Gov. David Ige starts winning or losing his second term now.

Even though the election may be three years away, his chances of victory are being calculated by the meetings, ideas and coordination going on today.

The plans need to be finished and sent to the printer maybe tomorrow, definitely before Christmas.

Incumbents don’t win elections because they are still there; they win because of accomplishments, because they did something.

Achievements in Hawaii state government take an excruciatingly long time.

Former House Speaker and 39-year legislative veteran Rep. Calvin Say knows the process and has some pointers for Ige.

"Look at the timing: You are in the second year of the two-year state budget; the new budget starts next July. By then, you have to start implementing whatever you want to campaign on.

"You don’t want to be coming back in 2017 and asking for money for proposals to act upon," Say said in an interview.

Say knows that even a governor spends his days tangled in red tape.

"There have to be formal requests for procurement, there is a formal bid process, then the hiring of the people to accomplish it, and all within a timeline for 2018," said Say.

Say likes to calculate that governors need two terms to get something accomplished, but, if they don’t act by the second year of the first term, there just isn’t enough time to put up anything solid.

"You want to show voters that you are an active governor doing your best to lead the state," Say said.

Right now is when state bureaucrats send their budget plans to the Budget and Finance Department.

By November, the budget negotiations between the departments and Budget and Finance are finished and the request goes to Ige. The governor has to turn it around and announce a new state budget by the middle of December.

The budget becomes the state’s chief policy document, the "we care about this because we are spending money for it" guide that carries the state forward.

So his upcoming budget and his 2016 State of the State address will be the signposts marking the way to Ige’s election. If they are not clear, neither is his re-election.

Former Gov. George R. Ariyoshi, Ige’s early supporter and mentor, faced his first re-election campaign as an elected governor (his first campaign was after succeeding the ailing Gov. John A. Burns) in 1976.

Even though Ariyoshi was running a state with soaring unemployment and a collapsing sugar industry, his 1976 State of the State speech was putting in motion the ideas, promises and concepts that would propel him to victory in 1978.

In that speech, Ariyoshi announced the creation of an Office of Consumer Protection, established the Public Utilities Commission and supported a Constitutional Convention, building state correctional facilities, including Kalihi’s OCCC, a sustainable agriculture program and a plan to "make Kakaako beautiful" with the establishment of the Hawaii Community Development Authority.

That sort of outline is what Say is hoping to hear from Ige.

"He has to prepare it already and show that the departments are moving on it already," advised Say.

Ige is an avid runner so he might want to consider the famous advice of marathoner Juma Ikangaa: "The will to win means nothing without the will to prepare."

Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.