
at UC Davis, 11 a.m. * |
17 |
at UC Irvine, 5 p.m. * |
19 |
at Cal Poly, 5 p.m.* |
21 |
at UC Santa Barbara, 5 p.m. * |
DECEMBER |
3-5 |
NCAA first and second rounds, TBA |
10-12 |
NCAA regionals |
|
at San Diego; Des Moines, Iowa; Lexington, Ky.; Austin, Texas |
17 & 19 |
NCAA final four at Omaha, Neb. |